nba-player-props-wednesday-january-22

NBA Player Props for Wednesday, January 22: Picks for James Harden, Jaylen Wells

We have a total of three NBA player props for this Wednesday, and our staff of basketball betting experts is focused on some key players who could be in line for noteworthy performances in tonight’s contests.

Read below for our NBA player prop picks for Wednesday, January 22.

NBA Player Props for Wednesday, January 22

  • Jaylen Wells
  • James Harden
  • Kris Dunn

[subheader sizedown=”false” text=”Jaylen Wells Under 3.5 Rebounds (-105)” subtext=”Hornets vs Grizzlies, 8:00 p.m. ET” center=”false” logo1url=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nba/100/mem.png” link1=”https://www.actionnetwork.com/nba/odds/memphis-grizzlies” link1follow=”true” logo2url=”” link2=”” link2follow=”true” trailinglogourl=”” trailinglink=”” trailinglinkfollow=”true”][/subheader]

Memphis has a mostly clean injury report tonight, so I’m going back to this bet. Jaylen Wells is averaging 3.6 rebounds on 6.6 rebound chances this season, but those numbers are skewed by the Grizzlies‘ frequent injury issues.

Zach Edey, Desmond Bane, and Jaren Jackson Jr. are top 4 on the team in rebounds and top 5 in rebound chances per game. All of them are available tonight and should start alongside Wells and Ja Morant. With Edey/Bane/Jackson on the floor, Wells’ rebounding rate falls by 2.7%. He’s averaged just 2.6 RPG in the 19 games he’s played with all three players.

Minutes are also an issue. Wells has averaged just 23.3 MPG in 19 games with Morant/Bane/Jackson. He’s at 26.2 MPG for the full season. Wells is occasionally cast aside in the closing lineup, particularly when other forwards are playing well.

A week ago against San Antonio, Luke Kennard played the majority of the closing minutes. Wells played just 2 minutes in the 4th quarter. A few games before that, it was Kennard and Brandon Clarke getting the call over Wells and Edey to finish a game against Houston. Santi Aldama is also in the mix for forward minutes, and GG Jackson is back with the team. Memphis has plenty of capable players.

Charlotte is a middling matchup. They’re up to 11th in rebounding rate over the last 10 games, but they’ve also been playing faster in that span. It’s certainly not an overwhelmingly appealing spot on the glass.

Pick: Jaylen Wells Under 3.5 Rebounds (-105)

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[subheader sizedown=”false” text=”James Harden Under 8.5 Assists (-140)” subtext=”Celtics vs Clippers, 10:30 p.m. ET” center=”false” logo1url=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/07/los-angeles-clippers-logo-updated-2023.png” link1=”https://www.actionnetwork.com/nba/odds/los-angeles-clippers” link1follow=”true” logo2url=”” link2=”” link2follow=”true” trailinglogourl=”” trailinglink=”” trailinglinkfollow=”true”][/subheader]

Here’s where the loss of Ivica Zubac is felt. James Harden will be missing his big man tonight, which will limit the easy pick-and-roll buckets. His assist rate falls by 2.8% with Zubac off the floor. Harden averages 6.4 assists per 36 minutes in those situations.

The Clippers started Mo Bamba in their first game without Zubac, but he only played 15 minutes. Ty Lue elected to go small for the majority of the game, relying on Amir Coffey for big minutes. Harden did manage 10 assists, but they came on 11 potential assists. Chicago is also one of the best matchups in the league for assists. This matchup is much tougher.

Boston is allowing the 5th-fewest assists per game. They have held opponents to the 3rd-lowest assisted field goal rate. The Celtics allow the 3rd-fewest assists per game to point guards. Harden is averaging 8.1 assists on 13.1 potential assists. This is a tough spot for him to exceed that season-long average.

Pick: James Harden Under 8.5 Assists (-140)

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[subheader sizedown=”false” text=”Kris Dunn Under 8.5 Points (-120)” subtext=”Celtics vs Clippers, 10:30 p.m. ET” center=”false” logo1url=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/07/los-angeles-clippers-logo-updated-2023.png” link1=”https://www.actionnetwork.com/nba/odds/los-angeles-clippers” link1follow=”true” logo2url=”” link2=”” link2follow=”true” trailinglogourl=”” trailinglink=”” trailinglinkfollow=”true”][/subheader]

This seems like a crazy line for a guy averaging 6 PPG going up against an elite defense. It needs some context, though. Los Angeles will be without Kawhi Leonard and Ivica Zubac tonight. James Harden and Norman Powell are questionable. Kris Dunn himself is also questionable.

The injury news has to break perfectly for this to be a reasonable line for Dunn, and even then, it’s too high. He’s 15th on the team in usage this season at 13.4%. He hasn’t scored 9+ points in nearly a month (Dec. 27 vs. Golden State). Dunn doesn’t get a usage bump with Leonard off the floor, and his usage actually goes down with Zubac sidelined (likely small sample size weirdness, but still, no bump).

Same story with Harden off the floor, no increase in usage for Dunn. The only absence that would give him a boost would be Powell, and even then it’s only a minor increase (+0.6%).

Dunn is averaging 22.6 MPG. That’s dipped to 18.4 MPG in January. The Clippers have plenty of depth, so even if everyone sits, there are other candidates for increased minutes. And if Dunn does see a bump, he could still fall short. He’s played 30+ minutes 4 times this season and averaged 10.0 PPG.

Boston is 9th in defensive rating and 3rd in points allowed per game over the past 10 games. Al Horford and Jrue Holiday are questionable tonight, but the rest of their key pieces should be available.

The Celtics are already double-digit favorites, and that number likely climbs if Harden and/or Powell are out. Dunn needs everyone to sit, but also have the Clippers keep it close so he doesn’t lose minutes to a blowout. It’ll be a tough needle to thread.

Pick: Kris Dunn Under 8.5 Points (-120)

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