We got back to the winning ways going 3-1 in Week 8 while Tee Higgins didn’t end up playing on the fifth prop bet I gave out.
That moves me to 18-7 on the season for my weekend prop piece.
For Week 9, I’m looking at Nick Chubb, Tyrone Tracy, Khalil Shakir, Dak Prescott and others for my player props. As always, be sure to check in throughout the weekend as I add more to my player props betting card.
Dr. Nick’s NFL Week 9 Player Prop Picks
- RB Nick Chubb Over 1.5 Receptions (+125 at bet365)
- RB Tyrone Tracy Under 2.5 Receptions (-120 at FanDuel)
- WR Khalil Shakir Longest Reception Under 20.5 Yards (-110 at BetMGM)
- QB Dak Prescott Under 0.5 Interceptions Thrown (+115 at BetMGM)
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Browns RB Nick Chubb has worked his way back from injury and now plays his third game of the year. His snap count increased from 36% of the team’s snaps to 61% and should remain at or above 50% most weeks going forward. Jerome Ford is also dealing with a hamstring issue that, while unlikely to keep him out, could potentially linger and bother him in game, limiting his snaps.
The matchup is solid here as well, as the Chargers play two-high coverage at a top-five rate while playing zone defense at the highest rate. Both of those tend to lead to more dump-offs to RBs, which is why the Chargers have allowed the sixth-most receptions per game to the position.
Chubb is also in line for some positive catch regression, hauling in just one of five targets in his two games. For his career, his catch rate is nearly 75%, so he’s sitting 55% below his long-term catch rate.
I have Chubb projected for 1.7 receptions on 2.3 targets, making him a coinflip to clear this, so anything +120 or longer gives us some nice wiggle room of value to the fair odds of +100.
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This is a brutal spot for Tracy, who has several factors going against him here.
First is the matchup, where the Washington Commanders allow the second-fewest targets, receptions, and yards per game to RBs.
Second is the fact that the Giants are the unlucky team in our Action Network Luck Rankings, and that could give them a more run-heavy game script against a run-heavy team that possesses the ball nearly three minutes more per game than the average team the Giants have faced this year.
Third would be any potential usage worries coming off a neck injury and then a concussion sustained on Monday Night Football in a bit of a short week.
Add it all up, and I like his under 2.5 receptions and would play this closer to -150.
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Shakir lines up in the slot north of 70% of the time, which should allow him to see plenty of Jalen Ramsey, who should play as the Dolphins‘ nickel back quite a bit here with Kader Kohou out for the second straight week.
Miami plays Cover 2 around 19% of the time, while Shakir has faced Cover 2 on just 8% of his routes this year. That’s particularly problematic because Shakir has been targeted just once against the coverage. Against all other coverages, Shakir has an average depth of target (aDOT) of just 3.2 yards.
The Dolphins also allow the ninth-fewest yards after the catch on short passes, so it’s going to be a struggle for Shakir to hit 20 yards on a given catch.
Yes, he did have a long of 21 yards in the teams’ first meeting back in Week 2, but that came on a perfect 5 for 5 receiving day where he had 1.4 catches over expectation. We’d expect some catch regression in a repeat spot with a tougher defender on him.
I’m not too worried if Amari Cooper ends up ruled out, as that means Shakir may have Jalen Ramsey on him for an even higher percentage of snaps.
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You can almost rinse-repeat my writeup from last week when I took Baker Mayfield under 0.5 interceptions against this very Falcons defense.
That obviously didn’t work out, as Mayfield threw two picks. However, those two picks were his only two turnover-worthy plays (TWPs), giving the Falcons defense an even more unsustainable seven INTs on eight TWPs.
Yes, Prescott has been absolutely horrible this year in the TWP department, leading the league with 16. That said, his 5.1% TWP rate is unsustainable, especially considering he’s averaged just 3.1% in the last three years.
If there’s ever a spot for regression, it’s against a defense with an unsustainably high INT rate that forces a below-average TWP rate.
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