NFL Luck Rankings Week 16: Expert Ranks Luckiest Teams

Action Network’s NFL Luck Rankings — a betting-focused version of NFL Power Rankings developed by Action Network’s Predictive Analytics team — are out for Week 16.

These rankings are designed to help identify which teams’ results have been luckier — or unluckier — than their on-field performance indicates.

For more on how the Luck Rankings work, check out this detailed concept overview. You can also check out our season primer to understand how to use these rankings to bet on the NFL.

An NFL game must qualify for one of the following three criteria to be considered a “Luck Game.”

1. A difference of at least 24 places in our weekly NFL Luck Rankings.
2. A Luck% difference of at least 50% between two opposing teams at any point in the season.
3. A Luck% difference of at least 30% between two opposing teams in Week 13 or later.

The unlucky team in matchups that fit one of those criteria is 128-78-6 (61.8%) against the spread (ATS) in the regular season other than the last week of the season when using closing lines — the hardest lines to beat.

In Week 15, both unlucky teams meeting the thresholds failed to cover. That moves unlucky team teams in those games to 15-17-1 (47%) ATS on the season.

Barring a major run in Week 17, this would be the first sub-50% season in the last seven years and just the second season to not turn a profit on sides in those seven seasons along with 2019, when unlucky teams went 15-14 (51.7%) ATS.

That just goes to show there’s more to handicapping than a single number, but the Luck Rankings long term still provide plenty of value. With a long-term win rate of 61.8%, we should expect a 50% or worse ATS season in about one out of every eight seasons using the average number of Luck Matchups there are in a given year. Since this is likely the first out of seven, that’s pretty much right on pace.

Thankfully, Luck Totals have fared better this year.

Luck Totals must meet one of three criteria:

1. A Luck Total above +10 after Week 3.
2. A Luck Total above +5 after Week 11.
3. A Luck Total below -5 after Week 2.

As a whole, Luck Totals are 180-115-4 (60.9%), which breaks down into 133-92-3 (59%) for Luck Unders and 47-23-1 (66.9%) for Luck Overs in the regular season other than the last week of the season when using closing lines.

There were two Luck Totals in Week 15 — one Luck Under that went over its closing total, moving Luck Unders to 12-10-0 on the season, and one Luck Over that went over. That moves Luck Overs to 5-0-0 this year. As a whole, Luck Totals are 17-10-0 (63%) this season.

All luck-based bets meeting any side or total criteria are 32-27-1 (54.2%), which is still a profitable year at this point in the season for the Luck Rankings as whole.

Here’s how our NFL Luck Rankings shake out for Week 16.

NFL Week 16 Luck Rankings

Note: Luck % represents the win probability swing between a team’s expected winning percentage from their on-field performance and their actual winning percentage. Lucky teams may regress and could be overvalued by betting markets.

RANK	TEAM	Luck %
1	Chiefs	26.57%
2	Eagles	17.28%
3	Steelers	16.87%
4	Chargers	13.89%
5	Packers	13.63%
6	Vikings	12.61%
7	Bills	11.76%
8	Lions	11.11%
9	Seahawks	10.38%
10	Colts	9.99%
11	Texans	4.27%
12	Cowboys	3.83%
13	Cardinals	3.67%
14	Buccaneers	1.42%
15	Rams	0.25%
16	Ravens	-0.51%
17	Panthers	-0.55%
18	Falcons	-1.06%
19	Broncos	-1.48%
20	Commanders	-2.59%
21	Bears	-5.55%
22	Saints	-7.73%
23	Bengals	-7.78%
24	49ers	-8.48%
25	Dolphins	-11.86%
26	Jets	-12.24%
27	Patriots	-12.87%
28	Jaguars	-13.40%
29	Titans	-13.97%
30	Browns	-18.78%
31	Raiders	-19.04%
32	Giants	-26.93%

The Luckiest Teams

1. Kansas City Chiefs

The Chiefs will be in for a rude awakening when they play good teams.

Against the Browns, the Chiefs allowed a higher yards per play (4.4) than they produced on offense (4.1). Kansas City had a lower in-possession success rate (39.8% to 44%) than Cleveland, and produced just 45 extra yards of offense despite running 15 more plays than the Browns.

If not for six Cleveland turnovers — including four INTs by high-INT rate QBs, three of which came in K.C. territory — and a failed fourth-and-one also inside Chiefs territory, this would have been a close game.

2. Philadelphia Eagles 3. Pittsburgh Steelers

The two Pennsylvania teams flip-flop in the standings after the Eagles triumphed over the Steelers 27-13 in a game our Expected Score had Philly winning by a slightly narrower margin of 26.5 to 17.5.

The Unluckiest Teams

30. Cleveland Browns

Without all the costly turnovers, Cleveland would be closer to a five- or six-win team.

Turnover-worthy QB play can’t be dismissed, but this is at levels even below expectation for a Browns team that is capable of moving the ball.

Costly pick-sixes in opposing territory are more than just seven-point swings, they are more like 10- to 13-point swings when you factor in the Browns’ chances of scoring on those pick-six drives if they replayed those same spots over and over.

31. Las Vegas Raiders

32. New York Giants