Action PRO models are updated and our touchdown tools show a juicy edge for Thursday Night Football between the Green Bay Packers and Detroit Lions.
When we compare the price and projections to the market, there’s one player for tonight’s game that our models are extremely high on.
Currently, the spread is listed at Lions -3.5, while the over/under is at 51.5 — the highest of any total for this week’s slate, opening up the door for potential fireworks.
The Action Analytics Team runs a comprehensive system factoring in everything from price, probability, route-running participation, and more.
After stacking up our odds to score relative to the market, check out our Thursday Night Football touchdown prediction for Packers vs. Lions.
NFL Touchdown Odds for Thursday Night Football: Packers vs Lions Pick
Here’s how the best touchdown picks from our PRO models make the cut.
Let’s say a player is +400 to score a touchdown. At +400 odds, the market implies a 20% chance to score.
If Action PRO Projections predict the same player to score 26% of the time, the edge is 6%. Or, our 26% chance implies a fair price of more like +284. We recommend taking a 3.5% edge or better if only tailing PRO Projections.
The Packers’ scoring is typically spread out, while the Lions’ usual cast of characters in Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jahmyr Gibbs, and David Montgomery are priced with favorable odds to score.
Tonight, after our projections are updated, our best bet for Packers vs. Lions is officially in range, and that’s Lions WR Jameson Williams.
Williams is listed at +275 at bet365, but our fair projection for him to score is close to 40%.
Additionally, Gilles Gallant, one of our NFL betting experts, has pinpointed Williams as a high-value pick. Since returning from suspension, Williams has registered 14 targets in two games. He also specializes in eating up Cover 2 defenses — a formation Green Bay runs at the fourth-highest rate.
There’s plenty of upside for the third-year wide receiver to find the end zone tonight.
PRO TD Projections Pick: Jameson Williams TD (+275)
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