Action Network’s Predictive Analytics team crunched the numbers and came up with eight NFL predictions for Week 9.
The data-driven NFL picks for Week 9 include include anytime touchdown scorer predictions and a number of long-shot prop bets that include overtime, highest scoring game and more.
NFL Predictions Week 9
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| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
| [teammatchup link=”#1″ firstfullname=”New Orleans Saints” firstlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/no.png” secondfullname=”Carolina Panthers” secondlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/car.png”][/teammatchup] | 1 p.m. | |
| [teammatchup link=”#2″ firstfullname=”Los Angeles Chargers” firstlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/sd.png” secondfullname=”Cleveland Browns” secondlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/cle.png”][/teammatchup] | 1 p.m. | |
| [teammatchup link=”#3″ firstfullname=”Los Angeles Chargers” firstlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/sd.png” secondfullname=”Cleveland Browns” secondlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/cle.png”][/teammatchup] | 1 p.m. | |
| [teammatchup link=”#4″ firstfullname=”Dallas Cowboys” firstlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/dal.png” secondfullname=”Atlanta Falcons” secondlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/atl.png”][/teammatchup] | 1 p.m. | |
| [teammatchup link=”#5″ firstfullname=”Miami Dolphins” firstlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/mia.png” secondfullname=”Buffalo Bills” secondlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/buf.png”][/teammatchup] | 1 p.m. | |
| [teammatchup link=”#6″ firstfullname=”Detroit Lions” firstlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/det.png” secondfullname=”Green Bay Packers” secondlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/gb.png”][/teammatchup] | 4:25 p.m. | |
| [teammatchup link=”#7″ firstfullname=”Los Angeles Rams” firstlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/la.png” secondfullname=”Seattle Seahawks” secondlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/sea.png”][/teammatchup] | 4:25 p.m. | |
| [teammatchup link=”#8″ firstfullname=”Indianapolis Colts” firstlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/ind.png” secondfullname=”Minnesota Vikings” secondlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/min.png”][/teammatchup] | 8:20 p.m. | |
|
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NFL Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game.
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[subheader sizedown=”false” text=”Billy Ward’s Saints vs Panthers Anytime Touchdown Bet”][/subheader]
[gameheader haspick=”true” picktext=”Taysom Hill Anytime Touchdown (+185)” league=”mlb” awaylogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/no.png” awayname=”New Orleans Saints” awayslug=”new-orleans-saints” homelogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/car.png” homename=”Carolina Panthers” homeslug=”carolina-panthers” date=”Sunday, Nov. 3″ time=”1 p.m. ET” network=”CBS” bookname=”BetMGM” bookprimarylogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/779359_BetMGM800x200@1x.png” bookreviewslug=”betmgm”][/gameheader]
By Billy Ward
As any fantasy/DFS player could tell you, predicting “Taysom Hill games” is a frustrating experience. Sometimes he’s not used at all, sometimes he vultures multiple touchdowns as a passer, rusher and/or receiver.
This week looks to be as good a spot as any for Hill to have his occasional blow up. The Panthers are the easiest team in the NFL to run on, and have allowed plenty of production to backup running backs – thanks to the frequent blowout losses they suffer leading to starters getting a rest.
Hill could effectively be the Saints’ No. 2 running back this week, with Kendre Miller out and Jamaal Williams doubtful. If the heavily favored Saints get out to a lead, it would make sense to rest Alvin Kamara a bit, leaving Hill to shoulder a heavy load.
That gives us a solid combination of projectable workload and efficiency, plus a rock-solid goal-line role. Betting on Hill’s yardage or attempts over is also an option, but the juicy multi-touchdown line is more fun.
Pick: Taysom Hill Anytime Touchdown (+185); 2+ TDs (+1400; Caesars Sportsbook)
[expertpickswidget league=”nfl” gameid=”227468″ date=”20241103″ week=”” seasontype=””][/expertpickswidget]
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[subheader sizedown=”false” text=”Billy Ward’s Chargers vs Browns Prop Bet”][/subheader]
[gameheader haspick=”true” picktext=”Elijah Moore Receptions Ladder (-130 to +492)” league=”mlb” awaylogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/sd.png” awayname=”Los Angeles Chargers” awayslug=”los-angeles-chargers” homelogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/cle.png” homename=”Cleveland Browns” homeslug=”cleveland-browns” date=”Sunday, Nov. 3″ time=”1 p.m. ET” network=”CBS” bookname=”FanDuel” bookprimarylogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/122955_FanDuelSportsBook@1x.jpg” bookreviewslug=”fanduel”][/gameheader]
By Billy Ward
Cedric Tillman is getting all the buzz in the new-look Browns passing attack. Including in this space, where we came just a yard short of hitting his full receiving ladder last week.
However, the leading receiver in terms of usage for the Browns was actually Moore, who drew 12 targets and caught eight passes last week. His average depth of target (aDOT) was less than half of Tillman’s – but that’s a good thing this week.
Cleveland is facing a tough Chargers pass rush, and won’t have the luxury of letting plays develop down field. That means quick throws to Moore, whose aDOT was also lower than tight ends David Njoku and Jordan Akins.
Cleveland likely won’t attempt 41 passes again this week, but if it hits 75% of that number with a similar target distribution, we cash the first three rungs of the ladder.
There’s a case that the distribution shifts more toward Moore, giving us a shot at the final piece as well.
Pick: Elijah Moore Receptions Ladder (-130 to +492)
- 4+ -130 (.65 units)
- 5+ +154 (.2u)
- 6+ +280 (.1u)
- 7+ +492 (.05u)
[expertpickswidget league=”nfl” gameid=”227471″ date=”20241103″ week=”” seasontype=””][/expertpickswidget]
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[subheader sizedown=”false” text=”Nick Giffen’s Chargers vs Browns Kicker Prop”][/subheader]
[gameheader haspick=”true” picktext=”Dustin Hopkins Over 1.5 Field Goals Made (+100)” league=”mlb” awaylogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/sd.png” awayname=”Los Angeles Chargers” awayslug=”los-angeles-chargers” homelogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/cle.png” homename=”Cleveland Browns” homeslug=”cleveland-browns” date=”Sunday, Nov. 3″ time=”1 p.m. ET” network=”CBS” bookname=”ESPN BET” bookprimarylogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/11/ESPNBET-rect-2colorway-e1700601975338.png” bookreviewslug=”espn-bet”][/gameheader]
By Nick Giffen
The Cleveland Browns have been pretty aggressive going for it on fourth down, yet Hopkins has still averaged two FG attempts per game.
Now the Browns are in a spot where they could find themselves in FG range more often thanks to Jameis Winston being a potential upgrade over DeShaun Watson, or at least giving them more explosive-play potential with deeper shots downfield.
When the Browns do find themselves in field-goal range, it’s also less likely they’ll go for it on fourth down thanks to the matchup.
Cleveland has faced the seventh-easiest schedule when it comes to opposing defense’s early down success rate allowed (with garbage time removed). However, the Chargers are the second-toughest defense by this metric, giving Cleveland a massive downgrade and putting them in more third-and-long situations.
If that’s the case, the Browns’ seventh-highest go-for-it rate is going to take a hit as the fourth-down yardage will be too long more frequently, giving Hopkins more FG attempt chances.
The Chargers allow 1.86 FGA/gm against, so this is definitely a spot where I like taking the over at even money.
Pick: Dustin Hopkins Over 1.5 Field Goals Made (+100)
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[subheader sizedown=”false” text=”Nick Giffen’s Cowboys vs Falcons Overtime Bet”][/subheader]
[gameheader haspick=”true” picktext=”Will There Be Overtime? Yes (+1400)” league=”mlb” awaylogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/dal.png” awayname=”Dallas Cowboys” awayslug=”dallas-cowboys” homelogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/atl.png” homename=”Atlanta Falcons” homeslug=”atlanta-falcons” date=”Sunday, Nov. 3″ time=”1 p.m. ET” network=”FOX” bookname=”FanDuel” bookprimarylogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/122955_FanDuelSportsBook@1x.jpg” bookreviewslug=”fanduel”][/gameheader]
By Nick Giffen
My model has +1050 as fair value and +1130 as upper confidence interval estimate
Two great kickers playing indoors will keep this on key differences like 3 and 7. Plus, we have two offenses that can move the ball and two relatively poor defenses. That allows comebacks from multiple scores down to happen at a greater frequency, which enhances OT odds.
Pick: Will There Be Overtime? Yes (+1400)
[expertpickswidget league=”nfl” gameid=”227469″ date=”20241103″ week=”” seasontype=””][/expertpickswidget]
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[subheader sizedown=”false” text=”Nick Giffen’s Dolphins vs Bills Overtime Bet”][/subheader]
[gameheader haspick=”true” picktext=”Will There Be Overtime? Yes (+1500)” league=”mlb” awaylogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/mia.png” awayname=”Miami Dolphins” awayslug=”miami-dolphins” homelogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/buf.png” homename=”Buffalo Bills” homeslug=”buffalo-bills” date=”Sunday, Nov. 3″ time=”1 p.m. ET” network=”CBS” bookname=”FanDuel” bookprimarylogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/122955_FanDuelSportsBook@1x.jpg” bookreviewslug=”fanduel”][/gameheader]
By Nick Giffen
Model has +1150 as fair value and +1205 as upper confidence interval estimate.
The Dolphins are the unlucky team in the game with the highest scoring luck gap of Week 9 (35.9%), meaning this game could be closer than the spread suggests, making OT more likely.
Pick: Will There Be Overtime? Yes (+1500)
[expertpickswidget league=”nfl” gameid=”227470″ date=”20241103″ week=”” seasontype=””][/expertpickswidget]
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[subheader sizedown=”false” text=”Billy Ward’s Lions vs Packers Long-Shot Prop”][/subheader]
[gameheader haspick=”true” picktext=”Highest Scoring Game (+850)” league=”mlb” awaylogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/det.png” awayname=”Detroit Lions” awayslug=”detroit-lions” homelogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/gb.png” homename=”Green Bay Packers” homeslug=”green-bay-packers” date=”Sunday, Nov. 3″ time=”4:25 p.m. ET” network=”FOX” bookname=”FanDuel” bookprimarylogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/122955_FanDuelSportsBook@1x.jpg” bookreviewslug=”fanduel”][/gameheader]
By Billy Ward
Lions–Packers is nearly five points off the highest total on the slate, with a current line of 47.5. It’s moved down a bit from 49 total points at open despite the increasingly likely odds that Packers quarterback Jordan Love plays.
That downward pressure is largely due to the weather, which is predicted to be wet and somewhat windy. However, according to the WeatherEdge tool from our friends at RotoGrinders, similar conditions only reduce scoring by 1%.
The effect should be even smaller for a team with a dominant run game like the Lions since rushing yards go up 15% in these conditions.
Both teams are banged up defensively, with Green Bay missing two starters from its defensive backfield, and Detroit without both starting defensive ends and a starting linebacker.
Three of the last four Lions games have topped 60 points, with only the 47-9 drubbing of the Cowboys as an exception. Green Bay won’t go down that easy, giving this massive shootout potential.
Pick: Highest Scoring Game (+850)
[expertpickswidget league=”nfl” gameid=”227476″ date=”20241103″ week=”” seasontype=””][/expertpickswidget]
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[subheader sizedown=”false” text=”Nick Giffen’s Rams vs Seahawks Anytime Touchdown Bet”][/subheader]
[gameheader haspick=”true” picktext=”Jake Bobo Anytime TD (+450)” league=”mlb” awaylogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/la.png” awayname=”Los Angeles Rams” awayslug=”los-angeles-rams” homelogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/sea.png” homename=”Seattle Seahawks” homeslug=”seattle-seahawks” date=”Sunday, Nov. 3″ time=”4:25 p.m. ET” network=”FOX” bookname=”BetMGM” bookprimarylogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/779359_BetMGM800x200@1x.png” bookreviewslug=”betmgm”][/gameheader]
By Nick Giffen
With DK Metcalf out for another week, Jake Bobo is the third WR in a Seahawks offense that can support three receivers.
Last week, Bobo ran a route on 26 of Geno Smith’s 32 dropbacks. He only had one target, which is probably causing his odds to be longer than they should be.
That game was against the Bills. who allow the seventh-fewest targets per game to the WR position. It was also played in rainy and windy conditions, which is what likely led Smith to target his RBs a combined nine times.
While the Rams have allowed even fewer targets per game than Buffalo does to WRs, some of that stems from the fact that they have trailed more, meaning teams run against them more. But here the Rams are actually favored.
L.A. is quite inefficient against the position, which contributes to them allowing the fifth-most TDs per game to wideouts.
I’m expecting Bobo to run north of 25 routes again, possibly even into the 30s as Seattle likely passes more than it did last week thanks to improved weather conditions and a Rams offense that plays at a quicker pace than Buffalo.
Pick: Jake Bobo Anytime TD (+450)
[expertpickswidget league=”nfl” gameid=”227475″ date=”20241103″ week=”” seasontype=””][/expertpickswidget]
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[subheader sizedown=”false” text=”Nick Giffen’s Colts vs Vikings Overtime Bet”][/subheader]
[gameheader haspick=”true” picktext=”Will There Be Overtime? Yes (+1500)” league=”mlb” awaylogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/ind.png” awayname=”Indianapolis Colts” awayslug=”indianapolis-colts” homelogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/min.png” homename=”Minnesota Vikings” homeslug=”minnesota-vikings” date=”Sunday, Nov. 3″ time=”8:20 p.m. ET” network=”NBC” bookname=”FanDuel” bookprimarylogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/122955_FanDuelSportsBook@1x.jpg” bookreviewslug=”fanduel”][/gameheader]
By Nick Giffen
Model has +1355 as fair value and +1425 as upper confidence interval estimate.
Two solid kickers indoors. I personally have Vikings K Will Reichard pegged as the future greatest kicker of all time. Colts K Matt Gay has made 161 of 164 XP attempts (98.2%) while kicking for teams that play their home games indoors.
Both teams go for two at very low rates. That’ll keep this game on key differences like 3 and 7.
Round Robin for all three OT bets: 239-1, 239-1, and 255-1
Three Leg parlay: 3839-1
Pick: Will There Be Overtime? Yes (+1500)
[expertpickswidget league=”nfl” gameid=”227472″ date=”20241103″ week=”” seasontype=””][/expertpickswidget]