NFL Monday Night Football closes Week 11 with the Houston Texans (6-4) and Dallas Cowboys (3-6) facing off at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Tex. Kickoff is scheduled for 8:15 p.m. ET on ESPN.
The spread moved to Texans -7.5 late on Monday afternoon, while the game total is 41 or 41.5, depending on the sportsbook. The Texans are -375 on the moneyline to win at DraftKings, while Dallas is +295 to pull off a shocking upset.
The Cowboys are without Dak Prescott for the rest of the season and on a 4-game losing streak. It doesn’t look like this will be the Cowboys’ season with the Eagles and Commanders running away in the NFC East standings. The Texans are in first place in the AFC South but are coming off a tough loss to the Lions.
We have Texans vs Cowboys predictions on the spread and total, as well as a player prop for Nico Collins. Let’s get into our NFL picks for Monday Night Football.
Texans vs. Cowboys Predictions, Picks
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- Against the Spread Pick: Cowboys +7.5 (-110)
- Over/Under Prediction: Under 41.5 (-105)
- Texans vs. Cowboys Player Prop: Nico Collins Over 74.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
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Texans vs. Cowboys Odds, Spread, Total
Odds via bet365.
- Spread: Texans -7 (-120)
- Over/Under: 41 points (-110 / -110)
- Moneylines: Texans -370 / Cowboys +290
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Texans vs. Cowboys Prediction Against the Spread
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The Texans have struggled to run the ball on early downs this season. If the Cowboys can continue to stifle the Houston rushing attack, it is nearly a certainty they will create pressure on C.J. Stroud, who has been pressured on more than 40% of his dropbacks in four consecutive games.
For all of the faults of the Dallas defense, its ability to get to the passer — ranked fifth in pressure rate — has been steady despite rarely being at full health.
71% of the tickets at the time of writing are bets placed on the Texans, yet the line continues to shift toward Dallas, moving from 7.5 to 7. It is difficult to feel confident backing a team playing poorly, but trends also show there is value on the underdog.
Over the last 20 years, teams coming off a loss of at least 28 points and are underdogs of seven or more points have been profitable. They are 72-55 (56.7%) against the spread (ATS) over the last two decades. Over the last five years, teams in this spot are 14-7 (66.6%) ATS.
The Cowboys offense leaves a lot to be desired, but it is worth noting Cooper Rush is 4-2 ATS as an underdog in his career. I am expecting a better performance from the entire offense against a Texans defense that has allowed 20 or more points in eight straight games.
Pick: Cowboys +7.5 (-110)
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Texans vs. Cowboys Over/Under Pick
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By Billy Ward
At the time of writing, FanDuel has the game total both half a point higher than the rest of the market and with lower juice on the under side of the equation. That makes it a solid starting point.
In two games since losing Dak Prescott, Dallas is averaging just 13.5 points per game — with most of the scoring coming against a bad Falcons defense. The Cowboys have had little to no run game to speak of all season, and without Prescott their passing game is just as bad.
It’s hard to see them getting much going against the Texans’ second-ranked defense by DVOA. In turn, that means Houston won’t have to attack down the stretch, either.
Houston has a negative Pass Rate Over Expectation (PROE) to begin with, so it’ll likely skew to the run heavily if/when it gets a lead. That slows down the game, and thus limits scoring.
The Texans haven’t topped 23 points since they had all three of their top wide receivers active, which makes it hard for this game to go over the total without the Cowboys offense contributing.
Pick: Under 41.5 (-120); Bet to Under 41 (-110)
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Texans vs. Cowboys Player Prop: Nico Collins
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By Kyle Murray
Nico Collins is set to return from a hamstring injury that forced him to miss the last five games. Reports indicate he could’ve played last week, but the Texans instead opted to proceed with caution with their superstar receiver.
That leads me to believe that Collins will be all systems go for this primetime matchup. With no Stefon Diggs and the Texans hitting a bit of a downslide in offensive production over the last few weeks, Collins should be a huge part of the game plan.
He was averaging 113 yards per game prior to the injury and he now gets a matchup against the Cowboys, who have allowed the third-most yards per reception this season.
I bet this at 71.5 last week, so be sure to hop on before the number gets too high.
Pick: Nico Collins Over 74.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
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