Action Network

boston college vs smu-prediction-pick-odds

Boston College vs SMU Prediction, Odds, Picks, How To Watch College Football Saturday

SMU (8-1) was projected to succeed in the ACC, but it is impressive to be undefeated in the conference and ranked 14th in the country.

Even better, they got here while entertaining a quarterback battle at the beginning of the year.

The Mustangs’ victories began to rack up since Kevin Jennings ran away with the job. SMU comes into this matchup on a six-game winning streak, and oddsmakers don’t project them to slow down in this one.

However, the Boston College Eagles (5-4) must be given some credit. They snapped a three-game skid last week by reinventing their offense with Grayson James under center.

Their new scheme is going to be tested against a much more stout group. How will it impact the way we bet on this matchup? Let’s get to my Boston College vs. SMU predictions and college football picks for Saturday, November 16.

SMU is a 19-point favorite on the spread with a 54-point over/under.

Boston College vs SMU Game Information & Odds

[gamematchup league=”ncaaf” awaylogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/ncaaf/100/bc.png” awayname=”Boston College” awayslug=”boston-college-eagles” homelogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/ncaaf/100/smu.png” homename=”SMU” homeslug=”southern-methodist-mustangs” date=”Saturday, Nov. 16″ time=”3:30 p.m. ET” network=”ESPN” col1text=”Spread” col2text=”Total” col3text=”Moneyline” col1awaytext=”+18″ col1awayline=”-110″ col1hometext=”-18″ col1homeline=”-110″ col2awaytext=”53.5″ col2hometext=”53.5″ col2awayline=”-110 / -110″ col2homeline=”-110 / -110″ col3awaytext=”+650″ col3hometext=”-1000″ col3awayline=”” col3homeLine=”” bookname=”bet365″ bookthumbnaillogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/860991_Bet365ALT.png” bookreviewslug=”bet365″][/gamematchup]

  • Boston College vs SMU Point Spread: Boston College +18 (-110) · SMU -18 (-110)
  • Boston College vs SMU Total: Over/Under 53.5
  • Boston College vs SMU Moneyline: Boston College +650 · SMU -1000

_InlineAdBlock

[subheader sizedown=”false” text=”SMU vs Boston College Prediction” center=”true” logo1url=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/ncaaf/100/bc.png” logo2url=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/ncaaf/100/smu.png” link2follow=”true”][/subheader]

  • Boston College vs SMU Pick: Under 54

My SMU vs. Boston College best bet is on the game to stay under the total, with the best line currently available at bet365, according to our live NCAAF odds page.

[subheader sizedown=”false” text=”SMU vs Boston College Betting Insights” center=”true” logo1url=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/ncaaf/100/bc.png” logo2url=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/ncaaf/100/smu.png”][/subheader]

[subheader sizedown=”true” center=”false” text=”Boston College 2024 Key Players” subtext=”” logo1url=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/ncaaf/100/bc.png”][/subheader]

As I mentioned in the open, we will get our second look at the Boston College offense with Grayson James taking snaps. This is confirmed as former starting quarterback Tomas Castellanos entered the transfer portal this week.

Boston College’s offense was rush-heavy with Castellanos as the starter, but it took it to another level against Syracuse. James threw the ball just six times and was efficient, going five for six with a passing touchdown.

They ran the ball 48 times for 321 yards. While that production is staggering, we will unlikely see it even close to being replicated, as the SMU defense has been tremendous against the run this season.

The Mustangs rank 8th in Rush Success Rate allowed and have a significant edge in the trenches against the Eagles. They outrank the Eagles 12 to 88 in Line Yards, meaning there will be minimal push for Boston College up front.

Unless the Eagles put more trust in James’ arm this week, their offense will likely stall out more often.

[subheader sizedown=”true” center=”false” text=”SMU 2024 Key Players” subtext=”” logo1url=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/ncaaf/100/smu.png” link1follow=”false”][/subheader]

Regarding the SMU Mustangs on offense, they have become dynamic with Kevin Jennings under center. Jennings came into the season known as a mobile threat, but his prowess through the air has taken this team to the next level.

He comes into this matchup ranked 40th in QBR while holding a 12 to 5 touchdown to interception ratio. He has been explosive through the air as the Mustangs rank 10th in yards per pass.

However, the meat of this offense is still the ground game, as they run the ball at the 25th-highest rate in the country. Running back Brashard Smith has done damage this year, averaging 6.5 yards per rush while finding paydirt 11 times.

Boston College’s defense is more susceptible through the air, ranking 82nd in Pass Success Rate instead of 31st in Rush Success Rate. However, it will be a battle of attrition against the Mustangs’ run game, and in the end, SMU should also find success on the ground.

Boston College vs SMU Matchup Analysis

Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Boston College and SMU match up statistically:

Boston College Offense vs. SMU Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success 106 8
Line Yards 88 12
Pass Success 70 38
Havoc 80 19
Finishing Drives 37 12
Quality Drives 70 17
SMU Offense vs. Boston College Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success 42 31
Line Yards 81 29
Pass Success 69 82
Havoc 64 74
Finishing Drives 33 59
Quality Drives 39 86
Pace of Play / Other
PFF Tackling 16 65
PFF Coverage 38 40
Special Teams SP+ 131 46
Middle 8 99 14
Seconds per Play 28.8 (106) 25.1 (27)
Rush Rate 65% (10) 60% (25)
Data via CollegeFootballData.com, SP+, Pro Football Focus and SportSource Analytics.

[subheader sizedown=”false” text=”How To Bet My Boston College vs SMU Pick & Prediction” center=”true” logo1url=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/252389_action-logo-check.png”][/subheader]

The market has favored the Mustangs, as the spread has risen five points since opening, but the total has largely remained untouched. With this game likely a blowout, the under is the angle to take here.

Yes, SMU plays fast and should get its fair share of points. However, Boston College will not light up the scoreboard very much here.

We should see the Mustangs shut down their rush-heavy scheme and pull away in this matchup. SMU’s drives will likely be more methodical as they try to establish a ground game.

This combination of factors should lead to this one staying under the total.

Pick: Under 53.5 (-110, bet365)

[expertpickswidget league=”ncaaf” gameid=”227104″ date=”20241116″ week=”” seasontype=””][/expertpickswidget]

[subheader sizedown=”true” text=”Boston College vs SMU Start Time, Channel, Streaming, How To Watch” center=”true”][/subheader]

Location: Gerald J. Ford Stadium, Dallas, TX
Date: Saturday, Nov. 16
Kickoff Time: 3:30 p.m. ET
TV / Streaming: ESPN

Boston College vs SMU will be played at Gerald J. Ford Stadium in Dallas, Texas, on Saturday, Nov. 16 at 3:30 p.m. ET. You can stream the game live on ESPN.

[subheader sizedown=”true” text=”SMU vs Boston College Betting Trends” center=”true”][/subheader]

[bettingtrends gameid=”227104″ date=”20241116″][/bettingtrends]

[subheader sizedown=”true” text=”SMU vs Boston College Weather” center=”true”][/subheader]

[gameforecast league=“ncaaf” gameid=”227104″ date=”2024-11-14”][/gameforecast]

Posted

in

by

Doug Ziefel

Tags:

, , , , ,