College Football Bowl Projections: Brett McMurphy’s Week 14 Predictions & College Football Playoff Picks

So, this is going to be awkward. With one week remaining, there are 77 bowl-eligible teams for 82 spots, and there are two games this week matching 5-5 teams — Virginia at Virginia Tech and Eastern Michigan at Western Michigan.

That guarantees 79 bowl-eligible teams for 82 spots.

However, there are another 12 five-win teams needing only a win this week to become bowl-eligible, providing between 79 and 91 teams for 82 bowl spots.

This is where it gets awkward. Obviously, if there are more than 82 teams with six wins, then — guess what — somebody or somebodies are going to get left out.

Who would be on the outside isn’t clear-cut. Basically each conference has a number of primary and secondary bowl tie-ins. ESPN also has a say in all of its ESPN-owned bowls with the flexibility to choose from numerous conferences, which mostly impacts the Group of Five teams.

And — my favorite each year — there’s always some horse trading between bowls and conferences each year to move teams when needed.

And you thought the College Football Playoff selection committee process was complicated?

Speaking of the playoff, my projected CFP field this week includes top four seeds/conference champions Oregon (Big Ten), Georgia (SEC), Miami (ACC) and Arizona State (Big 12).

The rest of my 12-team playoff field: Boise State (Mountain West champion) and at-large teams Ohio State, Penn State, Indiana, Texas, Tennessee, SMU and Notre Dame.

Now, back to bowls. If all of the five-win teams somehow lose this week and the bowl system needs teams with 5-7 records to fill the remaining spots, here is the order they would be selected based on APR (Academic Progress Rate),

1. Northwestern, 4-7
2. Cincinnati, 5-6
3. Wisconsin, 5-6
4. Air Force, 4-7
5. Wake Forest, 4-7
6. Auburn, 5-6
7. Virginia, 5-6
8. NC State, 5-6
9. Utah, 4-7 (tie)

Here are my Week 14 bowl projections, including the projected point spread of each matchup from Action Network senior writer Collin Wilson’s betting power ratings.

Also, click on the link to download the free Action Network app. It’s the perfect place to check scores, track bets, and read analysis and news.

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[subheader sizedown=”false” text=”Projected College Football Playoff Field” center=”true”][/subheader]

*Conference champions projected to receive automatic bids

In my projected College Football Playoff field, I have Oregon coming in as the top overall seed as the Big Ten champion, followed by Georgia as the SEC champion, Miami as the ACC champion and Arizona State as the Big 12 champion.

My No. 12 seed is the highest-ranked remaining conference champion, the Boise State Broncos out of the Mountain West. I have the Sun Devils ranked ahead of the Broncos, giving them the No. 4 seed over Boise State.

In my projected field, the Big Ten gets three at-large selections (Ohio State, Penn State and Indiana), the SEC gets two (Texas and Tennessee) and the ACC gets one (SMU).

Independent Notre Dame also cracked the field as my No. 6 seed.

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[subheader sizedown=”false” text=”College Football Playoff Quarterfinals” center=”true”][/subheader]

[subheader sizedown=”false” text=”College Football Playoff Semifinals” center=”true”][/subheader]

[subheader sizedown=”false” text=”CFP National Championship Prediction” center=”true”][/subheader]

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[subheader sizedown=”false” text=”Projections for All Other Bowl Games” center=”true”][/subheader]

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