We have a total of three NBA player props for this Monday, and our staff of basketball betting experts is focused on some key players who could be in line for noteworthy performances in tonight’s contests.
Read below for our NBA player prop picks for Monday, January 13.
NBA Player Props for Monday, January 13
- Jaylen Wells
- Kyle Kuzma
- Kawhi Leonard
[subheader sizedown=”false” text=”Jaylen Wells Under 3.5 Rebounds (+105)” subtext=”Grizzlies vs Rockets, 8:00 p.m. ET” center=”false” logo1url=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nba/100/mem.png” link1=”https://www.actionnetwork.com/nba/odds/memphis-grizzlies” link1follow=”true” logo2url=”” link2=”” link2follow=”true” trailinglogourl=”” trailinglink=”” trailinglinkfollow=”true”][/subheader]
Jaylen Wells is averaging 3.8 rebounds on 6.7 rebound chances on the season. This line might seem about right considering those season-long numbers, but there are multiple factors working against Wells here.
Memphis is mostly healthy at the moment, which means all of their best rebounders are available. Zach Edey, Desmond Bane, and Jaren Jackson Jr. are top-4 on the team in rebounds and top-5 in rebound chances per game.
Wells has been a fixture in the Grizzlies’ starting lineup as of late, along with Ja Morant and parts of the aforementioned trio. However, when Wells is on the floor with Edey/Bane/Jackson, his rebounding rate falls by 2.4%. He’s averaged just 2.9 RPG in the 15 games he’s played with all three players.
Wells’ minutes are also less guaranteed with everyone healthy. In the 16 games he’s played with Morant/Bane/Jackson, Wells has averaged just 22.7 MPG. He’s at 26.1 MPG for the full season.
Memphis is going to close with their big 3 and a center (Edey, Brandon Clarke), which leaves just one spot for a forward.
Wells got the nod on Saturday against Minnesota, playing the final 6 minutes. While Luke Kennard closed on Thursday against this Houston squad, playing the final 9 minutes, and Wells didn’t get to play in the 4th quarter.
And then there’s the matchup. Houston leads the league in rebounding rate. They’re 8th in rebounds allowed per game, and they’re up to 5th over the last 10 games. The Rockets have allowed the 6th-fewest rebounds per game to small forwards.
Pick: Jaylen Wells Under 3.5 Rebounds (+105)
[subheader sizedown=”false” text=”Kyle Kuzma Under 15.5 Points (-115)” subtext=”Timberwolves vs Wizards, 7:00 p.m. ET” center=”false” logo1url=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nba/100/wsh.png” link1=”https://www.actionnetwork.com/nba/odds/washington-wizards” link1follow=”true” logo2url=”” link2=”” link2follow=”true” trailinglogourl=”” trailinglink=”” trailinglinkfollow=”true”][/subheader]
Kyle Kuzma hasn’t been playing great basketball recently hitting the Under at this number in five of the last seven games.
He’ll likely only play mid to high 20 minutes in this spot and the matchup is a tough one.
The Wolves are a big pace-down matchup and are one of the better defensive teams in the league.
With a 13.5 point spread, this game could turn into a massive blowout, which would only decrease Kuzma’s minutes further.
I have Kuzma at close to a 60% chance of hitting the Under at this number, making this a great EV bet tonight.
Pick: Kyle Kuzma Under 15.5 Points (-115)
[subheader sizedown=”false” text=”Kawhi Leonard Under 21.5 Points, Rebounds, & Assists (-125)” subtext=”Heat vs Clippers, 10:30 p.m. ET” center=”false” logo1url=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/07/los-angeles-clippers-logo-updated-2023.png” link1=”https://www.actionnetwork.com/nba/odds/los-angeles-clippers” link1follow=”true” logo2url=”” link2=”” link2follow=”true” trailinglogourl=”” trailinglink=”” trailinglinkfollow=”true”][/subheader]
Kawhi Leonard hasn’t exceeded 20 minutes in his first two games back since returning from injury. He’s now had a week off after missing a game and the Clippers getting another one postponed.
He’ll ramp up at some point, but I’m expecting him to stay around 18-20 minutes again here.
Leonard’s usage (26.8%) has been in line with what we’ve seen in his past couple seasons with LA, but he’s failed to make much of an impact. He’s shot just 31.8% from the field and averaged 8 rebounds + assists.
Leonard is averaging 10.5 passes and 5.5 rebound chances, so he hasn’t seemed overly eager to contribute in those areas. It’s only been two games of course, but Leonard has been content to focus on scoring.
Miami is a challenging matchup. They rank 10th on the season in defensive rating, and they’re up to 5th over the last 10 games.
The Heat’s defensive rating improves by 5.9 with Jimmy Butler off the floor, so it’s not surprising to see them pick it up on that end during his suspension.
Scoring 18+ points is probably Leonard’s best chance to exceed this line, and that will be difficult in limited minutes against Miami’s defense.
Pick: Kawhi Leonard Under 21.5 Points, Rebounds, & Assists (-125)
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