Action Network’s Predictive Analytics team crunched the numbers and came up with four NFL predictions for Week 15.
The data-driven picks are from Cowboys vs. Panthers, Browns vs. Chiefs, Colts vs. Broncos and the game of the week in Bills vs. Lions.
NFL Predictions Week 15
Only one of our four bets this week is on a spread or total. The other three are +450 or higher and present excellent value for bettors, according to our expert.
[subheader sizedown=”false” text=”Cowboys vs. Panthers”][/subheader]
[gameheader haspick=”false” league=”nfl” awaylogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/dal.png” awayname=”Dallas Cowboys” awayslug=”dallas-cowboys” homelogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/car.png” homename=”Carolina Panthers” homeslug=”carolina-panthers” date=”Sunday, Dec. 15″ time=”1 p.m. ET” network=””][/gameheader]
[subheader text=”Over 42.5 (-120)” subtext=”” logo1url=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/dal.png” trailinglogourl=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/122955_FanDuelSportsBook@1x.jpg” trailinglink=”https://www.actionnetwork.com/online-sports-betting/reviews/fanduel” trailinglinkfollow=”false”][/subheader]
By Billy Ward
I was surprised to see the total in this one fall throughout the week after opening up at 44.
Both teams have awful run defenses, which should allow the offenses to move the ball effectively throughout the game. The spread is also close enough with the Panthers being favored that Carolina should be able to avoid taking the Cowboys‘ solid passing attack head-on, as well.
More importantly, both quarterbacks have performed admirably in recent weeks. Cooper Rush has led the Cowboys to score at least 20 points in their last three games, all of which came against tougher defenses (by DVOA) than the Panthers.
Bryce Young has similarly performed well since stepping back into the starting job. He’s led the Panthers to at least 20 points in four of their last six games, with only the Eagles and Broncos holding them under. Those are top-five defenses, so it’s easy to look past those.
FanDuel is the first sportsbook to drop this total below 43, but don’t rush to put this one in. More might follow, and they may potentially offer better juice.
Pick: Over 42.5 (-120)
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[subheader sizedown=”false” text=”Browns vs. Chiefs”][/subheader]
[gameheader haspick=”false” league=”nfl” awaylogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/cle.png” awayname=”Cleveland Browns” awayslug=”cleveland-browns” homelogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/kc.png” homename=”Kansas City Chiefs” homeslug=”kansas-city-chiefs” date=”Sunday, Dec. 15″ time=”1 p.m. ET” network=””][/gameheader]
[subheader text=”Browns To Record 5+ Sacks (+500)” subtext=”” logo1url=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/cle.png” trailinglogourl=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/477013_DraftKings@1x.png” trailinglink=”https://www.actionnetwork.com/online-sports-betting/reviews/draftkings” trailinglinkfollow=”false”][/subheader]
By Billy Ward
The Chiefs offensive line has been a mess in recent weeks. Opposing teams have sacked Patrick Mahomes twice in the past three weeks. Kansas City has shuffled players in and out across the offensive line, including mid-game moves at tackle.
It’s not looking any better this week, with nominal starting left tackle D.J. Humphries ruled out. That’s a big problem against the Browns, whose pass rush is anchored by star edge rusher Myles Garrett.
The teams that were able to clear this mark against Mahomes were the Raiders and the Panthers, who rank 21st and 29th in adjusted sack rate. The Browns rank eighth.
Ultimately, it will come down to whether the Browns offense can force Mahomes and the Chiefs to throw enough to give them a chance to get there. I’m not confident they can, but I’ll easily take +500.
Pick: Browns To Record 5+ Sacks (+500)
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[subheader sizedown=”false” text=”Colts vs. Broncos”][/subheader]
[gameheader haspick=”false” league=”nfl” awaylogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/ind.png” awayname=”Indianapolis Colts” awayslug=”indianapolis-colts” homelogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/den.png” homename=”Denver Broncos” homeslug=”denver-broncos” date=”Sunday, Dec. 15″ time=”4:25 p.m. ET” network=””][/gameheader]
[subheader text=”SGP: Anthony Richardson Over 45.5 Rushing Yards & Under 9.5 Rush Attempts (+450)” subtext=”” logo1url=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/ind.png” trailinglogourl=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/477013_DraftKings@1x.png” trailinglink=”https://www.actionnetwork.com/online-sports-betting/reviews/draftkings” trailinglinkfollow=”false”][/subheader]
By Billy Ward
This is a bit of a weird one with an obvious negative correlation between Anthony Richardson’s yardage going over and attempts going under.
However, Richardson has the big play ability to get there. He’s averaging 5.5 yards per rush this season, which would hit this parlay on exactly nine rushes. When we remove kneel-downs, his yards per rush jumps to 5.9, which gives us a bit more wiggle room.
That’s relevant because the Colts are 4.5-point underdogs and unlikely to find themselves in victory formation at the end of the game. Additionally, the Broncos play man coverage at a top-five rate, which should boost Richardson’s per-carry production. ‘
This is another bet where the biggest value comes from the varied odds between books. At Caesars (the only other book that allows this parlay), it’s priced at +270. I wouldn’t take that, but I’d make the true odds of it happening inside of +400, giving us a nice edge here. Shop around to see where you can get this bet.
Pick: SGP: Anthony Richardson Over 45.5 Rushing Yards & Under 9.5 Rush Attempts (+450)
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[subheader sizedown=”false” text=”Bills vs. Lions”][/subheader]
[gameheader haspick=”false” league=”nfl” awaylogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/buf.png” awayname=”Buffalo Bills” awayslug=”buffalo-bills” homelogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/det.png” homename=”Detroit Lions” homeslug=”detroit-lions” date=”Sunday, Dec. 15″ time=”4:25 p.m. ET” network=””][/gameheader]
[subheader text=”Highest Scoring Team of the Week (+800)” subtext=”” logo1url=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/det.png” trailinglogourl=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/122955_FanDuelSportsBook@1x.jpg” trailinglink=”https://www.actionnetwork.com/online-sports-betting/reviews/fanduel” trailinglinkfollow=”false”][/subheader]
By Billy Ward
The Lions–Bills game is the obvious choice for highest-scoring game this week with an over/under that is eight points clear of any other contest. It’s priced appropriately to be the highest-scoring game at around +250 at most major sportsbooks.
However, there’s a bit of an edge in the highest-scoring team market. BetMGM, DraftKings and Caesars all have the Lions, who are favored in this game, between +500 and +600 odds.
That’s about right by my estimation, given the odds of both the Lions losing the game and another team (Baltimore?) outscoring them in a blowout.
However, FanDuel is well off the market at +800. I typically want to target teams in games that should play close anyway — since the Ravens are likely to let off the gas at some point — so if you expect the Lions to win the game, this bet makes sense.
FanDuel is similarly off from the rest of the market on the Bills at +1100 with other books lining them between +800 and +900. If you’re somewhat confident in the Bills winning the game, this bet also makes sense for them. Of course, you could bet both and hope the winner outscores the Ravens, who are 16-point favorites over the Giants.
Pick: Highest Scoring Team of the Week (+800)
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