We’re back with our usual, Sunday touchdown pick article using strictly PRO NFL data.
Seven picks make the cut in Week 15. All are +270 or higher, headlined by +1300 and +1600 picks. Also across the seven predictions are two same-game parlay opportunities.
Premium selections start in the early window Sunday and run through Sunday Night football.
Check out these seven data-driven anytime touchdown scorer picks for Sunday Week 15, utilizing best odds, NFL player predictions, edge percentages and more.
NFL Week 15 Odds: Touchdown Picks, Expert TD Predictions Sunday
There are plenty of reasons to be optimistic tailing touchdown picks from Action predictive models in Week 15.
First, last week featured a lot of chalk in the scoring department, so any type of balance would help out the low-profile players PRO Projections are high on.
Secondly, Sean Koerner’s powering the touchdown data, so we’re certainly getting top-notch value from one of the most accurate predictors in the game.
NFL Touchdown Prediction No. 1 for Sunday
Let’s start with Cowboys vs. Panthers, in a game projections show value in the touchdown market.
A few weeks ago, Panthers QB Bryce Young helped us cash a +800 ticket. In Week 15, he’s yet again a pick.
Our models predict Young to score with his legs about 23% of the time. FanDuel’s price for Young to score a TD is +600, implying a roughly 15% chance.
Young has two rushing touchdowns in the year despite missing time. He almost had his third last week before getting tackled, just shy of the goal line.
PRO Projections Pick: Bryce Young Touchdown (+600)
NFL Touchdown Prediction No. 2 for Sunday
In the same game, at the same position, we turn to the opposing sideline, where Cooper Rush is a play!
PRO Projections tag Rush a longshot, just like the market, but the price is too good to pass up. The Cowboys quarterback is +1600 at Caesars for an anytime touchdown.
However, Action PRO models still give Rush a 10% chance to score. Our fair price for Rush is about +900, but at +1600? That’s a bet!
Rush nearly had a rushing score on Thanksgiving but fumbled before the goal line, so it’s not entirely out of the equation. Also, PRO Projections showed value on Rush over 1.5 rushing attempts earlier in the week, perhaps foreshadowing some optimism in the touchdown market.
PRO Projections Pick: Cooper Rush Touchdown (+1600)
NFL Touchdown Prediction No. 3 for Sunday
The third touchdown pick and edge is in Commanders vs. Saints, featuring an Action PRO favorite: Saints tight end Juwan Johnson.
Johnson is +550 at FanDuel (15% chance), but our projection is a touchdown 22% of the time.
Johnson scored a touchdown last week and hasn’t had to fend off Taysom Hill for targets. He’s extremely underpriced at the current number.
PRO Projections Pick: Juwan Johnson Touchdown (+550)
NFL Touchdown Prediction No. 4 for Sunday
The second of two SGP options is in the Commanders vs. Saints game, where the other player to watch is Commanders RB Jeremy McNichols.
Koerner raved about McNichols’ Week 15 matchup on the Fantasy Flex DFS podcast. While third-string running back Chris Rodriguez Jr. ate up snaps behind Brian Robinson Jr. in Week 13, it was mainly due to game script and mop-up duty.
Both backup running backs opened +550 at FanDuel this week, but experts and the touchdown tool clearly favor McNichols.
McNichols is only given a 16.7% chance to score – a lot lower than our prediction of 24%
Koerner loves the draw against a poor Saints run defense.
PRO Projections Pick: Jeremy McNichols Touchdown (+500)
NFL Touchdown Prediction No. 5 for Sunday
Moving on to the late-afternoon window, we spotlight Steelers vs. Eagles – and the single, lone touchdown projection I was most curious about heading into Week 15.
Last week, Steelers veteran skill player Cordarrelle Patterson was a big edge all week, even before George Pickens was ruled out.
Patterson was about +950 at FanDuel to score last Sunday vs. the Browns, a price implying about a 9.5% chance for an anytime touchdown. Koerner’s projections were nearly double that, at about 17%.
I personally love tailing projections because our experts aren’t afraid to move on from a player if the forecast is bleak, or dead in the water. However, our data doesn’t suggest a huge drop-off despite Patterson getting blanked in the scoring column yet again.
In regards to Patterson’s anytime touchdown projections, our prediction for a TD from Week 14 to Week 15 only dipped from 17% to 13%.
However, Patterson’s line adjusting from a low of +900 last week to a high of +1400 this week is just too massive a swing.
Taking Patterson to score in Week 15 vs. the Eagles produces a big edge at a 13/1 price tag.
PRO Projections Pick: Cordarrelle Patterson Touchdown (+1300)
NFL Touchdown Prediction No. 6 for Sunday
Broncos WR Marvin Mims is the single-largest edge for Week 15 at the time of writing.
The second-year speedster is +450 at FanDuel, which implies about an 18% chance of a touchdown. Action PRO models outlook for Mims are much more favorable, pegging the Oklahoma Sooners product for a 27% probability.
Mims reeled in a 93-yard touchdown right before the bye. Experts also noted he’s rounding into a more polished receiver, and is perhaps still being viewed partially as a flash in the pan or gimmick.
PRO Projections Pick: Marvin Mims Touchdown (+450)
NFL Touchdown Prediction No. 7 for Sunday
Closing out with Sunday Night Football, Packers TE Tucker Kraft is a bet at +270 (FanDuel).
PRO Projections forecast Kraft to score nearly 40% of the time, producing a fair price of +150.
Kraft is arguably the best catch-and-run tight end in football right now and is being overshadowed by the flurry of young wide receivers the Packers boast.
However, Koerner highlighted Kraft in a big way, mentioning he scored against the Lions last week in what was essentially a much tougher matchup than he’ll see vs. Seattle.
PRO Projections Pick: Tucker Kraft Touchdown (+270)
[appcard imageurl=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/27440_NFLArticleCard.png” cta=”The must-have app for NFL bettors” firstupsell=”The best NFL betting scoreboard” secondupsell=”Free picks from proven pros” thirdupsell=”Live win probabilities for your bets” buttontext=”DOWNLOAD NOW” buttonurl=”https://action.onelink.me/qhpb/c4aa6ad8″][/appcard]