Action Network’s NFL Luck Rankings — a betting-focused version of NFL Power Rankings developed by Action Network’s Predictive Analytics team — are out for Week 9.
These rankings are designed to help you identify which teams’ results have been luckier — or unluckier — than their on-field performance indicates.
For more on how the Luck Rankings work, check out this detailed concept overview. You can also check out our season primer to understand how to use it to bet on the NFL.
An NFL game must qualify for one of the following three criteria to be considered a “Luck Game.”
- A difference of at least 24 places in our weekly NFL Luck Rankings.
- A Luck% difference of at least 50% between two opposing teams at any point in the season.
- A Luck% difference of at least 30% between two opposing teams in Week 13 or later.
The unlucky team in matchups that fit one of those criteria is 124-71-6 (63.2%) against the spread (ATS) in the regular season other than the last week of the season when using closing lines — the hardest line to beat.
In Week 8, unlucky teams in Luck Matchups that meet our thresholds went 2-1 ATS, moving those teams to 11-10-1 (52.3%) ATS on the season.
Luck Totals must meet one of three criteria:
- A Luck Total above +10 after Week 3.
- A Luck Total above +5 after Week 11.
- A Luck Total below -5 after Week 2.
The three Luck Totals in Week 8 were all Luck Unders that went 1-2 to the under. That moves Luck Unders to 6-6-0 on the season, while Luck Overs stay 4-0-0. As a whole, Luck Totals are 10-6-0 (62.5%) for the season.
All luck-based bets meeting any side or total criteria are 21-16-1 (56.6%).
Here’s how our NFL Luck Rankings shake out for Week 9.
NFL Week 9 Luck Rankings
Note: Luck % represents the win probability swing between a team’s expected winning percentage from their on-field performance and their actual winning percentage. Lucky teams may regress and could be overvalued by betting markets.
| RANK | TEAM | Luck % |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |
31.93%
|
|
| 2 |
30.93%
|
|
| 3 |
19.36%
|
|
| 4 |
14.7%
|
|
| 5 |
13.41%
|
|
| 6 |
12.98%
|
|
| 7 |
11.13%
|
|
| 8 |
8.88%
|
|
| 9 |
8.77%
|
|
| 10 |
8.05%
|
|
| 11 |
7.21%
|
|
| 12 |
6.41%
|
|
| 13 |
5.56%
|
|
| 14 |
3.91%
|
|
| 15 |
3.22%
|
|
| 16 |
-1.78%
|
|
| 17 |
-2.16%
|
|
| 18 |
-2.66%
|
|
| 19 |
-4.14%
|
|
| 20 |
-4.49%
|
|
| 21 |
-4.94%
|
|
| 22 |
-6.81%
|
|
| 23 |
-10.74%
|
|
| 24 |
-11.21%
|
|
| 25 |
-11.88%
|
|
| 26 |
-12.16%
|
|
| 27 |
-19.05%
|
|
| 28 |
-19.38%
|
|
| 29 |
-20.17%
|
|
| 30 |
-21.47%
|
|
| 31 |
-23.14%
|
|
| 32 |
-24.28%
|
The Luckiest Teams
1. Green Bay Packers
Green Bay tops the Luck Rankings for the second week in a row after a three-point win against Jacksonville. The result was fair, as this was also a three-point win by Expected Score, but it doesn’t drop the Packers enough to fall out of the top spot.
Green Bay is 4-2 in one-score games including in each of the last two weeks. In the Packers’ two multi-possession victories, they outscored their opponents 64-27 compared to 50.5-42.3 by Expected Score, which averages to two more one-score expected margins.
The Packers rank in the bottom five in non-garbage time early-down success rate and have lived off the more unsustainable play types, which are explosive plays.
2. Kansas City Chiefs
As long as the Chiefs keep winning without being dominant like they were against the Saints in Week 5, they’ll remain near the top of the Luck Rankings. In each of the past two weeks, the Chiefs have allowed their opponents to produce a higher total maximum expected points from each drive than they did, which isn’t a sustainable way of producing wins.
3. Atlanta Falcons
The Falcons unsurprisingly leapfrog the Vikings, who lost last week. However, they also overtook the Texans in the Luck Rankings despite the Houston’s win over Indianapolis that saw it dominate on the field but not on the scoreboard. The Texans picked up only a three-point win in a game that our Expected Score had Houston winning 31-10.
Atlanta, on the other hand, pulled out a one-score game that truly was a 50/50 result. Technically, Tampa Bay won by Expected Score, so winning these coinflip games puts Atlanta on the lucky side once again.
The Unluckiest Teams
30. New Orleans Saints
The Saints miss Derek Carr badly with their backup quarterbacks struggling mightily.. That said, their defense held the Chargers to a relatively poor performance as both teams netted sub-40% success rates, although the Chargers won this battle by
Both teams were nearly equal on total yardage and yards per play as well, and similarly each team ended up with similar scoring drive expectations.
That said, the Chargers were the better team on the day, but it was closer than the final 18-point margin with Los Angeles winning the Expected Score battle 20.1-15.6.
31. Tennessee Titans
The Titans were so thoroughly manhandled by the Lions that they moved up in the Luck Rankings because their 1-6 record is now a truer reflection of their year-to-date performance after that shellacking than their 1-5 record was prior to that.
32. New York Jets
We have a new team at the bottom of the Luck Rankings, and it only makes sense after a historic, one-in-757 failure.
The 2-6 Jets are now 1-4 in one-score games, including 0-3 in games decided by a field goal or less. That’s 1.5 more wins expected just from those three games. Add in this historic loss to the Patriots, which is another half-win under expectation, and that’s how Aaron Rodgers’ team is 2-6 instead of 4-4 by Expected Score.
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