Fading teams due for letdowns and Action PRO’s “blowout” angle highlight the smartest spread and over/unders for NFL Week 12.
We’re analyzing three of our proprietary betting models and combined, the trio of PRO Systems submitted eight picks — and there’s a hot side matching multiple of the three situational angles.
Let’s gloss over all three NFL betting models, including the eight spread and over/unders that match.
Spread, Over/Unders for Week 12: Sharp Picks from Expert NFL Betting Models
We have a dedicated NFL PRO System that spotlights precisely when to bet against teams and fade them against the spread.
Lo and behold, the “Fade Covering Teams” model is active with a bunch of picks for Sunday Week 12.
This situational angle works like this: If a team is covering the spread by more than 5 points per game, and they’re playing a team with a win percentage less than 60%, the team covering the spread by more than 5 points per game only covers 41% of the time, lending an edge to their opponent. This trend activates in Week 5 and on in order to beef up the sample size.
Four teams are covering way beyond market expectations and are being asked to cover the spread as favorites yet again Sunday: The Lions, Vikings, Broncos and Commanders.
Therefore, their opponents — the Colts, Bears, Raiders and Cowboys, respectively — are the picks to make.
Fade Covering Teams Picks:
- Colts to cover vs. Lions
- Bears to cover vs. Vikings
- Raiders to cover vs. Broncos
- Cowboys to cover vs. Commanders
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Switching gears to over/under picks, the “Divisional Unders” PRO System spit out several suggested selections for Sunday.
Due to familiarity, weather and more, this system reveals that when divisional opponents meet outdoors in Week 9 and beyond, the game has gone under the closing total 60% of the time.
Three divisional games match the bill Sunday: Cardinals vs. Seahawks, Patriots vs. Dolphins and Cowboys vs. Commanders.
Divisional Unders Picks:
- Cardinals vs. Seahawks Under
- Cowboys vs. Commanders Under
- Patriots vs. Dolphins Under
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Finally, the PRO System “Dogs After Blowout” spotlighted a pick fitting multiple Action PRO models: The Cowboys, who were blown out by the Texans on a prime-time stage.
Since we started tracking, teams coming off losses of 20 or more have covered the spread 57% of the time the next week if they’re +3 or more.
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Dogs After Blowout Picks:
- Cowboys to cover vs. Commanders
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