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Indiana vs Michigan State Odds, Picks, Predictions, Game Preview, How To Watch Today — 11/2

As we enter November, Big Ten play is heating up, and two coaches in their debut seasons will meet up in East Lansing.

Indiana looks to continue its undefeated run with a big road victory. Indiana enters this game with an 8-0 record and a 7-1 record against the spread. The Hoosiers have gone over in six games.

Michigan State hopes to recover from a heartbreaking loss against its rival, Michigan. Michigan State enters this weekend with a 4-4 record and a matching 4-4 record against the spread. They have gone over in their last two games but have gone under five times this year.

There will be some light wind, but nothing in the weather forecast should meaningfully impact the game. Temperatures will be in the mid-50s, and no rain is expected.

The game kicks off at 3:30 p.m. ET and can be streamed live on Peacock. Indiana is a 7.5-point favorite with a 51.5-point over/under.

Read on for our Indiana vs Michigan State predictions and college football picks for this NCAAF Week 10 matchup.

Indiana vs Michigan State Odds

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  • Indiana vs Michigan State Point Spread: Indiana -7.5 (-110) · Michigan State +7.5 (-110)
  • Indiana vs Michigan State Total: Over/Under 53.5
  • Indiana vs Michigan State Moneyline: Indiana -320 · Michigan State +260

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Prediction

My Indiana vs Michigan State best bet is on the Hoosiers to cover as 7.5-point favorites.

Moneyline

PASS

Against the Spread

Indiana -7.5

Over/Under

PASS

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Why Indiana Could Win: Coach Of The Year

Curt Cignetti should be the runaway Coach of the Year with his team’s success this season.

The offense is among the nation’s best, averaging 46.5 points per game and 7.2 yards per play, which ranks in the top 10 nationally. The Hoosiers have posted a 55.6% Success Rate and 5.05 Points per Opportunity.

As of Wednesday evening, Kurtis Rourke is trending towards being available. And as the centerpiece of a super dynamic offense, that’s a huge win for Indiana.

Rourke is completing 74.6% of his passes for an average of 10.7 yards per pass attempt. He’s thrown 15 touchdowns and just three interceptions.  As a team, Indiana averages 27.6 pass attempts per game and 287 yards per game with a 61.1% Pass Success Rate.

Three backs have more than 150 rushing yards, but Justice Ellison and Ty Son Lawton have been utilized as the primary pieces of the running game. They’ve averaged 6.2 and 4.9 yards per carry, respectively. As a team, Indiana averages 6.5 10-plus yard runs per game with a 51.6% Rush Success Rate.

The defense has nearly matched the success of the offensive. They allow just 14 points per game and 4.5 yards per play. They allow a 35.9% Success Rate and an average of 3.53 Points per Opportunity. They’re among the best in the nation at limiting explosive plays while also generating havoc on 20.3% of plays.

Why Michigan State Could Win: Much Improved Defense

Following a 4-8 season and the end of the Mel Tucker era, Michigan State fans have welcomed the start of the Jonathan Smith tenure in East Lansing.

With four regular-season games remaining, the Spartans have already matched their season win total from 2023. They average 21.0 points per game and 5.9 yards per play. They’ve posted a 44.3% Success Rate and have scored 3.09 Points per Opportunity.

After a rocky start to the season, Aiden Chiles has settled into his role as the leader of the Michigan State offense. He’s completing 61% of his passes for an average of 8.1 yards per pass attempt. He remains somewhat reckless with the ball, with nine interceptions compared to seven touchdowns, but he’s shown flashes of the potential that the team expected when bringing him in from the transfer portal.

The team has averaged 3.5 20-plus yard passes per game with a 41.5% Pass Success rate.

True freshman Nick March hasn’t replicated his success from the Maryland game earlier in the year. Still, he remains the most explosive receiver on the team with a 17-yard-per-reception average and stresses opposing defenses.

It’s a two-back system in East Lansing with Kay’ron Adams and Nate Carter. The two have combined for 871 rushing yards and five touchdowns on 178 rushes. Both have also contributed as receivers.

As a team, Michigan State boasts a 46.9% Rush Success rate behind an offensive line that generates 2.925 Line Yards per attempt.

The Spartans’ defense has improved markedly this season, and they need to play their best game in this matchup. They allow just 21.2 points per game and 5.2 yards per play. Opponents have a 38.8% Success Rate with 3.37 Points per Opportunity.

Indiana vs Michigan State Matchup Analysis

Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Indiana and Michigan State match up statistically:

Indiana Offense vs. Michigan State Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success 7 18
Line Yards 42 32
Pass Success 1 101
Havoc 4 106
Finishing Drives 4 39
Quality Drives 7 61
Michigan State Offense vs. Indiana Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success 44 16
Line Yards 91 16
Pass Success 74 15
Havoc 107 18
Finishing Drives 125 52
Quality Drives 53 8
Pace of Play / Other
PFF Tackling 47 65
PFF Coverage 11 126
Special Teams SP+ 13 16
Middle 8 22 109
Seconds per Play 27.9 (84) 30.7 (129)
Rush Rate 59% (24) 55% (59)
Data via CollegeFootballData.com, SP+, Pro Football Focus and SportSource Analytics.

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As of this writing, both the public and sharps appear to be backing the Hoosiers. Approximately 94% of tickets and 91% of money have been bet in favor of Indiana, which has moved the line from its open at 7 to 7.5.

My preferred play is to back Indiana and lay the points.

While Michigan State has demonstrated improvement on defense, they’ll have to play nearly perfectly to slow down the country’s most efficient offense.

Indiana has a 16.5% explosive play rate, while Michigan State allows a 10.4% explosive play rate.

If Michigan State can limit these plays, then the Spartans are a live underdog.

But I’m banking on Indiana’s offense rolling to another double-digit win.

Pick: Indiana -7.5 (-110, bet365) | Play to 10 (-110)

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Location: Spartan Stadium, East Lansing, MI
Date: Saturday, Nov. 2
Kickoff Time: 3:30 p.m. ET
TV / Streaming: Peacock

Indiana vs Michigan State will be played at Spartan Stadium in East Lansing, Michigan, on Saturday, Nov. 2 at 3:30 p.m. ET. You can stream the game live on Peacock.

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