The Ravens and Bills close the NFL Divisional Round with a trip to the AFC Championship Game on the line. Kickoff from Highmark Stadium in Orchard Park, N.Y., is set for 6:30 p.m. ET on CBS, and the game can be streamed on Paramount+.
These teams met earlier this season — the Ravens won in a blowout in Baltimore. The two best quarterbacks in the NFL — Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson — face off in what should be a memorable playoff matchup.
Let’s get into our NFL predictions for Ravens vs. Bills.
Ravens vs. Bills Predictions, Props — Divisional Round
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Ravens vs. Bills Spread Prediction
[gameheader haspick=”true” picktext=”Ravens -1 (-110); bet to -1.5″ league=”nfl” awaylogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/bal.png” awayname=”Baltimore Ravens” awayslug=”baltimore-ravens” homelogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/buf.png” homename=”Buffalo Bills” homeslug=”buffalo-bills” date=”Sunday, Jan. 19″ time=”6:30 p.m. ET” network=”CBS” bookname=”Caesars” bookprimarylogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/256064_caesars_800x200.png” bookreviewslug=”caesars-sportsbook”][/gameheader]
By John LanFranca
The perceptions of the Ravens defense over the first half of the regular season were justified. They struggled to defend competent passing attacks, and it seemed to be the achilles heel of a potential Super Bowl type roster.
However, there is no doubt things have changed on the defensive side of the ball for Baltimore. With Kyle Hamilton fully healthy leading this unit, it has become one of the most versatile defenses in the NFL. From Weeks 13 until the end of the regular season in Week 18, the Ravens boasted the best defense in football in scoring defense, red-zone efficiency, third-down conversion rate, total defense (yards) and opponent passer rating.
While the Ravens defense has peaked heading into the playoffs, the same cannot be said for the Bills. Since Week 11, the Ravens pass defense has been elite, ranking number one in the NFL in yards per attempt allowed. Buffalo was 28th ahead of just the Bears, Panthers, Jaguars and Giants.
[relatedarticle articleimageurl=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2025/01/GameGuide-Ravens-Bills.png” linktext=”Stuckey’s Ravens-Bills Pick” link=”https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/baltimore-ravens-vs-buffalo-bills-prediction-pick-odds-nfl-divisional-round-january-19″][/relatedarticle]
One reason the Bills struggle to defend the pass is their inability to take away their opponent’s first read in the quarterbacks’ passing progression. Over that same aforementioned span since week 11, Buffalo has ranked 26th in percentage in which it forced passers to look past their first read. The Ravens ranked first in this category, as well.
The Ravens went extremely zone-heavy on defense against the Bills in their blowout win back in Week 4. The only other team that played zone at that high of rate, near 70%, against Josh Allen, was the Colts in week 10. Allen failed to throw a touchdown in both games.
The Ravens are battled tested, playing 11 playoff teams this season, going 8-3 against the best competition the NFL has to offer. Buffalo went 3-3 against playoffs teams during the regular season. The Ravens will advance to the AFC Championship on Sunday night and cover the spread in the process. I’d play them up to -2.
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Ravens vs. Bills Over/Under Pick
[gameheader haspick=”true” picktext=”Under 51.5″ league=”nfl” awaylogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/bal.png” awayname=”Baltimore Ravens” awayslug=”baltimore-ravens” homelogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/buf.png” homename=”Buffalo Bills” homeslug=”buffalo-bills” date=”Sunday, Jan. 19″ time=”6:30 p.m. ET” network=”CBS” bookname=”DraftKings” bookprimarylogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/477013_DraftKings@1x.png” bookreviewslug=”draftkings”][/gameheader]
By Nick Giffen
According to our NFL Luck Rankings model, this heavyweight battle between Baltimore and Buffalo shows that these two teams have combined to play in games that come in well above those games’ Expected Scores.
The crazier part? It seems the market has properly adjusted, as the total currently sits at 51.5, which is almost exactly where my midweek numbers have this game before adjusting for any potential injuries or other personnel scenarios (my number is between 51 and 51.5).
Given what we saw with the Luck Under last week, when Broncos vs. Bills took some late steam to push all the way up to 49.5 at some shops at close, I’m in no hurry to bet this one as I show no early edge and expect this total to move up closer to kick.
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Ravens vs. Bills Player Props
[gameheader haspick=”true” picktext=”Mark Andrews Under 3.5 Receptions (-115)” league=”nfl” awaylogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/bal.png” awayname=”Baltimore Ravens” awayslug=”baltimore-ravens” homelogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/buf.png” homename=”Buffalo Bills” homeslug=”buffalo-bills” date=”Sunday, Jan. 19″ time=”6:30 p.m. ET” network=”CBS” bookname=”DraftKings” bookprimarylogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/477013_DraftKings@1x.png” bookreviewslug=”draftkings”][/gameheader]
By Grant Neiffer
Zay Flowers being unlikely to play will likely give an increase to Mark Andrews‘ volume, but this line is still too high.
The Ravens’ game plan is to attack on the ground early and often, so Andrews just likely isn’t going to get the volume. The Bills are overall a good pass defense, but they have been horrible this season against WRs. They rank near the bottom of the league in DVOA vs. both WR1s and WR2s but are in the top 10 vs. TEs.
I have Andrews hitting the under at this number at a 60% clip, making this a good bet.
[gameheader haspick=”true” picktext=”Josh Allen Over 45.5 Rushing Yards (-110)” league=”nfl” awaylogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/bal.png” awayname=”Baltimore Ravens” awayslug=”baltimore-ravens” homelogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/buf.png” homename=”Buffalo Bills” homeslug=”buffalo-bills” date=”Sunday, Jan. 19″ time=”6:30 p.m. ET” network=”CBS” bookname=”bet365″ bookprimarylogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/859377_Bet365@1x.png” bookreviewslug=”bet365″][/gameheader]
By Brit Devine
We this Josh Allen prop at a laughable 34.5 last week and won it for two units. This week, it’s been adjusted upward a bit, but I am still very comfortable betting it again (but just for one unit).
Allen has gone for 46 or more rushing yards in eight of his 11 career playoff games and is the type of player that will lay his body on the line for extra yards come playoff time. I would play this to only 45.5.
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Ravens vs. Bills Anytime Touchdown Props
[gameheader haspick=”true” picktext=”Lamar Jackson Anytime TD Scorer (+200)” league=”nfl” awaylogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/bal.png” awayname=”Baltimore Ravens” awayslug=”baltimore-ravens” homelogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/buf.png” homename=”Buffalo Bills” homeslug=”buffalo-bills” date=”Sunday, Jan. 19″ time=”6:30 p.m. ET” network=”CBS” bookname=”bookname=”bet365″ bookprimarylogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/859377_Bet365@1x.png” bookreviewslug=”bet365″][/gameheader]
By Grant Neiffer
This is going to be one of the best games of the season, and Lamar Jackson is likely going to be forced to do a decent amount of work with his legs.
Last week, Jackson had a massive 15 rushing attempts, which showed the Ravens are likely going to let him run wild in the playoffs. The total in this game is massive (51.5), and we can expect a tight but high-scoring game with a 1.5-point spread.
I expect the Ravens to have a lot of designed runs ready for Jackson, and I have the true odds of him scoring at around +180, making this a good bet.
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