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Houston vs. BYU Prediction, Odds, Pick, College Football Betting Preview for Week 14

Houston (4-7, 3-5 Big 12) plays BYU (9-2, 6-2 Big 12) in Provo, Utah, on Saturday, Nov. 30. The game kicks off at 10:15 p.m. ET and can be streamed live on ESPNU.

BYU is a 13-point favorite on the spread with a 41.5-point over/under.

Houston’s offense has stalled recently, while BYU is squarely in the middle of the Big 12 conference championship race.

I suspect a high-energy game from BYU in front of a packed house for the home finale.

Read on for my Houston vs. BYU predictions and college football picks.

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  • Houston vs. BYU Pick: Under 41

My Houston vs. BYU best bet is on the under, with the best line currently available at bet365, according to our live NCAAF odds page.

Houston vs. BYU Odds, Spread, Lines

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  • Houston vs. BYU Spread: BYU -11.5, Houston +11.5
  • Houston vs. BYU Over/Under: 40.5 Points
  • Houston vs. BYU Moneyline: BYU ML -520, Houston ML +385

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Houston Cougars Betting Preview

Houston has lost back-to-back games because its offense continually underwhelms. The Cougars have been too inconsistent running the football on third downs and in the red zone.

Willie Fritz is a good coach who will build a solid program in the longer term, but with all the personnel and scheme changes, this was a true Year 0 situation. The growing pains have been apparent all season.

At the minimum, Houston’s defense has been excellent and playing its best football over the past month — the front seven has held opponents to 2.9 yards per carry over the past four games. The Cougars rank seventh nationally in Success Rate allowed and 13th in EPA per Play allowed.

BYU Cougars Betting Preview

BYU opened the year 9-0 and reached the sixth spot in the AP Poll at one point. But some of that magic has run out. Back-to-back losses have opened the door for other teams in the Big 12 race.

BYU was winning games in unsustainable ways, and the regression has hit the Cougars like a freight train.

That said, I expect BYU to be focused on the task at hand this Saturday with a conference championship appearance on the line. That’s especially true on the defensive side of the ball, where the Cougars rank among the top 10 stop units in EPA per Pass allowed and Pass Success Rate allowed.

Houston vs. BYU Matchup Analysis

Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Houston and BYU match up statistically:

Houston Offense vs. BYU Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success 130 92
Line Yards 117 53
Pass Success 112 27
Havoc 132 56
Finishing Drives 134 68
Quality Drives 97 45
BYU Offense vs. Houston Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success 46 35
Line Yards 49 25
Pass Success 60 64
Havoc 59 59
Finishing Drives 70 43
Quality Drives 14 50
Pace of Play / Other
PFF Tackling 55 82
PFF Coverage 68 47
Special Teams SP+ 126 9
Middle 8 87 32
Seconds per Play 30.2 (127) 28.9 (111)
Rush Rate 61% (32) 53% (70)
Data via CollegeFootballData.com, SP+, Pro Football Focus and SportSource Analytics.

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I like the under in this one.

While BYU hasn’t played all that well lately, the Cougars still boast a talented defense that should shut down Houston’s stuck-in-the-mud offense.

Meanwhile, Houston boasts a competent defense, which should provide some resistance. Especially against a BYU offense that’s regressed significantly over the past few weeks — the Cougars ground game has been unproductive, and quarterback Jake Retzlaff hasn’t hit the deep shots.

I don’t expect either offense to stay on the field much, given Houston has converted only 27% of its third downs this season, while BYU has converted only 35%.

And I don’t expect either offense to punch it in once they get into scoring position. Houston has six red-zone touchdowns in 21 trips on the year — among the worst conversion rates nationally — while BYU has scored touchdowns on just 21 of its 40 red-zone possessions. I expect plenty of field goal attempts.

I trust both defenses to get the job done on Saturday. And I don’t expect BYU to rack up style points if the game gets out of hand, as the Cougars want to win, get out of dodge, and prepare for a potential conference championship game.

Pick: Under 41

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Houston vs. BYU Start Time, Channel, Streaming, How To Watch

Location: LaVell Edwards Stadium, Provo, UT
Date: Saturday, Nov. 30
Kickoff Time: 10:15 p.m. ET
TV / Streaming: ESPN

Houston vs BYU will be played at LaVell Edwards Stadium in Provo, Utah, on Saturday, Nov. 30 at 10:15 p.m. ET. You can stream the game live on ESPN.

Houston vs. BYU Betting Trends

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Houston vs. BYU Weather

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Joshua Nunn

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