Fading the public and a sneaky over/under angle dominate Week 11 advanced model predictions.
Three PRO Systems flagged five combined NFL spread and over/under picks Sunday and Monday based on the respective situations.
Predictive modeling is an Action PRO special; touchdown picks can back that up.
Here, we’re diving into traditional spread and over/under predictions from our proprietary betting models, which alerted value in Week 11 games like Packers vs. Bears, Ravens vs. Steelers, and Texans vs. Cowboys.
Picks run from the early window Sunday (1 p.m. ET) through Monday Night Football.
NFL Spread, Over/Under Picks: Expert Week 11 Computer Model Predictions
Whether you’re against public betting splits or totally for them, PRO Systems noticed an interesting betting pattern between the tickets we track and the money we log, ultimately producing a 59% fade-the-public trend.
When the public is loading up on a team whose opponent scored less than 10 points the previous week, the team that was held to single digits has bounced back to cover 60% of the time.
The “Bet Against Public After Bad Game” PRO System shows value on the Bears (+5.5 vs. Packers), Jaguars (+14 vs. Lions) and Cowboys (+7.5) in Week 11.
The Bears and Jaguars both play in the early slate Sunday. Both teams were held to single digits last week.
So too were the Cowboys, who play the Texans on Monday Night Football.
All three are being faded by the public, teeing them up for the neat PRO System.
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- Bears +5.5 vs. Packers
- Jaguars +14 vs. Lions
- Cowboys +7.5 vs. Texans
Switching gears to over/under picks, the “Divisional Unders” PRO System works like this: Outdoor divisional games in Week 11 and beyond, with totals set 45 or higher, go under the total better than 59% of the time. Familiarity and cold weather perhaps play roles.
Two games Sunday of Week 11 feature high totals between divisional rivals: Ravens vs. Steelers in the early window Sunday, and Seahawks vs. 49ers in the late-afternoon slate.
- Ravens vs. Steelers — Under 48.5
- Seahawks vs. 49ers — Under 48
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The third PRO System is known as “Dogs After Blowout.”
This strategy focuses on wagering on teams that were defeated by 20 points or more in their previous game and are underdogs by at least +3 in their next matchup. Historically, these teams have covered the spread 57% of the time since records have been kept.
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It’s another recommended bet on the Dallas Cowboys, who match multiple systems in Week 11.
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