I had another strong performance in NFL Week 13 for my weekend props piece with all four picks hitting. That moves my season-long record to 32-15 (68.1%) on bets in this weekly props piece.
For NFL Week 14, I’m looking at bets for Tyler Conklin and Tyjae Spears, with more picks likely to come.
Be sure to check back in as I add to my NFL player props betting card.
Dr. Nick’s NFL Week 14 Player Prop Picks
- TE Tyler Conklin Over 2.5 Receptions (+126 at FanDuel)
- RB Tyjae Spears Over 19.5 Rushing Yards & Titans Moneyline (+162 at DraftKings)
- QB Russell Wilson Under 19.5 Pass Completions (-115 at bet365)
[subheader sizedown=”false” text=”Tyler Conklin Over 2.5 Receptions (+126)” subtext=”” center=”false” logo1url=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/nyj.png” link1=”” link1follow=”true” logo2url=”” link2=”” link2follow=”true” trailinglogourl=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/122955_FanDuelSportsBook@1x.jpg” trailinglink=”” trailinglinkfollow=”true”][/subheader]
This matchup is a huge upgrade for Conklin given he’s faced man coverage on over 40% of his routes run this year — Miami plays man coverage at just a 24% rate.
Conklin gets more than double the target volume against zone coverage on a per-route basis than he does against man coverage, so we should expect a decent volume increase. That’s particularly true against the Dolphins, who allow the most targets per game to tight ends.
I’ll target Conklin’s receptions here because Miami is fairly solid at limiting yardage on receptions, so this is a pure volume play.
I have Conklin projected for 2.9 receptions with a 55% chance to clear 2.5, which makes this a solid edge at +126. I’d play this down to around even money.
[expertpickswidget league=”nfl” gameid=”227521″ date=”20241208″ week=”” seasontype=””][/expertpickswidget]
[subheader sizedown=”false” text=”Tyjae Spears Over 19.5 Rushing Yards & Titans Moneyline (+162)” subtext=”” center=”false” logo1url=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/ten.png” link1=”” link1follow=”true” logo2url=”” link2=”” link2follow=”true” trailinglogourl=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/477013_DraftKings@1x.png” trailinglink=”” trailinglinkfollow=”true”][/subheader]
Spears has a great chance to grab a ton of carries in this one, but without a line on his attempts, I’ll pivot to his rushing yards, which is being offered at DraftKings and BetMGM.
But to get there, the Titans will need to lead in the second half, especially late, so let’s pair that with a Titans win.
In games the Titans have won, they have had RB rushing attempt totals of 25, 33 and 37, an average of 31.7.
Starting RB Tony Pollard has grabbed 70.3% of the total rushing attempts between he and Spears in games they’ve both played, and that may be a bit inflated thanks to Spears’ injury and return game in which he was limited in snap counts. If we assume closer to a 2:1 ratio, then I love Spears’ chances to clear this yardage mark in a Titans win.
On average, I’m projecting Tennessee for 28.1 carries in this game due to a combination of factors.
First, the Jaguars allow the most opposing plays per game, so that boosts the Titans’ projected plays up to around 63. Next, the Titans have the league’s second-highest differential in pass ratio when leading vs. trailing in the second half.
Tennessee runs just 34% of the time when trailing, but 67% of the time when leading in the second half. As 3.5-point favorites, this is one of its best chances all year to play with a second-half lead.
If we give Will Levis and all other non-Pollard/Spears players a total of 5.5 carries, which may be generous, then there’s 22.6 left to go around. That would give Spears a projection of 7.5 carries. Even at just 29.7% of the carries, which has been his two-back share this year, that’s a projection of 6.7 carries.
However, that’s an average projection. If we assume the Titans win, then that number goes up.
So the best way to play Spears’ rushing yards is to assume Tennessee has the lead in the second half, which is almost guaranteed if it wins (barring a last-drive score after trailing the whole second half).
At 4.0 yards per carry, Spears would need just five totes to clear 19.5 yards on average, and my projections have him for around 6.7 on average, with even more in a Titans win.
Assuming the Titans win 61.6% of the time, which is the current vigorish-free moneyline, then Spears would need to clear 19.5 yards just 62.9% of the time to make this bet worth it at +158.
I have him clearing this north of 70% of the time if the Titans win.
Getting +162 on this is fantastic. I have this playable to +130.
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[subheader sizedown=”false” text=”Russell Wilson Under 19.5 Pass Completions (-115)” subtext=”” center=”false” logo1url=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/pit.png” link1=”” link1follow=”true” logo2url=”” link2=”” link2follow=”true” trailinglogourl=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/859377_Bet365@1x.png” trailinglink=”” trailinglinkfollow=”true”][/subheader]
The Browns have allowed a completion percentage over expected (CPOE) right around zero, but since Week 7, that figure has actually jumped to nearly 6% over expectation. Given the longer-term trend, we’d expect some regression back toward a lower CPOE.
At the same time, Russell Wilson has career-high CPOE, which clearly isn’t sustainable.
Wilson is also averaging a career high in yards per attempt and adjusted net yards per attempt, which is unusual for a QB of his archetype.
Given that both the Browns defense and Russell Wilson are in line for some completion percentage regression, that’s a good starting point to take the under on Wilson’s completions.
However, the other good part is that Cleveland allows the longest average depth of target in the league. So if there are completions, there’s a decent chance they are of the long variety, which would actually help keep this number under, as it shortens the drive.
In addition, the Steelers are favored by around a touchdown, so even though the Luck Rankings are against them, they’re still likely to win, meaning they can run the game out late to protect a small lead.
The Browns allow just 18.3 completions per game and the fourth-lowest completion percentage in the league. If any regression is in store, as is more likely than not, those numbers could be even lower.
I have Wilson projected for 18.5 completions, so I’m fine with this under at anything down to -140 at 19.5, or at any number longer than even money at 18.5.
[expertpickswidget league=”nfl” gameid=”227523″ date=”20241208″ week=”” seasontype=””][/expertpickswidget]