Check out the Karine Silva vs. Viviane Araujo odds for UFC 309 on Saturday, November 16, with my betting preview and breakdown.
The UFC 309 main card features a flyweight bout between the No. 9 Viviane Araujo and No. 11 Karine Silva. This matchup is expected to go the distance, and I will be backing the favorite to win by that method.
Here’s my Silva vs. Araujo pick and prediction.
UFC 309: Karine Silva vs. Viviane Araujo Odds
| Silva Odds | -298 |
| Araujo Odds | +240 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (-270 / +200) |
| Location | Madison Square Garden, New York City |
| Bout Time | 10:45 p.m. ET |
| TV/Streaming | ESPN+ |
| UFC 309 odds as of Friday and via DraftKings. Bet on UFC 309 with our DraftKings promo code. | |
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Tony Sartori’s Tale of the Tape
| Araujo | Silva | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 12-6 | 18-4 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 15:32 | 6:41 |
| Height | 5’4″ | 5’5″ |
| Weight (pounds) | 125 lbs. | 125 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 68″ | 67″ |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 11/21/1986 | 12/2/1993 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 4.11 | 2.67 |
| SS Accuracy | 47% | 35% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 4.96 | 3.12 |
| SS Defense | 56% | 49% |
| Take Down Avg | 1.76 | 3.59 |
| TD Acc | 40% | 72% |
| TD Def | 78% | 0% |
| Submission Avg | 0.6 | 2.2 |
Despite having the lower ranking, this fight should be all Silva. She hasn’t lost in over five years, posting nine consecutive victories.
Silva can win in pretty much any area, although she is typically a grappler. She earned a contract to the UFC through a submission victory on Dana White’s Contender Series in 2021, a win that would catapult her career.
Silva went on to win each of her next three fights, all by first-round submission. With this meteoric rise, Silva earned a shot at Ariane da Silva, and did not disappoint.
Karine Silva dominated Ariane da Silva, landing five takedowns on six attempts and coasting to a victory by unanimous decision. Karine Silva is now ranked 11th, and the sky is the limit if we see a similar performance on Saturday, which I believe we will.
Silva vs. Araujo Pick
Araujo should theoretically serve as the perfect opponent for Silva to jump into the top 10. Araujo is a capable veteran, but she is on the back end of her career and has dropped three of her past four fights.
All three of those losses came by decision. In fact, the judges’ input has been needed in each of her past 10 bouts, a trend that dates back to 2019.
She possesses a good chin and has never tapped across 18 professional bouts, which is another reason why Silva’s decision prop is only returning +110. However, I still think that number is too long.
Araujo has stuffed just 50% of her opponents’ takedown attempts over her past five fights, which is a recipe for disaster against someone of Silva’s grappling ability.
Once on the mat, I trust Araujo to fight off submission attempts, but it will be tough to win rounds in that position, which is why I believe this fight will play out similarly to Silva’s latest win over Ariane da Silva.
Tony’s Picks: Karine Silva by Decision (+110 at FanDuel | Play to +105)
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