For the final game of the NFL Divisional Round — Ravens vs. Bills — I have found massive value on a long-shot prop bet.
I’m fading the Ravens defense in a specific prop market on Sunday night. Baltimore generated four sacks in its Wild Card Round win over the Steelers — I’m not sure that effort can be replicated against Josh Allen.
Let’s get into it.
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Ravens vs. Bills Props
[gameheader haspick=”true” picktext=”Ravens to Record a Sack — NO (+700; 0.5 units)” league=”nfl” awaylogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/bal.png” awayname=”Ravens” awayslug=”baltimore-ravens” homelogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/buf.png” homename=”Bills” homeslug=”buffalo-bills” date=”January 19″ time=”6:30 p.m. EST” network=”CBS” bookname=”DraftKings” bookprimarylogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/477013_DraftKings@1x.png” bookreviewslug=”https://www.actionnetwork.com/online-sports-betting/reviews/draftkings”][/gameheader]
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The Ravens have generated the eighth-lowest pressure rate and blitz at the seventh-lowest rate.
Bills QB Josh Allen has faced the 12th-lowest pressure rate, but, importantly for this bet, he’s very tough to sack. Allen’s 8.5% pressure to sack rate is the lowest in the league.
This season, Allen hasn’t been sacked in seven of the 17 full games he’s played (40% rate).
I’m projecting the Ravens for only 1.3 sacks in this game, and I have Allen not getting sacked closer to 27%, which is a fair price closer to +270.
I think we are getting massive value on the Ravens to not record a sack at +700.
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