Action Network’s Predictive Analytics team crunched the numbers and came up with six NFL predictions for Week 11.
The data-driven NFL picks for Week 11 include props for Amon-Ra St. Brown and Christian McCaffrey, plus a number of long-shot prop bets.
NFL Predictions Week 11
[anchor name=”table”][/anchor]
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
| [teammatchup link=”#1″ firstfullname=”Jacksonville Jaguars” firstlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/jac.png” secondfullname=”Detroit Lions” secondlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/det.png”][/teammatchup] | 1 p.m. | |
| [teammatchup link=”#2″ firstfullname=”Seattle Seahawks” firstlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/sea.png” secondfullname=”San Francisco 49ers” secondlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/sf.png”][/teammatchup] | 4:05 p.m. | |
| [teammatchup link=”#3″ firstfullname=”Seattle Seahawks” firstlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/sea.png” secondfullname=”San Francisco 49ers” secondlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/sf.png”][/teammatchup] | 4:05 p.m. | |
| [teammatchup link=”#4″ firstfullname=”Atlanta Falcons” firstlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/atl.png” secondfullname=”Denver Broncos” secondlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/den.png”][/teammatchup] | 4:05 p.m. | |
| [teammatchup link=”#5″ firstfullname=”Atlanta Falcons” firstlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/atl.png” secondfullname=”Denver Broncos” secondlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/den.png”][/teammatchup] | 4:05 p.m. | |
| [teammatchup link=”#6″ firstfullname=”Houston Texans” firstlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/hou.png” secondfullname=”Dallas Cowboys” secondlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/dal.png”][/teammatchup] | 8:15 p.m. | |
|
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NFL Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game.
|
||
[anchor name=”1″][/anchor]
[subheader sizedown=”false” text=”Billy Ward’s Jaguars vs Lions Anytime TD Bet”][/subheader]
[gameheader haspick=”true” picktext=”Amon-Ra St. Brown Anytime TD (+105)” league=”mlb” awaylogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/jac.png” awayname=”Jacksonville Jaguars” awayslug=”jacksonville-jaguars” homelogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/det.png” homename=”Detroit Lions” homeslug=”detroit-lions” date=”Sunday, Nov. 17″ time=”1 p.m. ET” network=”CBS” bookname=”FanDuel” bookprimarylogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/122955_FanDuelSportsBook@1x.jpg” bookreviewslug=”fanduel”][/gameheader]
By Billy Ward
Sam LaPorta is out, which frees up some additional targets for other Lions pass catchers.
Given the nature of the route trees they run, the biggest beneficiary should be St. Brown. Both players operate over the middle of the field, in a medium aDOT range.
While the Lions being favored by two scores theoretically should tilt them to the run, I wouldn’t be surprised if head coach Dan Campbell let Jared Goff cook following his disappointing Week 10 performance in which he threw five interceptions.
Detroit has thrown for three passing touchdowns in its two big blowouts this season, with the Sun God accounting for one in each of them. He’s also on an eight-game streak of catching a touchdown in every game, and nothing about this matchup suggests it ends here.
Pick: Amon-Ra St. Brown Anytime TD (+105)
[expertpickswidget league=”nfl” gameid=”227496″ date=”20241118″ week=”11″ seasontype=”reg”][/expertpickswidget]
[anchor name=”2″][/anchor]
[subheader sizedown=”false” text=”Billy Ward’s Long-Shot Rushing Yards Bet”][/subheader]
[gameheader haspick=”true” picktext=”Christian McCaffrey Most Rushing Yards on Sunday (+1100)” league=”mlb” awaylogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/sea.png” awayname=”Seattle Seahawks” awayslug=”seattle-seahawks” homelogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/sf.png” homename=”San Francisco 49ers” homeslug=”san-francisco-49ers” date=”Sunday, Nov. 17″ time=”4:05 p.m. ET” network=”FOX” bookname=”FanDuel” bookprimarylogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/122955_FanDuelSportsBook@1x.jpg” bookreviewslug=”fanduel”][/gameheader]
By Billy Ward
McCaffrey saw a full complement of snaps in his Week 10 return (87.5% snap share). That led to just 13 carries — and an average of three yards per carry — in a game that the 49ers trailed through large portions of.
Both of those numbers should improve considerably this week. The 49ers are favored by roughly a touchdown, so the game script should work out for a more run-heavy approach. McCaffrey shouldn’t be as rusty, giving him a shot at more efficient carries.
Most importantly, it’s a way better matchup on the ground. I projected this as the best run-blocking matchup of the Week 11 DFS slate, which should make a big difference.
The players listed ahead of him (Derrick Henry and Jonathan Taylor) both have somewhat tougher blocking matchups, tighter point spreads, and rushing quarterbacks to contend with for carries.
On top of that, FanDuel’s +1100 line is considerably better than the +700 offered at DraftKings and BetMGM, which is a good sign its a value.
Pick: Christian McCaffrey Most Rushing Yards on Sunday (+1100)
[expertpickswidget league=”nfl” gameid=”227501″ date=”20241118″ week=”11″ seasontype=”reg”][/expertpickswidget]
[anchor name=”3″][/anchor]
[subheader sizedown=”false” text=”Nick Giffen’s Seahawks vs 49ers Overtime Pick”][/subheader]
[gameheader haspick=”true” picktext=”Will There Be Overtime? Yes (+1600)” league=”mlb” awaylogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/sea.png” awayname=”Seattle Seahawks” awayslug=”seattle-seahawks” homelogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/sf.png” homename=”San Francisco 49ers” homeslug=”san-francisco-49ers” date=”Sunday, Nov. 17″ time=”4:05 p.m. ET” network=”FOX” bookname=”FanDuel” bookprimarylogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/122955_FanDuelSportsBook@1x.jpg” bookreviewslug=”fanduel”][/gameheader]
By Nick Giffen
There are two potential overtime games that my OT model has value on for Sunday. First is the NFC West clash between Seattle and San Francisco, which falls in the same spread and total range as my Thursday Night Football overtime bet.
San Francisco is a notoriously popular team in my OT model because head coach Kyle Shanahan only goes for two if it’s absolutely necessary, which only increases overtime chances.
On the Seattle side, Jason Myers has made 98 of his last 100 extra-point attempts, so it seems unlikely this game will get on oddball score differentials thanks to a missed extra point on his end.
Pick: Will There Be Overtime? Yes (+1600)
[anchor name=”4″][/anchor]
[subheader sizedown=”false” text=”Nick Giffen’s Falcons vs Broncos Anytime TD Pick”][/subheader]
[gameheader haspick=”true” picktext=”Devaughn Vele Anytime TD (+425)” league=”mlb” awaylogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/atl.png” awayname=”Atlanta Falcons” awayslug=”atlanta-falcons” homelogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/den.png” homename=”Denver Broncos” homeslug=”denver-broncos” date=”Sunday, Nov. 17″ time=”4:05 p.m. ET” network=”FOX” bookname=”BetMGM” bookprimarylogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/779359_BetMGM800x200@1x.png” bookreviewslug=”betmgm”][/gameheader]
By Nick Giffen
Vele is a part of a three-headed hydra that is the Broncos‘ No. 2 receiver spot.
Last week, Vele pushed his way into a 66% snap share at the expense of Tony Franklin; Vele should continue to get playing time over Franklin as the more efficient option and a better fit against the Falcons defense.
Vele has been a zone buster so far, grabbing 1.9 yards per route run (YPRR) or better against each of the four main zone coverage types, including 4.6 YPRR against Cover 6, which the Falcons use at the third-highest rate.
On the flip side, Vele sits at just 17 total receiving yards against man coverage. That’s less of a concern considering Atlanta plays man coverage at the second-lowest rate in the league — just 14% of dropbacks.
Vele is the No. 1 anytime touchdown edge in our Pro Projections, and I’m right there in line with that on my own projections, making his fair value closer to +325 instead of +425.
Pick: Devaughn Vele Anytime TD (+425)
[expertpickswidget league=”nfl” gameid=”227500″ date=”20241118″ week=”11″ seasontype=”reg”][/expertpickswidget]
[anchor name=”5″][/anchor]
[subheader sizedown=”false” text=”Nick Giffen’s Falcons vs Broncos Kicker Prop”][/subheader]
[gameheader haspick=”true” picktext=”Younghoe Koo Over 1.5 Field Goals Made (+100)” league=”mlb” awaylogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/atl.png” awayname=”Atlanta Falcons” awayslug=”atlanta-falcons” homelogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/den.png” homename=”Denver Broncos” homeslug=”denver-broncos” date=”Sunday, Nov. 17″ time=”4:05 p.m. ET” network=”FOX” bookname=”DraftKings ” bookprimarylogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/477013_DraftKings@1x.png” bookreviewslug=”draftkings”][/gameheader]
By Nick Giffen
This is a great buy-low spot on Koo, who missed three field goals last week.
Atlanta has scored 26 TDs in 10 games this year, but expect some of that to shift toward field goals against a stout Broncos D.
The Falcons have faced the 10th easiest opposing defense schedule, while the Broncos rank as the sixth-toughest defense by DVOA. That includes a massive differential in early down success rate defense.
Atlanta’s last six opponents allowed a 48.9% early down success rate (garbage time removed) while Denver’s defense sits at 36.5% over the same time frame.
That 12.4% differential is by far the largest of Week 11, and should put Atlanta in spots where it has to face third and long frequently. In turn, the Falcons will face fourth and long more frequently, negating a lot of opportunity to go for it on fourth down, which they have done at the fourth-highest rate and is partly why their TD scoring is so high.
We’re getting Koo at Coors Field for kickers in a buy-low spot in a great situation. I’m in.
Pick: Younghoe Koo Over 1.5 Field Goals Made (+100)
[anchor name=”6″][/anchor]
[subheader sizedown=”false” text=”Nick Giffen’s Monday Night Football OT Pick”][/subheader]
[gameheader haspick=”true” picktext=”Will There Be Overtime? Yes (+1800)” league=”mlb” awaylogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/hou.png” awayname=”Houston Texans” awayslug=”houston-texans” homelogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/dal.png” homename=”Dallas Cowboys” homeslug=”dallas-cowboys” date=”Sunday, Nov. 17″ time=”8:15 p.m. ET” network=”ESPN” bookname=”FanDuel” bookprimarylogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/122955_FanDuelSportsBook@1x.jpg” bookreviewslug=”fanduel”][/gameheader]
By Nick Giffen
For Texans vs Cowboys, the story is the kickers.
Houston’s Ka’imi Fairbairn and Dallas’ Brandon Aubrey are two well-regarded kickers, especially on extra points where it matters most for overtime. Fairbairn has hit 72-of-73 extra points since 2022.
Aubrey is actually the bigger concern here — he’s made just 93% of his extra points, but at 18-1 odds it’s long enough that we can still take a chance.
Also, I am parlaying the two overtime bets, as you can see in our ParlayExpress profile in the Action App.
Pick: Will There Be Overtime? Yes (+1800)
[expertpickswidget league=”nfl” gameid=”227505″ date=”20241118″ week=”11″ seasontype=”reg”][/expertpickswidget]
_InlineAdBlock