The top touchdown pick for Commanders vs. Eagles using PRO data is a 25-1 banger of a prop.
If you’ve followed touchdown picks from Action PRO models this season, you’ve probably done well. And in the NFL postseason, expert touchdown data has nailed a +550 and a +500 prediction in back-to-back weeks.
It’s a trip to the Super Bowl on the line when the Commanders and Eagles meet for Round 3 in the Conference Championship Sunday. Both teams possess plenty of potential to light up the scoreboard.
And our pick to click will not be a popular choice for Sunday’s touchdown picks and props.
NFL Props, Touchdown Predictions: 25-1 Pick for Commanders vs. Eagles
By now, everyone and their grandma knows the touchdown scorers for the Eagles, who offer zero value in the TD market utilizing PRO Projections.
The Commanders are a completely different story.
Some shops are hanging longer prices in the anytime touchdown space, and one player’s price seems to have gotten way out of hand.
The best bet to score a touchdown for Washington-Philly Sunday is Commanders backup tight end John Bates.
Bates is +2500 to score at any point Sunday, which implies about a 3.8% chance. PRO Projections still give Bates a pulse, with a projection of 0.06 touchdowns — or a fair price closer to +1566.
The Commanders have played the same three tight ends all year: Zach Ertz, Bates, and rookie Ben Sinnott.
Bates has been eating into Sinnott’s production as the season progresses, and Washington doesn’t mind playing in two tight end sets.
Bates was targeted on the goal line last weekend vs. the Lions and might have had a touchdown if not for an errant throw from Jayden Daniels.
The best bang for your buck on a touchdown pick is Bates in Commanders vs. Eagles, producing a +2.2% edge from PRO Projections.
PRO TD Pick: John Bates Touchdown (+2500)
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