The Texas Tech Red Raiders (8-4, 6-3 Big 12) meet the Arkansas Razorbacks (6-6, 3-5 SEC) in the Liberty Bowl on Friday, Dec. 27. Kickoff will take place at 7 p.m. ET on ESPN.
One constant through decades of college football has been the annual Liberty Bowl, first played in 1959. Originally played in Philadelphia for the first four years with a brief stop in Atlantic City during 1964, Memphis has played the role of host city for 6 decades.
Arkansas already held the most all-time appearances, making its 7th trip this season. This will be head coach Sam Pittman’s 2nd appearance in Memphis, previously breaking records for most points scored and total yards in the 2022 55-53 triple-overtime victory over Kansas.
On the other side, head coach Joey McGuire will take Texas Tech to its 2nd Liberty Bowl in 3 years, previously beating Mississippi State, 34-7, in the 2021 game.
Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium will be the site of the 2024 game, where the Red Raiders are listed as a 1.5-point favorite with the over/under at 52.
Let’s take a look at my Texas Tech vs. Arkansas predictions and college football picks for the 2024 Liberty Bowl on Friday, Dec. 27.
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- Texas Tech vs. Arkansas Pick: Texas Tech -2.5
My Arkansas vs. Texas Tech best bet is on the Red Raiders to cover the spread, with the best line currently available at DraftKings, according to our live NCAAF odds page.
Texas Tech vs. Arkansas Odds, Betting Lines, Spread
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- Spread: Texas Tech -3, Arkansas +3
- Over/Under: 53.5 Total Points
- Moneyline: Texas Tech ML -140 · Arkansas ML +120
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Texas Tech Red Raiders Betting Preview
Texas Tech is under construction from a coach and roster perspective, as offensive coordinator Zach Kittley has moved on to become the head coach at Florida Atlantic.
On the other side of the ball, defensive coordinator Tim DeRuyter was fired after the Red Raiders finished near dead last in numerous categories.
The nickel scheme did slip into the top 50 in terms of Line Yards, but a bottom-15 rank in PFF Tackling grade and broken tackles allowed created plenty of opponent explosives.
The good news for the roster is the inclusion of star running back Tahj Brooks on the bowl depth chart.
Tahj Brooks officially listed as the RB1 on Tech’s Liberty Bowl depth chart.
Good sign that he’ll be out there against Arkansas. #TexasTech pic.twitter.com/EH2PisZN5w
— Cole Banker (@colebankertv) December 21, 2024
Texas Tech will be without the services of lead wide receiver Josh Kelly, as his 452 snaps out of the slot generated 123 targets on the season.
The Red Raiders will also be with a new quarterback in Will Hammond, as starter Behren Morton underwent surgery on his throwing shoulder. Hammond was limited to three games of action, posting a touchdown with a 14-of-22 passing clip.
While blindside tackle Dalton Merryman is in the transfer portal, the Red Raiders do have 453 snaps of experience at left tackle through other reserve players.
The entire offense may rest on the rushing attack led by Brooks’ season total of 1,512 yards and 17 touchdowns.
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Arkansas Razorbacks Betting Preview
Arkansas rebounded from a non-bowl season in 2023 to eclipse a preseason win total of 4.5 wins.
The Razorbacks were invigorated by new offensive coordinator Bobby Petrino and transfer quarterback Taylen Green. The former Boise State quarterback threw 13 touchdowns with the most passing yards in his career at 2,805 on the season.
Taylen Green threads the needle to Isaac TeSlaa for a @Dillards Perfect Fit! pic.twitter.com/t5zFm9A1Ax
— Arkansas Razorback Football (@RazorbackFB) November 26, 2024
However, Green may not have been ready for SEC defenses, seeing 157 pressures — more than the cumulative total from three years in the Mountain West Conference.
The transfer portal has ravaged the Razorbacks, who lost nearly every contributor on the offensive line, in the backfield and out wide.
Isaac TeSlaa is the new leading receiver with 25 catches on the season.
Running back Ja’Quinden Jackson opted out for the NFL Draft, leaving Braylen Russell as the lead rusher after two entries into the transfer portal this month.
The defense will be without edge Landon Jackson and interior lineman Eric Gregory. While the secondary has minimal entries to the portal, the Razorbacks finished 119th in contested catch rate and 124th in PFF coverage grading.
Arkansas vs. Texas Tech Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Arkansas vs. Texas Tech match up statistically:
Texas Tech Offense vs. Arkansas Defense
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Offense
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Defense
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Edge
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| Rush Success | 46 | 20 |
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| Line Yards | 49 | 28 |
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| Pass Success | 65 | 105 |
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| Havoc | 46 | 88 |
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| Finishing Drives | 4 | 28 |
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| Quality Drives | 35 | 58 |
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Arkansas Offense vs. Texas Tech Defense
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Offense
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Defense
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Edge
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| Rush Success | 3 | 74 |
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| Line Yards | 25 | 45 |
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| Pass Success | 28 | 104 |
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| Havoc | 112 | 116 |
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| Finishing Drives | 59 | 92 |
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| Quality Drives | 50 | 109 |
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Pace of Play / Other
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| PFF Tackling | 128 | 40 |
| PFF Coverage | 129 | 124 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 27 | 43 |
| Middle 8 | 19 | 71 |
| Seconds per Play | 23.1 (8) | 26.1 (52) |
| Rush Rate | 47% (108) | 53% (76) |
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The only avenue for Arkansas to generate first downs and explosive plays should come on Texas Tech’s pressure on Green. The quarterback has made plenty of mistakes, from 18 turnover-worthy plays in the passing game to 12 fumbles on 115 rushing attempts.
The Razorbacks rank 112th in Havoc Allowed, as poor protection from the offensive line will not improve with reserves covering starters Josh Braun and Patrick Kutas.
Considering the Hogs have lost their top four targets and top two rushers, a methodical offense could be out of scope even with Texas Tech’s poor defensive analytics and interim defensive coordinator.
The biggest edge for the Red Raiders defense could come from a schedule that saw a number of mobile quarterbacks. West Virginia quarterback Garrett Greene had 10 rushing attempts for -11 yards against Texas Tech, while Colorado’s Shedeur Sanders racked up just 16 yards on nine attempts.
On the other side of the ball, Hammond has shown the ability to move outside of the pocket, showing success in a number of designed attempts against TCU in Week 9.
With a high chance of thunderstorms and double-digit winds, the rushing attack may be the most important aspect for both offenses.
Russell averages less than three yards after first contact for the Hogs, totaling 304 yards while creating just seven missed tackles.
Texas Tech has the advantage in the rushing department with Brooks on board, generating a top-40 elusiveness ranking while providing an extra 10 missed tackles forced from 28 receptions out of the backfield.
Pick: Texas Tech -2.5 or Better
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Texas Tech vs. Arkansas Streaming, Location, Start Time, How to Watch, Channel
| Location: | Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium, Memphis, TN |
| Date: | Friday, Dec. 27 |
| Kickoff Time: | 7 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | ESPN |
Texas Tech meets Arkansas in the Liberty Bowl on Friday, Dec. 27 in Memphis at 7 p.m. ET on ESPN.
Texas Tech vs. Arkansas Betting Trends to Know
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Texas Tech vs. Arkansas Weather Forecast
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