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Washington vs Oregon Predictions and Week 14 College Football Picks

“The Game” is so antiquated. Everyone knows the Big Ten’s real best rivalry is between Washington and Oregon.

OK, maybe not, but given the recent history of Oregon head coach Dan Lanning, this is sure to be an intense game.

Washington (6-5, 4-4 Big Ten) is 3-0 against Lanning in his career as the Ducks coach, including crucially beating Oregon 2 times last season to keep the Ducks out of the College Football Playoff.

Circumstances are drastically different this time around with Oregon (11-0, 8-0) the toast of the town and a lock for the CFP, while the Huskies had to hang on for dear life just to secure bowl eligibility.

Oregon enters as a -18 favorite with the over/under sitting at 51. With not much to play for, will the Ducks still bring enough heat to cover a 3-score spread?

Let’s take a look at my Washington vs. Oregon predictions and college football picks for Saturday, Nov. 30.

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  • Washington vs Oregon Pick: Oregon -18

My Oregon vs. Washington best bet is on the Ducks to cover the spread, with the best line currently available at bet365, according to our live NCAAF odds page.

Washington vs Oregon Odds, Spread

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  • Washington vs Oregon Spread: Washington +18 · Oregon -18
  • Washington vs Oregon Over/Under: 51.5
  • Washington vs Oregon Moneyline: Washington ML +600 · Oregon ML -900

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Washington Recap: Why Huskies Can Win

Just as expected, a transfer quarterback may be the hero of Washington’s season.

That transfer quarterback, however, is not the previously well-regarded Will Rogers. Instead, it’s true freshman Demond Williams, who originally enrolled at Arizona before transferring north with Jedd Fisch.

The freshman quarterback relieved Rogers for the second consecutive game last time out for the Huskies against UCLA, completing 7-of-8 passes for 67 yards and a touchdown to stave off a Bruins comeback.

It’s the type of spark needed for the Huskies heading into the offseason after an otherwise forgettable season.

Washington’s pass attack has performed relatively well without Michael Penix Jr., ranking 17th in Pass Success Rate thanks to a talented receiver group led by Denzel Boston.

The workhorse for the Huskies, however, has been running back Jonah Coleman. Coleman is one of five Big Ten backs with over 1,000 yards rushing and has the second-highest carry average of that quintet with 5.8 yards per carry.

On the other side of the ball, run defense has been a major issue. The Huskies’ run defense ranks 15th in the Big Ten and has been gashed for 220 or more yards twice in the last five games.

One small saving grace has been its pass defense. Only Ohio State allows fewer passing yards per game in the Big Ten than the Huskies.

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Oregon Recap: Why Ducks Can Win

Lanning fights for wins, not clicks, and it’s never been more apparent than in his third season in Eugene.

A win over Washington would propel the Ducks to their first undefeated regular season since 2010 when Chip Kelly’s team lost in the BCS National Championship to Auburn and Cam Newton.

To get there, the Ducks have utilized one of the most efficient offenses in the country. This unit ranks inside the top 20 in both Rush Success Rate and Pass Success Rate.

Heisman contender Dillon Gabriel has almost 200 more yards passing than any other Big Ten quarterback and is on pace to finish with a completion percentage above 70% for the first time in his six-year career.

Gabriel has quite a stable of options to throw to, including tight end Terrance Ferguson and a trio of receivers led by Tez Johnson who all have over 500 yards receiving.

Running back Jordan James hasn’t skipped a beat in replacing Bucky Irving as one of the aforementioned quintet of Big Ten running backs with over 1,000 yards rushing. He’s been aided immensely by the continuation of Oregon having one of the country’s best offensive lines.

While previously an Achilles’ heel, Oregon’s defense has made improvements since last season, especially against the pass. The Ducks come in at sixth in Pass Success Rate allowed and have only had one of their past five opponents throw for more than 165 yards.

Oregon vs Washington Matchup Analysis

Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Oregon and Washington match up statistically:

Washington Offense vs. Oregon Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success 23 42
Line Yards 20 87
Pass Success 17 6
Havoc 51 6
Finishing Drives 104 31
Quality Drives 50 9
Oregon Offense vs. Washington Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success 17 108
Line Yards 14 97
Pass Success 8 5
Havoc 10 88
Finishing Drives 30 46
Quality Drives 23 61
Pace of Play / Other
PFF Tackling 1 6
PFF Coverage 10 5
Special Teams SP+ 131 22
Middle 8 97 79
Seconds per Play 27.7 (82) 27.2 (67)
Rush Rate 49% (101) 52% (72)
Data via CollegeFootballData.com, SP+, Pro Football Focus and SportSource Analytics.

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It’d be easy to assume Oregon packs it in for this one to rest for the Big Ten Championship, but I think Washington is just about the only exception I’d make to that expectation.

Lanning definitely has some psycho tendencies, and I think they’ll be on full display as he seeks revenge for what the Huskies did to Oregon in 2023.

If not starting, I expect Williams to take the majority of quarterback snaps for the Huskies, and playing on the road in a loud, hostile Autzen Stadium is not ideal for a freshman quarterback with 53 career pass attempts.

Whether it’s by air early or on the ground late, Lanning will keep his foot on the gas and not worry about running up the score.

Each of the last three meetings between these teams has been decided by three points, but this regular-season finale will be decided by at least three scores.

Pick: Oregon -18

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Washington vs Oregon Start Time, TV Channel, Location, How to Watch

Location: Autzen Stadium, Eugene, OR
Date: Saturday, Nov. 30
Kickoff Time: 7:30 p.m. ET
TV / Streaming: NBC

Washington will head to Eugene on Saturday, Nov. 30 to face Oregon at 7:30 p.m. ET on NBC.

Oregon vs Washington Betting Trends

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Oregon vs Washington Weather

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