Three of the top four edges from the Action PRO touchdown tool kick off Saturday in the NFL Wild Card Round between the Steelers and Ravens.
The last time these two teams met, our touchdown predictor cashed a big one with Cordarrelle Patterson (+1500).
For Saturday’s NFL playoff picks, expert projections spotted three touchdown scorers worth betting in the AFC North clash, including anytime TD picks from both teams.
Transitioning from insights to action, we’ll cover three data-fueled predictions for Steelers vs. Ravens spotlighted to score at any point Saturday.
NFL Picks, Odds for 1/11: Touchdown Predictions for Steelers vs. Ravens
The biggest edge of the week to score a touchdown is also the best payout of the bunch Saturday.
Steelers quarterback Russell Wilson is +1100 at a couple of shops to score against Baltimore. Those odds imply about an 8% chance. Stacking up our projections to the market, Action PRO models predict Wilson for about 0.14 touchdowns.
Our fair price for Wilson to score is more like +615. If we use our recommended threshold of at least a 3.5% edge over the market, then grabbing Wilson at anything about +850 or better would be smart by projections standards.
Again, 11/1 takes the cake as a solid bet for those with flexibility to shop for the best price.
PRO TD Projections Pick: Russell Wilson TD (+1100)
The second-best pick of the entire Wild Card Round to score a TD is Ravens RB Justice Hill.
Baltimore’s skill corps is generally priced properly (or overpriced). However, there’s some reasoning to scoop up Hill in the anytime touchdown market.
His price tag of +550 implies about a 15% chance. PRO Projections tab Hill for 0.22 touchdowns on average, translating to a 4.6% edge.
PRO TD Projections Pick: Justice Hill TD (+550)
The fourth-best touchdown prediction from PRO models this weekend is Steelers TE Pat Freiermuth.
Freiermuth was a pick to click last weekend vs. the Bengals, which cashed.
His odds for a touchdown at Bet365 are +333, a price tag giving the Steelers pass catcher about a 23% chance.
The touchdown tool models Freiermuth for a 0.32 touchdowns per game vs. the Ravens, producing a solid 3.9% edge over the market.
PRO TD Projections Pick: Pat Freiermuth TD (+333)
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