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iowa state cyclones vs kansas jayhawks-prediction-pick-odds-ncaaf-saturday november 9

Iowa State vs. Kansas Prediction, Pick, Spread, NCAAF Betting Guide

The No. 17 Iowa State Cyclones (7-1, 4-1 Big 12) will face the Kansas Jayhawks (2-6, 1-4) at Arrowhead Stadium on Saturday afternoon.

Iowa State has already exceeded expectations this season and can surpass its preseason win total of 7.5 with a win this week.

With that said, its last-second loss to Texas Tech last week was a costly one. Iowa State’s path to the Big 12 Championship game is murkier as it’s now tied with Colorado at 4-1 in the conference. It also now finds itself outside of the top 12 of the initial CFP rankings.

Kansas was also expected to challenge for the Big 12 title this season.

However, its season has gone off the rails, as it enters this week at 2-6 and 1-4 in the conference. The Jayhawks lost a nail-biter to rival Kansas State in their last game and had a bye to prepare for another rival in Iowa State.

Kansas has won the last two meetings in the series, but Iowa State has won 11 of the last 14 meetings and enters as a -3 favorite with an over/under of 50.5.

Continue reading for my Iowa State vs. Kansas predictions and college football picks for Saturday, Nov. 9.

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  • Iowa State vs. Kansas Pick: Iowa State -2

My Kansas vs. Iowa State best bet is for Iowa State to cover the spread. Find the best odds on our live NCAAF odd page.

Iowa State vs. Kansas Odds, Line, Betting Spread

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  • Iowa State vs. Kansas Spread: Iowa State -1.5 · Kansas +1.5
  • Iowa State vs. Kansas Over/Under: 52 Points
  • Iowa State vs. Kansas Moneyline: Iowa State ML -125 · Kansas ML +105

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Iowa State Cyclones Betting Preview

When you look at Iowa State‘s offense this season, one word that comes to mind is balance. The Cyclones achieved that this season, particularly in the running game.

Three Cyclones rushers (Chase Hansen, Abu Sama III, and Jaylon Jackson) are over 300 yards this season with Hansen leading the group with seven touchdowns. He’s tied for the team lead with receiver Jayden Higgins, one of the Cyclones star receivers on the perimeter along with Jaylin Noel, a Kansas City native.

They complement each other well as Noel is the team’s deep threat with a 40-yard reception in six of eight games while Higgins is the bigger target and a real threat in the red zone.

As a duo, they have combined for 98 receptions for 1,428 receiving yards and 10 touchdowns. They have accounted for over 70% of quarterback Rocco Becht‘s passing yards and touchdown passes.

The Cyclones combine a potent offense with a stingy and opportunistic defense. They’re 20th in Finishing Drives and ninth in scoring defense, allowing 15.5 points.

Iowa State ranks third in passing yards allowed per game (146.6), sixth in Coverage grade per PFF, and eighth in Passing Success Rate Allowed. That stingy pass defense has also picked off 14 passes, which is also third-most in the country.

Four Cyclones have picked off multiple passes this season. Sophomore Jontez Williams leads the way with four interceptions, which is fifth-most in the FBS.

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Kansas Jayhawks Betting Preview

The most striking thing about the Jayhawks this season has been the decline in production for quarterback Jalon Daniels.

While he has battled injuries in recent years, he had been one of the most electrifying quarterbacks in the country, most notably in 2022 when he completed 66% of his passes while for accounting 2,400 total yards, 25 touchdowns and four interceptions.

However, this season, Daniels has 11 touchdown passes against nine interceptions and is completing just 57% of his passes. Protecting the ball will be of the upmost importance against this ISU secondary.

Where Kansas can attack Iowa State is on the ground where it will have an advantage in Line Yards and Rushing Success Rate.

The Cyclones are allowing 165 rushing yards per game, and you would think that will lead to a big day for running back Devin Neal. The senior will leave as one of the most productive players in school history and he has 758 yards and eight touchdowns on 5.8 yards per carry this season.

Five of Kansas’ six losses have come by a touchdown or less.

Usually, it has come down to its inability to get enough stops in critical moments. Kansas has allowed at least 29 points in each of its conference losses. It has allowed over 400 yards in each of those games, struggling to defend both the run and the pass.

Kansas ranks 110th in Rushing Success Rate Allowed and 108th in Defensive Line Yards. However, with it also being 71st in Coverage grade, expect Becht and his receivers to have a big day.

Kansas vs Iowa State Matchup Analysis

Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Kansas and Iowa State match up statistically:

Iowa State Offense vs. Kansas Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success 80 110
Line Yards 79 118
Pass Success 52 46
Havoc 29 33
Finishing Drives 60 55
Quality Drives 14 88
Kansas Offense vs. Iowa State Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success 13 78
Line Yards 3 32
Pass Success 27 8
Havoc 32 45
Finishing Drives 2 20
Quality Drives 78 8
Pace of Play / Other
PFF Tackling 119 96
PFF Coverage 6 71
Special Teams SP+ 53 67
Middle 8 65 111
Seconds per Play 27.9 (88) 28.6 (106)
Rush Rate 55% (46) 57% (36)
Data via CollegeFootballData.com, SP+, Pro Football Focus and SportSource Analytics.

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The last two meetings in the series have been decided by 10 points and this year both teams have been involved in several one-score games.

Iowa State is 2-1 in one-score games while Kansas is 0-5 this season. At some point, you’d expect regression to work toward Kansas’ favor, but it will not be this week.

Iowa State has the better defense, is better situationally and is better at protecting the football.

Additionally, Iowa State has won seven of its last eight games away from Ames, including six straight Big 12 road games — and this one won’t even be a true road game with it taking place in Kansas City.

I like the Cyclones to get back on track in this spot.

Pick: Iowa State -2 (Play to -4)

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Kansas vs. Iowa State Channel, Streaming, How to Watch, Start Time

Location: Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, MO
Date: Saturday, Nov. 9
Kickoff Time: 3:30 p.m. ET
TV / Streaming: FS1

Iowa State heads south to Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City on Saturday to face Kansas at 3:30 p.m. ET on FS1.

Iowa State vs. Kansas Betting Trends

  • 88% of bets and 93% of the money are on Iowa State to cover the spread
  • 79% of bets and 46% of the money on the moneyline are on Iowa State to win outright
  • 89% of bets and 55% of the money are on the over

Betting trends via our live, updating NCAAF public betting & money percentages page.

Iowa State vs. Kansas Weather

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