We have a total of 4 NBA player props for New Year’s Eve, and our staff of basketball betting experts is focused on some key players who could be in line for noteworthy performances to close 2024.
Read below for our NBA player prop picks for Tuesday, December 31.
NBA Player Props for Tuesday, Dec. 31
- Anthony Edwards
- Jakob Poeltl
- Victor Wembanyama
- Evan Mobley
[subheader sizedown=”false” text=”Anthony Edwards Under 23.5 Points (-111)” subtext=”Timberwolves vs. Thunder, 8 p.m. ET” center=”false” logo1url=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/nba-updated-logo-minnesota-timberwolves.png” link1=”https://www.actionnetwork.com/nba/odds/minnesota-timberwolves” link1follow=”true” logo2url=”” link2=”” link2follow=”true” trailinglogourl=”” trailinglink=”” trailinglinkfollow=”true”][/subheader]
Anthony Edwards has adjusted his game this season to account for less spacing. The swap of Karl-Anthony Towns for Julius Randle subtracted a floor spacer, which means Edwards had to expand his range. He’s taking 9.8 3-pointers per game, easily a career-high.
Edwards is scoring nearly half of his points (48.6%) from 3-point range. That mark is up nearly 20% from last season, when he averaged a career-high 25.9 PPG.
The emphasis on 3-point shooting has meant fewer points in the paint and fewer free throw attempts. Edwards isn’t attacking the rim like he did in 2023-24, when he averaged 9.2 shots per game in the paint. His paint attempts are down by 2.0 per game this season. Edwards is averaging a career-low 3.8 free throws per game.
OKC is the best defense in the league. They’re 1st in defensive rating by a mile. They lead the league in points per game allowed. The Thunder have held opponents to the 5th-fewest made 3-pointers and the lowest 3-point percentage.
The one place they’re vulnerable? The free throw line. OKC’s aggressive defense leads to fouls (6th-most), which obviously leads to free throws (5th-most). The Thunder have allowed the 2nd-highest opponent percentage of points from free throws.
You have to get to the line to score effectively against this defense, and Edwards hasn’t been doing that this season. Maybe he chucks 25+ shots and gets there. It’s going to take that type of volume.
Pick: Anthony Edwards Under 23.5 Points
[subheader sizedown=”false” text=”Jakob Poeltl Under 12.5 Rebounds & Assists (-120)” subtext=”Raptors vs. Celtics, 3 p.m. ET” center=”false” logo1url=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nba/100/tor.png” link1=”https://www.actionnetwork.com/nba/odds/toronto-raptors” link1follow=”true” logo2url=”” link2=”” link2follow=”true” trailinglogourl=”” trailinglink=”” trailinglinkfollow=”true”][/subheader]
This is a pretty tough spot for Jakob Poeltl against one of the best teams in the league.
Additionally, with Scottie Barnes back in the fold and playing well, it’s really impacted his upside.
I fully understand that he could easily pop in any game, but I just don’t think that day is today.
Pick: Jakob Poeltl Under 12.5 Rebounds & Assists
[subheader sizedown=”false” text=”Victor Wembanyama Under 11.5 Rebounds (-110)” subtext=”Clippers vs. Spurs, 7 p.m. ET” center=”false” logo1url=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nba/100/sas.png” link1=”https://www.actionnetwork.com/nba/odds/san-antonio-spurs” link1follow=”true” logo2url=”” link2=”” link2follow=”true” trailinglogourl=”” trailinglink=”” trailinglinkfollow=”true”][/subheader]
By Kyle Murray
It is never fun taking the under on an elite player like Wemby, but I do think this line is a bit too aggressive.
Wemby only has 12+ rebounds in 9 of his 27 games this season, and this is also a difficult matchup against the Clippers, who have allowed the 4th-fewest rebound chances per game.
Pick: Victor Wembanyama Under 11.5 Rebounds (-110)
[subheader sizedown=”false” text=”Evan Mobley Over 16.5 Points (-115)” subtext=”Cavaliers vs. Lakers, 9 p.m. ET” center=”false” logo1url=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/nba-updated-logo-cleveland-cavaliers.png” link1=”https://www.actionnetwork.com/nba/odds/cleveland-cavaliers” link1follow=”true” logo2url=”” link2=”” link2follow=”true” trailinglogourl=”” trailinglink=”” trailinglinkfollow=”true”][/subheader]
This line is a few points too low for Mobley here. He’s been getting great usage this season with 18.4 points per game in just 30.2 minutes.
With a 5-point spread, I’d expect low to mid 30s minutes in this game and last time these two teams faced Mobley had a massive 16 shot attempts in just 19 minutes.
Foul trouble is a bit of a concern here, but not nearly enough to justify this low line.
I would hit this line all the way up to 18.5 with normal juice and don’t mind alternate lines all the way up to 25+.
Pick: Evan Mobley Over 16.5 Points
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