The regular season was a mixed bag for the NFL Luck Rankings.
- Unlucky teams in Luck Matchups that met one of our three criteria were 16-18-1 (47.1%) against the spread (ATS)
- Luck Unders were 15-11-0 (57.7%) to the under
- Luck Overs were 6-1-0 (85.7%) to the over
Overall, a bet on any luck-based side or total ended with a 37-30-1 (55.1%) record. Betting to win $100 each at -110 odds equates to $400 profit, and an ROI of 5.3% over 68 total bets.
That’s not as good as last year’s 20.5% ROI, but it does mark another profitable regular season for the Luck Rankings against NFL closing sides and totals. Much of this year’s dip in performance can be attributed to a historic year for favorites, which gave the sides portion of the Luck Rankings their sub-.500 season ever.
Thankfully, the Luck Rankings have also been effective in betting totals in the playoffs. Of course, you must always consider other factors than just the Luck Rankings, but they’re a great place to start when handicapping playoff totals.
Luck Rankings Playoff Trends
Luck Totals
The main playoff trend to worry about in the postseason is around Luck Totals.
Over the last six years (74 games), there has been a statistically significant correlation between the magnitude of the Luck Total and the probability of the game going over or under its closing total.
In the image above, as an example, you see that based on those 74 games, the crosshairs show that a game with a Luck Total of -1 has historically had a 55% chance of staying under the closing total. We can slide the reference lines to the left or right along the blue line. Sliding to the right means a higher probability of going over the closing total, which corresponds with a positive Luck Total. Sliding to the left correlates with a higher probability of staying under the closing totals.
Using that data, we can break down Luck Totals into the following bins over the last six years.
- Luck Totals of +1.25 or higher are 11-5 (68.8%) to the over
- Luck Totals of -1.25 or lower are 23-8 (74.2%) to the under
- Luck Totals between -1.25 and +1.25 are 14-12-1 to the over (53.7%)
So, if the Luck Total has an absolute value greater than 1.25, games are 34-13 (72.3%) directionally either to the over or under, depending on whether the Luck Total is positive or negative.
These are technically predictive results since the Luck Totals stem from regular-season data (and any subsequent rounds of the playoffs) that are then used to “predict” whether the game will go over or under the closing total.
Wild Card Weekend Luck Rankings Games
For this year’s Wild Card Weekend, two of the six games have a Luck Total that’s well beyond the +/- 1.25 threshold.
Broncos vs. Bills
Luck Total: -5.3
Sunday’s 2/7 matchup features a Luck Total that extends well below the -1.25 threshold, with a Luck Total of -5.3. That means, on average, these teams tended to score and allow a combined 5.7 points per game above expected, so we should expect some regression at some point to lower numbers.
As of Wednesday afternoon, this game sits at 47.5 at FanDuel, and 47 at most other shops. Given 47 is the most key number between 44 and 51, we should definitely try to get the best number possible here.
Using recency-weighted, schedule-adjusted Expected Scores, I make this game right at 47 myself. With both the bets and the money coming in on the over, I don’t mind waiting this one out for a better price on 47.5. The consensus total has switched between 47 and 47.5 nine times so far this week, so there could be another push upward.
Verdict: Wait
Vikings vs. Rams
Luck Total: +4.7
For the Monday night game we have two high-powered offenses squaring off that were both unlucky to not score more during the regular season according to our Expected Scores. In addition, both of these offenses have actually been better as of late, with both improving their offensive DVOA rank in the recency-weighted version than the unweighted version.
This especially makes sense for Los Angeles, as they went a large chunk of the season with a depleted offensive line that’s now getting healthy, plus Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp each missed time earlier in the season.
Defensively, the Rams have improved as their defensive unit health has also improved, but Minnesota has actually gotten sligthly worse when we weigh more recent results.
I make this game 48 or even 48.5 depending on how I handle the recency weighting. I bet this over 46.5 at a slightly juiced -115 at DraftKings on Tuesday, but I’d still play 47.5 at -110.
Verdict: Bet Over 47.5 to -110
_InlineAdBlock