My projections help power our Action PRO subscription, and every week I see some edges in the anytime touchdown scorer market that stand out.
This week, ahead of NFL Week 14, three players stood out after full touchdown odds were released for this week’s slate of games. I’m not going to be logging these picks in the Action App, but they’re edges that I feel are noteworthy in the NFL props world. You can bet them, put them in a round robin or use them however you see fit. Action PRO has more projections like these for every player every week.
I have one player who’s below +300 to start the week and two picks at +650 or higher. Here are the three players who stood out in the touchdown market to start NFL Week 14.
NFL Props: Week 14 Anytime TD Scorers
Odds listed below are as of 5:10 p.m. ET on Wednesday afternoon.
[gameheader haspick=”true” picktext=”Brian Thomas Jr. Anytime TD Scorer (+255)” league=”nfl” awaylogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/jac.png” awayname=”Jaguars” awayslug=”jacksonville-jaguars” homelogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/ten.png” homename=”Titans” homeslug=”tennessee-titans” date=”Sunday, Dec. 8″ time=”1 p.m. ET” network=”ESPN” bookname=”DraftKings” bookprimarylogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/477013_DraftKings@1x.png” bookreviewslug=”draftkings”][/gameheader]
Brian Thomas Jr. has had a fantastic rookie season and was one of my favorite receivers from the 2024 class. The comparison I came up with while watching his film was Randy Moss.
Thomas’ size, speed and style of play is similar to Moss is many ways. Obviously, Moss is a first-ballot Hall of Famer for a reason. He had those skills when few others did.
I’ve already cashed a season-long future on Thomas this season. I bet over 4.5 receiving touchdowns before the season, and he’s cleared that.
That doesn’t mean we’re done making money on him.
Despite cashing in with a touchdown last week, he actually had two more touchdowns that were there for the taking. He was wide open on a potential touchdown of more than 70 yards but was overthrown by Mac Jones, and he was unable to hold onto another play from more than 20 yards out, but the ball hit his hands.
I’m projecting Thomas closer to a fair price of +220, but I think he has much more upside than my projections imply since he’s on the verge of becoming one of the NFL’s top receivers.
[gameheader haspick=”true” picktext=”Malik Washington Anytime TD Scorer (+675)” league=”nfl” awaylogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/nyj.png” awayname=”Jets” awayslug=”new-york-jets” homelogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/mia.png” homename=”Dolphins” homeslug=”miami-dolphins” date=”Sunday, Dec. 8″ time=”1 p.m. ET” network=”ESPN” bookname=”Caesars” bookprimarylogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/256064_caesars_800x200.png” bookreviewslug=”caesars-sportsbook”][/gameheader]
Malik Washington continues to operate as the Dolphins‘ No. 3 receiver. He’s a player who I was blown away by in preseason with his ability to make explosive plays in a variety of ways.
There’s a chance that the Jets defense focuses on the quartet of Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle, Jonnu Smith and De’Von Achane here. The other playmaker on the field is likely to be Washington.
Washington is excellent as a runner and scored an 18-yard touchdown on a jet sweep back in Week 10 to open the scoring in the Dolphins’ win over the Rams. Miami has run a designed rush for Washington in five of its last six games. He’s also the Dolphins’ main kick and punt returner, which gives him an additional path to score.
Washington isn’t a player many people know much about (yet) or would think to bet on. I think +650 is offering value and project him closer to +550.
[gameheader haspick=”true” picktext=”Josh Oliver Anytime TD Scorer (+750)” league=”nfl” awaylogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/atl.png” awayname=”Falcons” awayslug=”minnesota-vikings” homelogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/min.png” homename=”Vikings” homeslug=”minnesota-vikings” date=”Sunday, Dec. 8″ time=”1 p.m. ET” network=”ESPN” bookname=”Caesars” bookprimarylogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/256064_caesars_800x200.png” bookreviewslug=”caesars-sportsbook”][/gameheader]
Josh Oliver is expected to return in Week 14 after missing the last two weeks with an ankle injury. He’s a sneaky bet to score here because the Vikings have been using two-tight end sets at a higher rate than past years, something they’re more likely to do when in the red zone. Minnesota may be a bit hesitant to give Aaron Jones as much work due to his fumbling issues and could be a bit more pass-heavy inside the 20-yard line as a result.
Plus, Oliver has more receiving touchdowns (two) than Justin Jefferson (one) since the Vikings’ Week 6 bye week, and that’s despite Oliver playing in two fewer games.
Obviously out-producting Jefferson is unsustainable over the course of an entire season, but I think the odds for Oliver are way too high here and project him closer to +450.
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