Action Network’s NFL Luck Rankings — a betting-focused version of NFL Power Rankings developed by Action Network’s Predictive Analytics team — are out for Week 15.
These rankings are designed to help identify which teams’ results have been luckier — or unluckier — than their on-field performance indicates.
For more on how the Luck Rankings work, check out this detailed concept overview. You can also check out our season primer to understand how to use these rankings to bet on the NFL.
An NFL game must qualify for one of the following three criteria to be considered a “Luck Game.”
- A difference of at least 24 places in our weekly NFL Luck Rankings.
- A Luck% difference of at least 50% between two opposing teams at any point in the season.
- A Luck% difference of at least 30% between two opposing teams in Week 13 or later.
The unlucky team in matchups that fit one of those criteria is 128-76-6 (62.4%) against the spread (ATS) in the regular season other than the last week of the season when using closing lines — the hardest lines to beat.
In Week 14, the Cleveland Browns failed to cover in the lone Luck Matchup of the week that met our thresholds. That moves unlucky team teams in those games to 15-15-1 (50%) ATS on the season.
Luck Totals must meet one of three criteria:
- A Luck Total above +10 after Week 3.
- A Luck Total above +5 after Week 11.
- A Luck Total below -5 after Week 2.
There were two Luck Totals in Week 14, both Luck Unders that stayed under, moving Luck Unders to 12-9-0 on the season while Luck Overs remain 4-0-0. Luck Totals are 16-9-0 (64%) this season.
All luck-based bets meeting any side or total criteria are 31-24-1 (56.3%).
Here’s how our NFL Luck Rankings shake out for Week 15.
NFL Week 15 Luck Rankings
Note: Luck % represents the win probability swing between a team’s expected winning percentage from their on-field performance and their actual winning percentage. Lucky teams may regress and could be overvalued by betting markets.
| RANK | TEAM | Luck % |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |
24.83%
|
|
| 2 |
20.22%
|
|
| 3 |
16.72%
|
|
| 4 |
15.74%
|
|
| 5 |
13.34%
|
|
| 6 |
13.29%
|
|
| 7 |
12.73%
|
|
| 8 |
12.46%
|
|
| 9 |
11.72%
|
|
| 10 |
11.57%
|
|
| 11 |
3.58%
|
|
| 12 |
0.37%
|
|
| 13 |
0.31%
|
|
| 14 |
0.27%
|
|
| 15 |
0.18%
|
|
| 16 |
-0.22%
|
|
| 17 |
-0.93%
|
|
| 18 |
-2.31%
|
|
| 19 |
-3.17%
|
|
| 20 |
-4.29%
|
|
| 21 |
-5.34%
|
|
| 22 |
-6.93%
|
|
| 23 |
-7.59%
|
|
| 24 |
-7.68%
|
|
| 25 |
-8.25%
|
|
| 26 |
-9.57%
|
|
| 27 |
-10.71%
|
|
| 28 |
-12.50%
|
|
| 29 |
-16.22%
|
|
| 30 |
-18.73%
|
|
| 31 |
-20.11%
|
|
| 32 |
-30.45%
|
The Luckiest Teams
1. Kansas City Chiefs
2. Pittsburgh Steelers
The top two remain the same. Both the Chiefs and Steelers came away with wins in Week 14, although Pittsburgh closed the gap on Kansas City a bit as its win was deemed luckier by our Expected Score metric.
3. Philadelphia Eagles
The Eagles join the top three after the Chargers‘ loss to the Chiefs, while the Eagles picked up a close win over Carolina that was even closer than the six-point margin per Expected Score.
The Unluckiest Teams
30. Las Vegas Raiders
31. New York Jets
32. New York Giants
The bottom three remain the same after another trio of losses.
The Giants‘ loss was an Expected Score win, the Raiders‘ 15-point loss was closer to a touchdown differential by Expected Score, and the Jets lost to the Dolphins in overtime.
It’s particularly noteworthy that the Giants have the unluckiest record heading into Week 15 of any team since the 2019 Chargers, who were 5-8 heading into Week 15 but played more like a 9-4 team to that point. In this case, the Giants have played more like a five- or six-win team rather than the two wins they have.
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