Our NFL Luck Rankings can be used to bet on unlucky teams that meet one of three criteria:
- A difference of at least 24 places in our weekly NFL Luck Rankings (Luck Difference).
- A Luck% difference (Luck Gap) of at least 50% between two opposing teams at any point in the season.
- A Luck% difference (Luck Gap) of at least 30% between two opposing teams in Week 13 or later.
Unlucky teams meeting at least one of these three criteria are 125-72-6 (63.1%) against the spread (ATS) in regular-season games other than the last week of the season when using closing lines, which are the hardest to beat.
In Week 9, there were two Luck Matchups with the unlucky team going 1-1 ATS. That moves the unlucky team in luck-based matchups to a 12-11-1 (52.1%) record ATS on the season.
The lone Luck Totals in Week 9 was a Luck Unders that ultimately went over its total. That moves Luck Unders to 6-7-0 on the season, while Luck Overs remain a perfect 4-0-0. Combined, Luck Totals have a 10-7-0 (58.8%) record this season.
As a reminder here are the criteria for Luck Totals:
- A Luck Total above +10 after Week 3.
- A Luck Total above +5 after Week 11.
- A Luck Total below -5 after Week 2.
Sides and totals meeting any Luck Ranking criteria are 22-18-1 (54.9%) on the season.
This week, there’s one Luck Matchup and three Luck Totals. Let’s take a look.
NFL Luck Rankings Week 10 Games
Luck Total: -8.9
The Bengals and Ravens met back in Week 5 in a game that produced 79 points compared to just under 59 by Expected Score, and both teams are also coming off games that went over the total Expected Score in Week 9.
That said, my total for this game of 52.5 falls right in between Sean Koerner and Chris Raybon’s early projected total. On a short week in a second meeting between two division rivals, I’m inclined to take the under 53.5, but I don’t see a need to rush it with both tickets and money coming in on the over right now. I’ll wait until closer to game time to decide.
Verdict: Wait on the under
Luck Difference: 28
Luck Gap: 45.0%
The Saints lost to the worst team in the NFL in Week 9 and fired head coach Dennis Allen as a result. Allen had one of the worst all-time records vs. in-game win probability expectation.
That’s also probably why the Saints are at the bottom of the Luck Rankings. With Allen out of the way, there’s likely only room to go but up. That starts this week against the Falcons, who are the third-luckiest team at this point in the season.
Yes, the Saints traded Marshon Lattimore, but that’s one player.
Derek Carr back for his second game after returning from injury should help, and the Saints don’t trail Atlanta by much as far as expected winning percentage using schedule-adjusted Expected Scores. That’s especially true when you consider Spencer Rattler was the Saints’ QB for three of those games. Add in home-field advantage for New Orleans, and Saints +4 looks quite appetizing.
We haven’t seen a sharp move in the Saints direction yet. You could wait for Saints +4.5 with the tickets and money on Atlanta, but I’m fine if you want to take 4 since I have this spread at a field goal. It’s a question of how greedy you want to get with the line. There’s always the chance it moves the wrong way to 3.5, which while it hurts to lose the best number, that’s still worth betting for me.
Verdict: Bet Saints +4 or wait for a possible +4.5 — your call.
Luck Total: -6.1
Last week the Jaguars and Eagles combined for just 16 first-half points. In the second half, the game soared over with 51 total points despite both teams generating sub-40% success rates when adding in all plays (special teams, penalties, etc.). That’s part of why the Expected Score for that game totaled just 41.3 points.
Meanwhile, the Vikings and Colts stayed way under the total on Sunday Night Football, combining for just 34 total points compared to 46.3 by Expected Score and the pregame total closing at 47.
That may mean there isn’t as much recency bias on the Vikings side as we’d like.
While there’s potential for wind, it’s currently still a bit too early to tell if it’ll be enough to impact scoring. I make this game a total of 46, so I’m going to pass unless there’s significant line movement or wind that comes into play.
Verdict: Wait, but likely pass.
Luck Total: -6.7
Like Bengals vs. Ravens, we have another divisional Luck Under, but the two teams haven’t yet met so far this season in this case.
The Eagles were part of that Jaguars game that shot over, while Cowboys vs. Falcons also went over Expected Score but only by three combined points.
This total obviously came crashing down after Dak Prescott‘s injury and now sits at 42. At this point, I’m fine waiting since the money and tickets are coming in on the over.
Verdict: Wait
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