Our NFL Luck Rankings can be used to bet on unlucky teams that meet one of three criteria:
- A difference of at least 24 places in our weekly NFL Luck Rankings (Luck Difference).
- A Luck% difference (Luck Gap) of at least 50% between two opposing teams at any point in the season.
- A Luck% difference (Luck Gap) of at least 30% between two opposing teams in Week 13 or later.
Unlucky teams meeting at least one of these three criteria are 128-78-6 (61.8%) against the spread (ATS) in regular-season games other than the last week of the season when using closing lines, which are the hardest to beat.
In Week 15, both unlucky teams meeting the thresholds failed to cover. That moves unlucky teams in those games to 15-17-1 (47%) ATS on the season.
There were two Luck Totals in Week 15 — one Luck Under that went over its closing total, moving Luck Unders to 12-10-0 on the season, and one Luck Over that went over. That moves Luck Overs to 5-0-0 this year. As a whole, Luck Totals are 17-10-0 (63%) this season.
As a reminder, here are the criteria for Luck Totals:
- A Luck Total above +10 after Week 3.
- A Luck Total above +5 after Week 11.
- A Luck Total below -5 after Week 2.
Sides and totals meeting any Luck Ranking criteria are 32-27-1 (54.2%) on the season.
For NFL Week 16, there are no sides, but two luck-based totals. Let’s take a look.
NFL Luck Rankings Week 16 Games
Browns vs. Bengals
Luck Total: -7.5
The big news in this game is the Browns change from Jameis Winston to Dorian Thompson-Robinson at quarterback. That’s brought the total down from a peak of 49.5 to 47, but I think that’s still too high.
Thompson-Robinson has started three games in his NFL career, and played about a quarter of a game last week against Kansas City. In those 3.25 games, the Browns’ best full-game Expected Score was just 18.54 points. He fared a bit better in his quarter against Kansas City, but even then the Expected Score scaled to a full game was just 21.47 points, and that’s being generous given the Chiefs were playing softer with a big lead late.
Yes, the Bengals have been awful on defense this year, but at an Expected Score of 26.1 points allowed per game, then taking a Thompson-Robinson-led offense which is certainly below an average NFL offense, and I can’t get the Browns to above 23.5 points on average, and that’s with my most generous projection for Thompson-Robinson.
Realistically, we should be using a projected Expected Score of about 15.5 points against an average NFL defense with Thompson-Robinson as QB based on his play so far. That would get adjusted up for the Bengals being worse than average, but adjusted slightly back down for the Bengals being at home. I have the Browns team total more realistically at a projection of 17.
I also have the Bengals team total as too high compared to the 27.5, as they come in with the lowest Luck Team Total of Week 16. Cincy has scored 399 points, which is almost 48 above expectation. The Browns, meanwhile, have allowed 356 points compared to 308 expected for a difference of 48 over expected.
Prior to Winston’s insertion at QB in Week 8, the difference was just 17 points in seven games. With Winston starting, the Browns allowed 31 points allowed over expected in the seven games. A big culprit for all that was the Winston pick sixes.
It seems likely the Browns will implement a more run-heavy approach with Thompson-Robinson than they used with Jameis which should hurt scoring on both sides of the ball by running clock, and reducing pick-six opportunity.
I bet the under at 47, and am kicking myself for not betting it Monday night at 49.5 when I saw rumblings that Thompson-Robinson might start. Still, I have this game totaled closer to 45.
I’d advise on some caution though. Our PRO Projections have the over as the number one edge this week on totals at 48.5. However, according to our PRO Report, both the big and sharp money has come in on the under so far and this game also fits a divisional under trend.
Verdict: Bet Under 47 (-110). Under 47.5 (-120) at BetMGM is relatively equivalent and fine too if you don’t mind paying the extra juice for a key number.
Cardinals at Panthers
Luck Total: +5.6
Arizona was involved in a Luck Over last week that ended up going over thanks to some late scoring, so you’d be correct to think that maybe we shouldn’t double dip here. However, that game against the Patriots had a combined Expected Score 54 points, so the game was actually unlucky to not have more points!
Meanwhile, Carolina should have scored 17 against Dallas compared to the 14 they did score by our Expected Scores, so both teams were involved in games that stayed under their expectation.
There’s been a lot of talk about an improved Panthers team, but that’s mostly just true on the offensive side of the ball (which should help the over). Defensively, this team just gave up 30 to the Cooper Rush-led Cowboys with 31.4 expected from Dallas, and has allowed 30 or more expected in four of the last five and eight of the last 10.
Arizona, meanwhile, keeps churning out solid offensive performances in non-divisional games. Since Week 4, they’ve played eight such games, averaging an Expected Score of 24.9 points with a floor of 21.9. Carolina’s porous defense should only enhance those numbers this week.
I have this game projected at a total closer to 48, so I still like over 46.5 even slightly juiced -115 at FanDuel, especially as both 47 and 48 are the two most key numbers between 44 and 51. I took the over 46.5 at -110 on Monday night myself.
It also certainly doesn’t hurt that Luck Overs are 5-0-0 this year to the over, and hit at a 67% rate over a 71-game sample since 2018.
Verdict: Bet Over 46.5 (-115)
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