The Houston Texans face the New York Jets in a Thursday Night Football clash between two AFC teams headed in opposite directions.
My top player prop for this one features a bet that regular followers of my content might be familiar with and it’s a pick for Jets receiver Mike Williams.
Let’s dive in.
[gameheader haspick=”true” picktext=”Mike Williams Longest Reception Over 14.5 Yards (-120)” league=”nfl” awaylogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/hou.png” awayname=”Houston Texans” awayslug=”houston-texans” homelogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/nyj.png” homename=”New York Jets” homeslug=”new-york-jets” date=”Thursday, Oct. 31″ time=”8:15 p.m. ET” network=”Prime Video” bookname=”DraftKings” bookprimarylogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/477013_DraftKings@1x.png” bookreviewslug=”draftkings”][/gameheader]
I took Mike Williams Over 16.5 yards for his longest reception in Week 4, then backed his under in this same market in Week 6 and won both bets. I’m going back to the old trusty well here and will take Williams to clear an even lower bar — just 14.5 yards.
Like Week 4, we have a somewhat similar spot where the Jets’ opponent, then Denver but now Houston, generates pressure at a high rate. The Texans rank fourth in pressure rate, which is even better than the Broncos have been this season.
Rodgers’ throws deeper when pressured, which helps Williams, who has been targeted an average of 14.6 yards downfield, and his median (16 yards, which clears this prop) has been even longer. If that remains his true long-term target depth, that means he should be favored to clear this number on any given catch.
[expertpickswidget league=”nfl” gameid=”227464″ date=”20241031″ week=”” seasontype=””][/expertpickswidget]
Given that Williams’ receptions line sits at 1.5 with heavy juice to the over, we can feel good about his chances of catching multiple passes, giving us an even better chance of clearing this number. That jives with our Action PRO player prop projections, which currently project Williams for 1.9 catches. I make it even higher, with a projection right at about two catches on average.
Even better, Houston allows the longest average depth of target, making it even more likely that Williams’ receptions come down the field.
You may point out there is a key difference from that Week 4 matchup in that Davante Adams is now on the Jets, but Allen Lazard was heavily targeted in that Week 4 matchup (eight targets) and Williams still cleared this line. So, the Adams for Lazard swap (since Lazard is out) ends up being a wash when we look back at that Week 4 game.
Per Fantasy Points data, Williams also has a positive coverage matchup, rating 8.3% better for him than the coverage types he’s faced so far this year.
While the Jets are the unlucky team in our Luck Rankings, I gave reasons why I’m not totally sold on them covering the spread as 1.5 or 2-point favorites. For simple reasons, I think Houston is the better team. Personally, I think there’s a better chance than not that Houston covers, which gives a higher chance the Jets end up in a passing game script.
Using the 1.9 reception projection and a 50-50 shot of clearing 14.5 yards on any given catch, Williams would be north of 61% to clear 14.5 yards.
_InlineAdBlockRestart