I am betting two overs tonight for my Monday Night Football props for Dec. 16.
Both bets are reception props, one for each game tonight. Let’s get right into it.
Nick Giffen’s Monday Night Football Props
[subheader sizedown=”false” text=”Keenan Allen Over 4.5 Receptions (-125)” subtext=”” center=”false” logo1url=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/chi.png” link1=”https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/odds/chicago-bears” link1follow=”true” logo2url=”” link2=”” link2follow=”true” trailinglogourl=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/779359_BetMGM800x200@1x.png” trailinglink=”https://www.actionnetwork.com/online-sports-betting/reviews/betmgm” trailinglinkfollow=”true”][/subheader]
Since returning from injury in Week 5, Keenan Allen leads the Bears‘ offense in target share against two-high safety sets, against the blitz, and against opposing pressure, which may be good news for Allen tonight, as Chicago draws a Vikings defense ranks top-2 in all three of those metrics
The Vikings rank sixth in defensive DVOA against passes to the left side of the field and second against passes on the right side of the field. However, they only rank 15th against passes over the middle of the field, which also bodes well for Allen, who lines up in the slot over 50% of the time.
Generally speaking, the Vikings defense has allowed the most pass attempts per game so far this season, and they’ve surrendered the second-most completions per game.
Allen reeled in nine receptions on 15 targets the last time the Bears squared off against Minnesota. This is a great spot to back the Bears wideout.
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[subheader sizedown=”false” text=”Tre Tucker Over 2.5 Receptions (+142)” subtext=”” center=”false” logo1url=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/oak.png” link1=”https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/odds/las-vegas-raiders” link1follow=”true” logo2url=”” link2=”” link2follow=”true” trailinglogourl=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/122955_FanDuelSportsBook@1x.jpg” trailinglink=”https://www.actionnetwork.com/online-sports-betting/reviews/fanduel” trailinglinkfollow=”true”][/subheader]
The Falcons play a high rate of Cover 6 defense, which is intended to blanket the opposition’s top wide receiver when they’re lined up on the weak side of the formation. That should funnel more targets to Brock Bowers and Tre Tucker and lead the Raiders offense away from Jakobi Meyers.
Also, that’s a great formation for Tucker to face. He has the second-most targets on the Raiders against Cover 6 coverage despite running the fourth-fewest routes against it. He has more targets per routes run against Cover 6 than any other coverage.
The Falcons also allow the league’s highest completion percentage. They have a very low pressure rate, which likely means fewer quarterback scrambles. Ridder scrambled 7.2% of the time against pressure and 3% of the time against no pressure.
Ridder targets Tucker at the highest rate of the three quarterbacks he has played with, so I like the receiver’s prospects with Ridder under center. This is a good spot to bet his over.
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