Three NFL teams in Week 14 are pure fade material against the spread, according to PRO insights.
One of Action Labs’ neatest situational angle alerted three picks for NFL Sunday. The theory of the model is betting against teams performing well beyond expectations.
This backtested, PRO System found that at certain points in the season, it’s time to jump ship on these sides.
Check out a trio of games for Sunday of NFL Week 14 across the early and late-afternoon windows which fit – and which picks have historically been excellent against the spread.
NFL Spread Picks, Model Predictions for Week 14
Action PRO’s “Fade Covering Teams” is live!
This particular angle is active in Week 5 and beyond, and it snuffs out teams exceeding the closing line.
If an NFL team covering the spread by more than five points per game on average plays a team with a win percentage between 0-60%, the team covering lines by 5+ per game only beats the spread 44% of the time.
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Browns vs. Steelers Odds, Pick
The Steelers are -6.5 favorites Sunday at home. The model pick is on the Browns to cover in Week 14.
The Russell Wilson-fueled Steelers are covering the spread by 5.25 points per game, including six of their last seven. History says they’re due to come down to earth, especially against a team like Cleveland, which boasts a 25% win percentage.
Pittsburgh has wins of 19 and 22 over its last seven games, but those came against the Raiders and Jets.
Panthers vs. Eagles Odds, Pick
Another side PRO Systems highlighted as a bet against in the early window Sunday are the Philadelphia Eagles (-12.5) vs. the Carolina Panthers.
The Eagles just upset the Ravens last week and are heating up to inflate their spread stats. Overall, they’re covering by 5.75 points per game this season.
However, past instances favor teams like the Panthers. Therefore, the prediction is on Bryce Young and Carolina to stay within the double-digit point spread.
Bills vs. Rams Odds, Pick
Just when Josh Allen‘s entering the MVP conversation and the Bills climb up the AFC pecking order, PRO Systems suggest fading Buffalo against the spread when the Bills visit the Rams. Odds list the Bills -4.5.
Allen and the Bills are covering by more than seven points per game this season following a 25-point win against the 49ers.
Taking the Rams — which have a win percentage in the wheelhouse for Fade Covering Teams — has historically been a smart call.
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