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BYU vs. Utah Prediction, Picks, Spread, How to Watch NCAAF Week 11

The Holy War has returned to college football, this time as a conference game.

The BYU Cougars (8-0, 5-0 Big 12) head to Salt Lake City on Saturday night to take on the Utah Utes (4-4, 1-4) in a Big 12 battle. Kickoff is set for 10:15 p.m. ET on ESPN.

The stakes could not be higher heading into the Big 12 showdown, as BYU carries an undefeated conference record and a chance of making the College Football Playoff.

The season has played out differently for Utah, which finds itself on a 4-game losing streak.

BYU enters Rice-Eccles Stadium as a -3.5 favorite with an over/under set just above the key number of 41. So, where does the betting value lie?

Let’s dive into my BYU vs. Utah predictions and college football picks for Saturday, Nov. 9.

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  • BYU vs. Utah Pick: Utah +3.5

My Utah vs. BYU best bet is on the Utes to cover the spread, with the best line currently available at DraftKings, according to our live NCAAF odds page.

BYU vs. Utah Odds, Betting Line, Spread

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  • BYU vs Utah Spread: BYU -3, Utah +3
  • BYU vs Utah Over/Under: 41 Total Points
  • BYU vs Utah Moneyline: BYU ML -160, Utah ML +135

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BYU Cougars Betting Preview

The BYU administration stood by head coach Kilani Sitake after a severe fall from expectations in 2023. The Cougars won 21 games during the 2020 and 2021 seasons, with a minor dip to 8-5 and a New Mexico Bowl win in 2022. However, BYU failed to make a bowl in 2023 after a tumultuous season in the first year with defensive coordinator Jay Hill.

The coordinator position on the other side of the ball also underwent a change, as Jeff Grimes left for the same role with Kansas.

Long-term offensive staff member Aaron Roderick was promoted to coordinator, thrusting BYU into a top-25 team in creating quality drives.

There’s noise in the numbers for quarterback Jake Retzlaff outside of 18 passing touchdowns this season. The second-year quarterback has struggled in pressured dropbacks, committing seven turnover-worthy plays and no big-time throws.

BYU ranks 102nd in creating uncontested catches on Retzlaff’s attempts.

Another component of the methodical offense comes in the ground attack led by LJ Martin. Roderick calls zone-read concepts exclusively, with a minimal pivot to counter and power run.

The Cougars defense has been elite against the pass, ranking 12th in Opponent Success Rate. The secondary pivots between Cover 1 and Cover 3, posting a rank of second nationally in creating contested catches.

The biggest contributor has been lockdown cornerback Marque Collins, who has posted six pass breakups while allowing only half of 36 targets to be caught.

The back of the nickel defense has carried the water this season, as the pass rush ranks outside the top 100. Opponents can also find success on the ground. BYU sits outside the top 100 in opponent rush explosives and broken tackles allowed.

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Utah Utes Betting Preview

Utah has been on the struggle bus since late September.

Head coach Kyle Whittingham started the season with four consecutive victories, serving as a heavy favorite to win the Big 12.

However, key injuries and quarterback inefficiency have led to a four-game losing streak against conference teams that are on track to finish at the bottom of the conference.

Isaac Wilson, the brother of former BYU quarterback Zach Wilson, took over as starter at quarterback in Week 3 against Utah State.

The results have been tepid, posting nearly double the number of turnover-worthy plays as big-time throws.

Whittingham recently revealed that the quarterback has been dealing with an injury the entire season. If the bye week didn’t provide enough of a health boost to Wilson, third-string freshman Brandon Rose will start in his second-ever game.

While the offense has struggled to gain any traction, the defense has kept games close over the past month. Utah has three consecutive losses within one possession, allowing an average of just 20 points over the past four games.

The Utes are elite against the rush, stopping opponents from putting together methodical drives and scoring points in the extended red zone.

The pass defense ranks top-40 in Opponent Success Rate and coverage grading, per PFF.

If there’s an area Utah could improve, it’s in pass rush and tackles for loss, where the Utes rank outside the top 50.

Utah vs. BYU Matchup Analysis

Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Utah and BYU match up statistically:

BYU Offense vs. Utah Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success 50 7
Line Yards 54 11
Pass Success 56 28
Havoc 47 57
Finishing Drives 43 6
Quality Drives 25 10
Utah Offense vs. BYU Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success 97 84
Line Yards 91 87
Pass Success 123 12
Havoc 100 58
Finishing Drives 121 75
Quality Drives 92 42
Pace of Play / Other
PFF Tackling 68 125
PFF Coverage 48 40
Special Teams SP+ 23 96
Middle 8 8 61
Seconds per Play 29.5 (116) 29.7 (119)
Rush Rate 55% (49) 52% (76)
Data via CollegeFootballData.com, SP+, Pro Football Focus and SportSource Analytics.

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The easy handicap in this game comes when the BYU offense takes the field.

Martin has failed to create any elusiveness as a runner with just 16 missed tackles forced and only three yards after first contact. The Utes rank top-10 in both Stuff Rate and third-down defense, putting much of BYU’s hopes on the arm of Retzlaff.

Retzlaff has created mistakes in the passing game this season, escaping Oklahoma State and Baylor with victory.

That dynamic could quickly turn into takeaways for Utah, as defensive coordinator Morgan Scalley has helped the Utes become the best team in the country in creating contested catches.

With pass explosives expected to be few and far between for the Cougars, BYU could see limited scoring opportunities.

The handicap becomes less clear when Utah has the ball, especially with interim offensive coordinator Mike Bajakian leading the way. The journeyman coach has failed to produce offensive numbers above the talent level in previous stops at Northwestern, Boston College and Tennessee.

With Cam Rising done for the season, the bye week served as a chance for Wilson and Rose to run a playbook tailored to their personal skill set under Bajakian.

There are two notables from the Utah press conferences over the past two weeks.

First, Whittingham discussed the need for Wilson to get rid of the ball faster. An average time to throw of 2.9 seconds is well above the desired mark of 2.5 for quarterbacks.

That pairs well with Bajakian’s desire for an uptempo offense, an element that failed at his previous stops. While an over is mathematically in play, the element of surprise from the Utah offense could generate as many three-and-outs as uptempo scores.

Our Action Network Betting Power Ratings call for BYU to be a favorite of just two points — below the current market offering.

Everything is on the table for the Utah offense, from an uptempo counter run game to Whittingham converting a defensive player like Sione Vaki.

BYU will struggle in a hostile environment in both the running and passing games. With Utah’s defense ranking as the best nationally in contested catches, the Cougars could be in for regression from their net turnover margin of +7.

Pick: Utah +3.5 or Better

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BYU vs. Utah Channel, How to Watch, Start Time, Streaming

Location: Rice-Eccles Stadium, Salt Lake City, UT
Date: Saturday, Nov. 9
Kickoff Time: 10:15 p.m. ET
TV / Streaming: ESPN

BYU heads north to take on Utah on Saturday, Nov. 9 at 10:15 p.m. ET on ESPN.

BYU vs. Utah Betting Trends

  • 92% of bets and 99% of the money on the moneyline are on BYU to win outright
  • 86% of bets and 88% of the money are on the over

Betting trends via our live, updating NCAAF public betting & money percentages page.

BYU vs. Utah Weather

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