I have two bets tonight fading the Denver offense for my Broncos vs. Browns props for Monday Night Football.
One is a player prop and another is a Broncos total. Let’s get right into it.
Broncos vs. Browns Props
[subheader sizedown=”false” text=”Devaughn Vele Under 3.5 Receptions Yards (-110)” subtext=”” center=”false” logo1url=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/den.png” link1=”https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/odds/denver-broncos” link1follow=”true” logo2url=”” link2=”” link2follow=”true” trailinglogourl=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/122955_FanDuelSportsBook@1x.jpg” trailinglink=”https://www.actionnetwork.com/online-sports-betting/reviews/fanduel” trailinglinkfollow=”true”][/subheader]
Vele sees a 10% reduction in targets per route run against man coverage, which the Browns play at the sixth-highest rate in the NFL.
He also sees a reduction in target share against the blitz and when Bo Nix is under pressure. Well, the Browns rank second in pressure and fifth in blitzes.
Josh Reynolds is probably going to return for the Broncos, which shouldn’t reduce Vele’s snaps or routes run rate. It may add some extra competition for targets, though, especially against man coverage.
This is also a fade of Nix, who struggles when under pressure. That’s also a big part of my next bet.
[subheader sizedown=”false” text=”Broncos Team Total Under 23.5 (+110)” subtext=”” center=”false” logo1url=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/den.png” link1=”https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/odds/denver-broncos” link1follow=”true” logo2url=”” link2=”” link2follow=”true” trailinglogourl=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/859377_Bet365@1x.png” trailinglink=”https://www.actionnetwork.com/online-sports-betting/reviews/bet365″ trailinglinkfollow=”true”][/subheader]
Bo Nix has faced a comically low amount of pressure this season, but he has struggled when he has. Nix is averaged 1.06 ANY/A (adjust net yards per pass attempt) against pressure compared to 7.61 with a clean pocket.
Nix hasn’t faced a team that creates pressure at a top-six rate this season, and the Browns rank second. He’s only faced five teams that generate pressure above 20% of the time, and the Broncos are averaging 12 points per game in those.
Denver’s peak performance in those five games was when it scored 20 against the Seahawks, although only one of those was an offensive touchdown. In the other seven games against sub-20% pressure teams, Denver’s floor is 16 points and it’s averaging 29.1 per game.
Yes, the Browns defense hasn’t been great this season, but it has faced a brutal schedule, especially of late. All 3 of the Browns’ games against teams 18th or worse in offensive DVOA came in the first four weeks of the season. They gave up an average of 18 points per game in those. Denver is 20th in offensive DVOA.
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