Our NFL Luck Rankings can be used to bet on unlucky teams that meet one of three criteria:
- A difference of at least 24 places in our weekly NFL Luck Rankings (Luck Difference).
- A Luck% difference (Luck Gap) of at least 50% between two opposing teams at any point in the season.
- A Luck% difference (Luck Gap) of at least 30% between two opposing teams in Week 13 or later.
Unlucky teams meeting at least one of these three criteria are 126-73-6 (62.9%) against the spread (ATS) in regular-season games other than the last week of the season when using closing lines, which are the hardest to beat.
In Week 11, the Jaguars got blown out in the the only Luck Matchup of the week. That moves the unlucky team in luck-based matchups to a 13-12-1 (51.9%) record ATS on the season.
The three Luck Totals in Week 10 were all Luck Unders that went 2-1 to the under. That moves Luck Unders to 8-8-0 on the season, while Luck Overs remain a perfect 4-0-0. Combined, Luck Totals have a 12-8-0 (60%) record this season.
As a reminder here are the criteria for Luck Totals:
- A Luck Total above +10 after Week 3.
- A Luck Total above +5 after Week 11.
- A Luck Total below -5 after Week 2.
Sides and totals meeting any Luck Ranking criteria are 25-20-1 (55.4%) on the season.
This week, there’s two Luck Matchups and a Luck Under. Let’s take a look.
NFL Luck Rankings Week 12 Games
Steelers vs. Browns
Luck Difference: 26
Luck Gap: 34.7%
Unlucky teams in games with a Luck Difference of 24 or more after Week 11 are 27-8-1 (76.4%) ATS, giving the Browns solid footing to start the analysis off.
This game has slop potential, with rain possible and relatively winds likely. That should keep scoring down, which tends to help underdog teams as well. That also makes three a slightly less key number, as the potential for missed extra points goes up.
Cleveland also has a slight nod in its favor in two other metrics I’ve been valuing: QB coverage matchups and weighted early-down success rate edges.
All these factors together make me like the Browns. I’m just waiting to see if another +4 pops up on gameday as a score like 20-16, for example, becomes slightly more possible thanks to the weather. That said, a three-point margin is still the most likely outcome, so I’m fine taking +3.5 on the Browns.
Verdict: Wait for +4, bet +3.5 if no +4s pop up
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Titans vs. Texans
Luck Total: -5.2
I already bet the under here at a total of 42 on Tuesday because I have almost all my important signals on the under.
In addition to the luck angle, with the -5.2 Luck Total crossing the -5 threshold, I also show a couple important metrics that matter:
- Overpossession
- Weighted early-down success rates
Starting with No. 1, these teams have combined for more than 64 minutes of possession per game. Barring overtime, that’s not possible here, so we should expect scoring to go down as one or both teams’ defenses — which is each teams’ strength — spend more time on the field against comparatively weaker offenses.
The second point is important as well, as these teams face an average upgrade in quality compared to the defenses they’ve been facing recently. The early-down success rate allowed of the Titans and Texans’ opponents has, more recently, been about 7% higher than these two defenses have allowed of late. That means both offenses can expect to face third-and-long situations more frequently than they have been lately.
This total has since moved below the key number of 41 down to 40.5, so if you missed out on the 42 or 41.5, it’s probably wise to just wait and see if a 41 pops back up.
Closer to game time as we know start/sit details, there still may be value on the under even at 40.5, but the devil’s in the details there.
Verdict: Wait, but bet under at 41 or higher
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49ers vs. Packers
Luck Difference: 26
Luck Gap: 34.9%
San Francisco gets the nod as the unlucky team with the biggest Luck Gap of the week, and also fits the 24+ trend.
San Francisco actually leads Green Bay in schedule-adjusted Expected Win% from our Expected Scores, which power the Luck Rankings, and the 49ers rank sixth in DVOA compared to Green Bay’s eighth-place ranking.
I have this game much closer to a pick’em than I do 2.5, where the line currently rests.
The biggest reason I haven’t bet this game yet is because 49ers QB Brock Purdy has popped up on the injury report with soreness in his throwing shoulder.
For that reason — and that reason alone — we have to wait. If Purdy has a clean bill of health, I’ll be on the 49ers at +2.5.
Verdict: Wait
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