I’m back with more player props after an unfortunate 1-2 weekend for the Wild Card round. That said, my weekly weekend piece is still 40-19 (67.8%) on the season.
For the Divisional Round I’m looking to hit on Rashod Bateman for the second straight week.
Lines are tight this time of year, so as of now this is my only player prop for the weekend, but be sure to catch me on Convince Me and the Touchdown Show, as well as dropping back by this piece in case I add any other player props.
Dr. Nick’s NFL Divisional Round Player Prop Picks
- Rashod Bateman Longest Reception Over 20.5 Yards (-114, FanDuel)
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Rashod Bateman‘s median longest reception per game this season 18.5 yards, but that includes two games where he played less than 50% of the snaps either due to injury or blowout.
Removing those two, Bateman’s median is 21 yards, which already clears this prop and that comes despite Zay Flowers playing in all but one of those games (last weekend’s Wild Card Round).
Three of those games also came against Pittsburgh, with whom Bateman matches up with arguably the worst among all NFL teams — which I talked about in last weekend’s piece.
Bateman’s median jumps to 23 when we removed Pittsburgh games, which incidentally happens to be his longest reception when he faced Buffalo back in Week 4.
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Yes, Buffalo plays a high rate of two-high shells, which in theory, should keep teams underneath, but they’ve been going backward against the pass, allowing a full yard per target more and a full yard higher average depth of target in the second half of the season compared to the first.
The target distribution against Buffalo has also changed. In the first half of the year, they allowed a shade over 30% of targets to players lined up out wide.
Now it’s nearly 40%, and with potentially no Zay Flowers (at the time of this writing, he sat out Friday practice and has yet to practice this week), Bateman could see a ton of volume, especially if Baltimore trails.
Bateman gets one of his better schematic matchups facing a defense that uses two-high looks and zone coverages at higher than average rates, while ranking last among the eight defenses playing this weekend in adjusted net yards per attempt (ANY/A) to receivers lined up out wide.
I’d play this up to 21.5 with -120 juice to the over or 22.5 at any plus-money odds.
Pick: Rashod Bateman Longest Reception Over 20.5 Yards (-115)
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