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Oklahoma vs LSU Prediction, Odds, Picks, Week 14 NCAAF Betting Guide

Who will reign supreme in a matchup of head coaches with huge contracts that their schools may already regret?

That six-year contract extension Brett Venables signed in the offseason was starting to look like a mistake as Oklahoma stumbled its way through its first season in the SEC. But then last week happened, as the Sooners shockingly held Alabama to just three points.

The same kind of positivity leading into this game can’t be said for LSU. While the Tigers did stop their 3-game losing streak with a win over Vanderbilt last week, Brian Kelly remains firmly on the hot seat for a vocal fanbase that will see its fewest wins since Ed Orgeron.

Hot seat aside, it’s LSU who is still about a touchdown favorite. Can Kelly and his Tigers win decisively enough to keep him around for 2025? The Tigers are a 5.5-point favorite on the spread with a 47-point over/under.

Let’s look at my Oklahoma vs. LSU predictions and college football picks for Saturday, November 30.

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  • Oklahoma vs. LSU Pick: LSU -5.5

My Oklahoma vs. LSU best bet is on the Tigers against the spread, with the best line currently available at FanDuel, according to our live NCAAF odds page.

Oklahoma vs LSU Odds, Lines

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  • Oklahoma vs LSU Point Spread: LSU -5.5, Oklahoma +5.5
  • Oklahoma vs LSU Total: Over/Under 48.5
  • Oklahoma vs LSU Moneyline: LSU ML -215, Oklahoma ML +176
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Oklahoma Sooners Betting Preview

Some regression was expected in Brett Venables’ third season as head coach and Oklahoma’s first in the SEC, but the Sooners have failed to meet even those lowered expectations. A midseason offensive coordinator firing and a quarterback carousel are emblematic of Oklahoma’s problems.

The Sooners’ win over Alabama was obviously huge, but it did nothing to assuage the offense’s concerns, particularly at quarterback. Jackson Arnold finished the game with just 68 total passing yards, further highlighting Oklahoma’s Pass Success Rate of 116th.

While Arnold did next to nothing with his arm, it was a huge day with his legs. He finished with 131 rushing yards — the first time he has ever broken triple-digit yardage — as the Sooners collectively rushed for 257 yards.

Oklahoma’s 257 yards were the most this year against Power Four competition, which is a bit surprising for a team that has struggled as much as it has along the offensive line and is only 10th in the SEC in rushing.

Oklahoma’s only consistent factor in keeping games competitive has been its defense. The Sooners are fourth nationally in Rush Success Rate allowed and have held three of their past five opponents to fewer than 75 total rushing yards.

Importantly for this game, Oklahoma isn’t quite as good at defending the pass. It ranks 76th in Coverage and outside the top 50 in Pass Success Rate allowed.

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LSU Tigers Betting Preview

If there was ever luster on the Brian Kelly hire, it has certainly worn off by now. LSU was expected to compete for a College Football Playoff berth, but with four losses already, Tigers fans are left making plans for something in the ReliaQuest Bowl vicinity.

Replacing a Heisman winner at quarterback is always challenging, but Garrett Nussmeier has far from been the issue for the Tigers. Nussmeier is one of two SEC quarterbacks averaging more than 300 yards passing per game, and his 23 passing touchdowns are tied for the second most in the conference.

Only five teams in the country run less often than LSU, which is last in the SEC with 117.6 rushing yards per game.

LSU’s defense has made some impressive gains from the sieve that it was in 2023, but it’s still average at best. The Tigers remain in the bottom four of the conference in scoring defense and run defense.

If there’s a major concern, it will be stopping a heavy dose of Oklahoma rushing. The Sooners ran it 50 times against Alabama. The last two teams to rush at least 48 times against LSU, Texas A&M and Alabama combined for 11 rushing touchdowns.

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LSU vs Oklahoma Matchup Analysis

Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how LSU and Oklahoma match up statistically:

Oklahoma Offense vs. LSU Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success 89 57
Line Yards 86 48
Pass Success 116 86
Havoc 127 38
Finishing Drives 110 39
Quality Drives 119 89
LSU Offense vs. Oklahoma Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success 97 4
Line Yards 93 19
Pass Success 27 53
Havoc 11 20
Finishing Drives 67 32
Quality Drives 10 15
Pace of Play / Other
PFF Tackling 20 74
PFF Coverage 76 96
Special Teams SP+ 24 50
Middle 8 60 65
Seconds per Play 25.4 (33) 27.3 (70)
Rush Rate 59% (46) 41% (129)
Data via CollegeFootballData.com, SP+, Pro Football Focus and SportSource Analytics.

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Neither of these teams is happy with how their seasons are ending.

While Oklahoma is entering on a higher note, it’s still been an otherwise miserable season.

LSU’s run defense certainly concerns me. Teams that run the ball as much as Oklahoma does might have had tremendous success against the Tigers. But I’m just not convinced what the Sooners did on offense against Alabama is replicable.

We’ve never seen Jackson Arnold have that type of rush success before. While the Alabama game was the fifth time Oklahoma has carried the ball at least 35 times against an SEC opponent, it was the first time it has ever averaged more than 3.6 yards per carry in one of those games.

While dominant against the run, the Sooners aren’t as good against the pass, and Garrett Nussmeier has one of the best arms in the country with a pretty deep list of options to throw to. The Tigers will have enough success throwing the ball that they’ll be able to keep this out of reach from Oklahoma.

The Alabama win was nice, but that success won’t carry over to Baton Rouge.

Pick: LSU -5.5 (Play to -6)

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Oklahoma vs LSU Start Time, Channel, Streaming, How To Watch

Location: Tiger Stadium, Baton Rouge, Louisiana
Date: Saturday, Nov. 30
Kickoff Time: 7 p.m. ET
TV / Streaming: ESPN

Oklahoma vs LSU will be played at Tiger Stadium in Baton Rouge, Louisiana, on Saturday, Nov. 30 at 7 p.m. ET. You can stream the game live on ESPN.

Oklahoma vs LSU Betting Trends

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Oklahoma vs LSU Weather

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