Action Network’s Predictive Analytics team crunched the numbers and came up with seven NFL predictions for Week 14.
The data-driven NFL picks for Week 14 include two touchdown picks, plus a number of long-shot prop bets for Falcons vs. Vikings, Bills vs. Rams and more.
NFL Predictions Week 14
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| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
| [teammatchup link=”#1″ firstfullname=”Jacksonville Jaguars” firstlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/jac.png” secondfullname=”Tennessee Titans” secondlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/ten.png”][/teammatchup] | 1 p.m. | |
| [teammatchup link=”#2″ firstfullname=”Jacksonville Jaguars” firstlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/jac.png” secondfullname=”Tennessee Titans” secondlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/ten.png”][/teammatchup] | 1 p.m. | |
| [teammatchup link=”#3″ firstfullname=”Carolina Panthers” firstlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/car.png” secondfullname=”Philadelphia Eagles” secondlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/phi.png”][/teammatchup] | 1 p.m. | |
| [teammatchup link=”#4″ firstfullname=”Atlanta Falcons” firstlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/atl.png” secondfullname=”Minnesota Vikings” secondlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/min.png”][/teammatchup] | 1 p.m. | |
| [teammatchup link=”#5″ firstfullname=”Chicago Bears” firstlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/chi.png” secondfullname=”San Francisco 49ers” secondlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/sf.png”][/teammatchup] | 4:25 p.m. | |
| [teammatchup link=”#6″ firstfullname=”Buffalo Bills” firstlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/buf.png” secondfullname=”Los Angeles Rams” secondlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/la.png”][/teammatchup] | 4:25 p.m. | |
| [teammatchup link=”#7″ firstfullname=”Buffalo Bills” firstlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/buf.png” secondfullname=”Los Angeles Rams” secondlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/la.png”][/teammatchup] | 4:25 p.m. | |
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Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NFL Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game.
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[subheader sizedown=”false” text=”Will Levis Player Props”][/subheader]
[gameheader haspick=”true” picktext=”Will Levis Over 20.5 Rushing Yards (-120)” league=”nfl” awaylogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/jac.png” awayname=”Jacksonville Jaguars” awayslug=”jacksonville-jaguars” homelogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/ten.png” homename=”Tennessee Titans” homeslug=”tennessee-titans” date=”Sunday, Dec. 8″ time=”1 p.m. ET” network=”CBS” bookname=”BetMGM” bookprimarylogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/779359_BetMGM800x200@1x.png” bookreviewslug=”betmgm”][/gameheader]
By Billy Ward
Quarterback rushing yards, specifically against man-heavy defenses, is quickly becoming my favorite prop after hitting versions of that over the last two weeks.
Week 14’s version is Will Levis, who’s got a solid matchup against the Jaguars.
Jacksonville ranks third in the NFL in man-coverage rate, which as we’ve seen, is favorable to quarterback rushing production.
Levis is averaging 6.5 carries over the last four weeks (since coming back as starter) — good for just over 16 yards per contest. Obviously, that’s a bit under his line this week, but three of those games came against top-six overall defenses.
He’s got a much better spot this week against the Jaguars who’ve allowed 28 QB rushing yards per game, third most in the league.
This is a potential ladder candidate, but I’m sticking with the straight prop.
Pick: Will Levis Over 20.5 Rushing Yards (-120)
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[subheader sizedown=”false” text=”Devin Duvernay Player Props”][/subheader]
[gameheader haspick=”true” picktext=”Devin Duvernay First Touchdown Scorer (+17000)” league=”nfl” awaylogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/jac.png” awayname=”Jacksonville Jaguars” awayslug=”jacksonville-jaguars” homelogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/ten.png” homename=”Tennessee Titans” homeslug=”tennessee-titans” date=”Sunday, Dec. 8″ time=”1 p.m. ET” network=”CBS” bookname=”FanDuel” bookprimarylogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/122955_FanDuelSportsBook@1x.jpg” bookreviewslug=”fanduel”][/gameheader]
By Nick Giffen
Duvernay slotted in after Gabe Davis went down for the year, running a route on 60% of the Jaguars’ dropabacks last week.
But this is much more about his kick- and punt-return ability against the worst special teams unit in the NFL.
The Titans allow the most yards per return on both kickoffs and punts. So if Tennessee kicks off first, there’s a real chance Duvernay scores the first TD of the slate off the opening kickoff.
And if not, Duvernay should be on the field for about 60% of Mac Jones’ dropbacks and can even potentially get a carry, giving him an out to score on the first drive.
If Tennessee starts with the ball, a quick three and out leading to a punt return TD is another avenue to the first scorer of the slate.
Pick: Devin Duvernay First Touchdown Scorer (+17000)
[expertpickswidget league=”nfl” gameid=”227525″ date=”20241208″ week=”” seasontype=””][/expertpickswidget]
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[subheader sizedown=”false” text=”Grant Calcaterra Player Props”][/subheader]
[gameheader haspick=”true” picktext=”Grant Calcaterra Anytime Touchdown (+550)” league=”nfl” awaylogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/car.png” awayname=”Carolina Panthers” awayslug=”carolina-panthers” homelogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/phi.png” homename=”Philadelphia Eagles” homeslug=”philadelphia-eagles” date=”Sunday, Dec. 8″ time=”1 p.m. ET” network=”FOX” bookname=”FanDuel” bookprimarylogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/122955_FanDuelSportsBook@1x.jpg” bookreviewslug=”fanduel”][/gameheader]
By Billy Ward
The Pathers have allowed the most touchdowns to tight ends this season (nine), which works out to .75 per game.
This week, they face the Eagles, who are without starting tight end Dallas Goedert.
That means the tight end work in Philly should fall to Calcaterra. When Goedert was out earlier this season, Calcaterra averaged 3.3 catches and 40 yards per contest.
Not great numbers, but those games all came in more difficult matchups than the one he faces this week.
We’re showing just under a 5% edge on this bet based on the FanDuel line, making it worth playing for a quarter-unit.
Pick: Grant Calcaterra Anytime Touchdown (+550)
[expertpickswidget league=”nfl” gameid=”227522″ date=”20241208″ week=”” seasontype=””][/expertpickswidget]
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[subheader sizedown=”false” text=”Falcons vs. Vikings Overtime Bet”][/subheader]
[gameheader haspick=”true” picktext=”Will There Be Overtime? — Yes (+1600)” league=”nfl” awaylogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/atl.png” awayname=”Atlanta Falcons” awayslug=”atlanta-falcons” homelogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/min.png” homename=”Minnesota Vikings” homeslug=”minnesota-vikings” date=”Sunday, Dec. 8″ time=”1 p.m. ET” network=”FOX” bookname=”FanDuel” bookprimarylogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/122955_FanDuelSportsBook@1x.jpg” bookreviewslug=”fanduel”][/gameheader]
By Nick Giffen
A big boost for overtime in the Falcons-Vikings tilt is the return of Will Reichard as the Vikings’ kicker.
Reichard has yet to miss an extra point in his young career, and he has only missed two field goals, both of which came in the game he got injured.
On the Falcons side, as much as Younghoe Koo has struggled with field goals, he’s still perfect on extra points, which matters far more for OT chances since a missed XP puts games on more oddball point differences than a missed field goal, which doesn’t change the score at all.
I have +1433 as fair value on overtime in this one.
Pick: Will There Be Overtime? — Yes (+1600)
[expertpickswidget league=”nfl” gameid=”227527″ date=”20241208″ week=”” seasontype=””][/expertpickswidget]
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[subheader sizedown=”false” text=”Bears vs. 49ers Overtime Pick”][/subheader]
[gameheader haspick=”true” picktext=”Will There Be Overtime? — Yes (+1500)” league=”nfl” awaylogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/chi.png” awayname=”Chicago Bears” awayslug=”chicago-bears” homelogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/sf.png” homename=”San Francisco 49ers” homeslug=”san-francisco-49ers” date=”Sunday, Dec. 8″ time=”4:25 p.m. ET” network=”FOX” bookname=”FanDuel” bookprimarylogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/122955_FanDuelSportsBook@1x.jpg” bookreviewslug=”fanduel”][/gameheader]
By Nick Giffen
For San Francisco and Chicago, we one of the best kickers in the NFL on extra points in Jake Moody, who has made 97.7% of his career XPs.
On the other side, Cairo Santos may look like a negative because he’s only made 93.4% of his PATs as a Bear, but every single miss has come at home in the Windy City.
That means over five years, Santos has yet to miss an extra point on the road. It’s going to be a perfect day in San Francisco with low winds, so Santos gets a huge boost.
I have +1385 as fair value for the Bears and 49ers, per my OT model.
Pick: Will There Be Overtime? — Yes (+1500)
[expertpickswidget league=”nfl” gameid=”227529″ date=”20241208″ week=”” seasontype=””][/expertpickswidget]
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[subheader sizedown=”false” text=”Bills vs. Rams Long-Shot Prop”][/subheader]
[gameheader haspick=”true” picktext=”Highest Scoring Game (+500)” league=”nfl” awaylogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/buf.png” awayname=”Buffalo Bills” awayslug=”buffalo-bills” homelogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/la.png” homename=”Los Angeles Rams” homeslug=”los-angeles-rams” date=”Sunday, Dec. 8″ time=”4:25 p.m. ET” network=”FOX” bookname=”BetMGM” bookprimarylogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/779359_BetMGM800x200@1x.png” bookreviewslug=”betmgm”][/gameheader]
By Billy Ward
Try as I might, it’s hard to see any game outperforming the chalk this week.
The highest total of the slate belongs to Bills-Rams — at 49.5, this game is 3.5 points clear of any other game on Sunday.
Crucially, with a spread of just 3.5, the favored Bills should be forced to stay aggressive offensively throughout. The other high-total games on the slate all features spreads of 5.5 or more, which likely leads to one team trying to kill the clock later in the game.
This game also projects well from an offensive line standpoint, with both offensive units holding an edge over both defensive groups. That’s another key difference between this one and the rest of the slate, since most of those have one team projecting well, but not the other.
I also like the Bills to be the highest scoring team at +900 on FanDuel as an alternate angle for similar reasons. They trail the Eagles in implied total, but Philly might let up in the second half if the game gets out of hand.
Pick: Highest Scoring Game (+500)
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[subheader sizedown=”false” text=”Puka Nacua Player Props”][/subheader]
[gameheader haspick=”true” picktext=”Most Receiving Yards on Sunday — Puka Nacua (+1400)” league=”nfl” awaylogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/buf.png” awayname=”Buffalo Bills” awayslug=”buffalo-bills” homelogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/la.png” homename=”Los Angeles Rams” homeslug=”los-angeles-rams” date=”Sunday, Dec. 8″ time=”4:25 p.m. ET” network=”FOX” bookname=”DraftKings” bookprimarylogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/477013_DraftKings@1x.png” bookreviewslug=”draftkings”][/gameheader]
By Billy Ward
I’m going with another superlative bet from the same game, this time targeting Rams WR1 Puka Nacua.
Nacua leads all players in our projections with a mean receiving yards total of 85. However, he’s third in DraftKings odds to lead the slate in receiving yards.
The players ahead of him (Justin Jefferson and AJ Brown) both play for teams that are somewhat heavily favored (or very heavily favored in the case of Brown), which should limit passing volume in their games.
On the other hand, Nacua’s Rams are a slight underdog, and he’s seen at least 13 targets in every Rams loss he’s been fully healthy for.
Nacua isn’t quite the downfield threat those other players are, but he should have enough volume to at least compete with them – at considerably longer odds.
Pick: Most Receiving Yards on Sunday — Puka Nacua (+1400)
[expertpickswidget league=”nfl” gameid=”227530″ date=”20241208″ week=”” seasontype=””][/expertpickswidget]