NFL Power Rankings Week 12: Expert Ranks Luckiest Teams

Action Network’s NFL Luck Rankings — a betting-focused version of NFL Power Rankings developed by Action Network’s Predictive Analytics team — are out for Week 12.

These rankings are designed to help identify which teams’ results have been luckier — or unluckier — than their on-field performance indicates.

For more on how the Luck Rankings work, check out this detailed concept overview. You can also check out our season primer to understand how to use these rankings to bet on the NFL.

An NFL game must qualify for one of the following three criteria to be considered a “Luck Game.”

1. A difference of at least 24 places in our weekly NFL Luck Rankings.
2. A Luck% difference of at least 50% between two opposing teams at any point in the season.
3. A Luck% difference of at least 30% between two opposing teams in Week 13 or later.

The unlucky team in matchups that fit one of those criteria is 126-73-6 (62.9%) against the spread (ATS) in the regular season other than the last week of the season when using closing lines — the hardest lines to beat.

In Week 11, the lone Luck Matchups that met our thresholds went 0-1 ATS, moving those teams to 13-12-1 (51.9%) against the spread (ATS) on the season.

Luck Totals must meet one of three criteria:

1. A Luck Total above +10 after Week 3.
2. A Luck Total above +5 after Week 11.
3. A Luck Total below -5 after Week 2.

There were no Luck Totals in Week 10, so Luck Unders remain 8-8-0 on the season while Luck Overs are 4-0-0. Luck Totals are 12-8-0 (60%) this season.

All luck-based bets meeting any side or total criteria are 25-20-1 (55.4%).

Here’s how our NFL Luck Rankings shake out for Week 12.

NFL Week 12 Luck Rankings

Note: Luck % represents the win probability swing between a team’s expected winning percentage from their on-field performance and their actual winning percentage. Lucky teams may regress and could be overvalued by betting markets.

RANK	TEAM	Luck %
1	Packers	22.81%
2	Chiefs	21.68%
3	Steelers	20.14%
4	Chargers	18.57%
5	Bills	17.06%
6	Lions	13.30%
7	Cardinals	12.13%
8	Falcons	10.83%
9	Panthers	10.31%
10	Eagles	10.17%
11	Colts	6.57%
12	Vikings	4.31%
13	Seahawks	2.08%
14	Texans	0.83%
15	Commanders	0.27%
16	Cowboys	-1.23%
17	Ravens	-1.50%
18	Rams	-2.93%
19	Bears	-5.62%
20	Patriots	-6.09%
21	Buccaneers	-6.98%
22	Dolphins	-9.78%
23	Raiders	-11.05%
24	Broncos	-11.29%
25	Jaguars	-11.81%
26	Saints	-11.99%
27	49ers	-12.05%
28	Bengals	-12.65%
29	Browns	-14.52%
30	Jets	-15.81%
31	Titans	-16.01%
32	Giants	-28.63%

The Luckiest Teams

1. Green Bay Packers

The Packers are back at the top of the Luck Rankings after beating the Bears thanks to a last-second field goal and the Chiefs losing to the Bills.

Blocking last-second field goals — as the Chiefs also did last week — is not a sustainable way of relying on wins. So, while this was actually a bit of an unlucky final margin for Green Bay, it was still a close enough game. The Packers lose that game one-third of the time based on the 25-19 Expected Score.

That extra one-third of a win above expectation now puts them north of two wins over expected on the season and 5-2 in one-score games, including 3-1 in games decided by a field goal or less.

That said, this is a team on the rise. The Packers’ Expected Score has outperformed the final score in their last three games, which is why their Luck% has dropped from 31.2%-22.8% during that time frame.

2. Kansas City Chiefs

Kansas City’s 30-21 loss to the Buffalo Bills meant we will not have an undefeated team in the NFL this season.

The Chiefs were a bit unlucky since Expected Scores had this at 24-21 in favor of the Bills, but it was a mostly neutral result in the luck column. Kansas City is a heavy favorite to win its 10th game of the season this week against the 3-7 Carolina Panthers.

3. Pittsburgh Steelers

It feels like it was only a matter of time before Pittsburgh entered the top three.

Last year’s luckiest team has rejoined the upper echelon of the Luck Rankings after a one-score win over the Ravens. The Steelers have now won three games in a row by one score, including their last two wins coming by a combined three points.

Since Russell Wilson took over the starting job, the Steelers have outscored their opponents by a 109-76 margin, but Expected Scores have them winning the battle just 94.7-88.8.

The Unluckiest Teams

30. New York Jets

On the opposite side of the one-score luck is the Jets, who snatched defeat from the jaws of victory by losing 28-27 to the Colts by blowing an eight-point lead in the fourth quarter.

Expected Scores had this as a 20-17 Colts win, but that’s still unlucky as the Jets would win games of that expectation 40% of the time still.

That drops the Jets to 3-8, although they’ve played much closer to a 5-6 record. New York has firmly been unlucky this season with a couple of key bounces going against them over the course of the season.

31. Tennessee Titans

Tennessee remains in the bottom three after a loss to Minnesota in Week 11.

The Titans have now had four multi-score losses in their last five games, with the fifth being a one-score win over the lowly Patriots. During those five games, they’ve been outscored 153-74, but the combined Expected Score is 141.3-88.5. That shows why the Titans remain near the bottom of the Luck Rankings despite some poor results.