After a 1-2 showing in Week 7, I finally had my first losing week on my weekend props piece.
Still, I’m happy with a 15-6 record on the season for this piece heading into Week 8.
I’m looking at Baker Mayfield, Brian Thomas Jr., Tee Higgins, Amari Cooper and Jaleel McLaughlin for my player props this week. As always, be sure to check in throughout the weekend as I add more to my player props betting card.
Dr. Nick’s NFL Player Prop Picks
- QB Baker Mayfield Under 0.5 Interceptions (+110 at BetMGM)
- WR Brian Thomas Jr. Under 4.5 Receptions (+105 at ESPN BET)
- WR Tee Higgins Under 5.5 Receptions (-105 at BetMGM)
- WR Amari Cooper Longest Reception Under 23.5 Yds (-110 at FanDuel)
- RB Jaleel McLaughlin Over 4.5 Rushing Attempts (+115 at bet365, DraftKings, or ESPN BET)
[subheader sizedown=”false” text=”Baker Mayfield Under 0.5 Interceptions (+110)” subtext=”” center=”false” logo1url=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/tb.png” link1=”” link1follow=”true” logo2url=”” link2=”” link2follow=”true” trailinglogourl=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/779359_BetMGM800x200@1x.png” trailinglink=”” trailinglinkfollow=”true”][/subheader]
Baker Mayfield currently sits second in the NFL in interceptions, and while I have tickets on him leading the league in INTs and over 10.5 for the season, this isn’t the week to back his INT prop, in my opinion.
Mayfield is missing his top two receiving weapons, Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, but given the matchup against Atlanta, I think getting plus money is quite nice.
Atlanta allows the highest completion percentage in the league thanks to a combination of the sixth-lowest pressure rate and the sixth-lowest aDOT allowed, thanks to its heavy zone defense.
Additionally, it isn’t very good at forcing bad passes. The Falcons have the fourth-lowest pass defended rate and have forced just six turnover-worthy plays (TWPs) in seven games, including four games with zero TWPs forced. On average, the QBs the Falcons have faced have a 3.4% TWP rate, but the Falcons have forced an average TWP rate of just 2.0%.
So, while Atlanta has five interceptions, that does come with a healthy dose of luck, given it should have been 3.5 to 4 based on its passes defended and TWPs forced.
Atlanta also takes a hit here, as All-Pro safety Justin Simmons, who has the second-most passes defended and has one of the Falcons’ five picks on the season, is doubtful. Linebacker Troy Andersen, who also has one of the five Atlanta interceptions, is set to miss his fourth straight game.
These teams already faced once, and Mayfield had a near-flawless game, allowing no TWPs and just one pass defended.
I have Mayfield favored to not throw an interception at about 55%, so getting plus money is nice.
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[subheader sizedown=”false” text=”Brian Thomas Jr. Under 4.5 Receptions (+105)” subtext=”” center=”false” logo1url=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/jac.png” link1=”” link1follow=”true” logo2url=”” link2=”” link2follow=”true” trailinglogourl=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/11/ESPNBET-rect-2colorway-e1700601975338.png” trailinglink=”” trailinglinkfollow=”true”][/subheader]
Jacksonville gets the second-biggest upgrade this week in early down success rate. Green Bay has allowed a 47.8% success rate on early downs compared to the 41.3% that Jaguars‘ opponents have allowed so far this year.
That should lead to a few more rush attempts or shorter passes where TE Evan Engram could dominate looks. The Packers allow the seventh-most targets per game to the TE position, in no small part thanks to cornerback Jaire Alexander, who should cover Brian Thomas Jr. plenty.
Thomas is the lone Jacksonville wideout to get a negative coverage matchup grade per Fantasy Points Data, so even when he is targeted, there’s a higher chance for an incompletion.
Jacksonville is also the unlucky team in this Luck Rankings Matchup, so it’s more likely it covers, and even potentially lead, which would put them in a run-heavy script, especially knowing they adjust their run-pass ratio 7% more run-heavy than league average if leading in the second half.
[subheader sizedown=”false” text=”Tee Higgins Under 5.5 Receptions (-105)” subtext=”” center=”false” logo1url=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/cin.png” link1=”” link1follow=”true” logo2url=”” link2=”” link2follow=”true” trailinglogourl=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/779359_BetMGM800x200@1x.png” trailinglink=”” trailinglinkfollow=”true”][/subheader]
Crazy enough, this is the toughest pass defense Tee Higgins will have faced so far this year. The other five teams he’s faced have all had a defensive pass DVOA of 18th or worse, so while the Eagles‘ 16th-ranked pass unit is just midpack, it’s certainly better than the 23.6 average that Higgins has faced this year.
Eagles’ rookie CB Quinyon Mitchell has proven to be worth his first-round price, allowing just a 55% catch rate while defending the most passes on the team. That ranks 17th best among 71 CBs that have faced at least 100 routes.
Higgins figures to line up across from Mitchell for the plurality of his routes, given Mitchell exclusively lines up on the Eagles’ right side, while Higgins lines up out wide on Cincy’s left side north of 40% of the time.
Cincinnati should also focus on the run thanks to the Eagles’ rush defense struggles, where the run-stop unit ranks 23rd by DVOA. The front seven for Philly hasn’t been strong, generating the 10th-lowest pressure rate, showing they’ve been getting beat in the trenches.
When Philadelphia has the ball, they could also suck up some time of possession thanks to their run-heavy offense. The Eagles rush around 7% more than the teams Higgins has faced so far, giving the Bengals less time to possess the ball.
In all, I have Higgins favored to stay under 5.5 receptions, with him staying under around 60% of the time.
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[subheader sizedown=”false” text=”Amari Cooper Longest Reception Under 23.5 Yards (-110)” subtext=”” center=”false” logo1url=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/buf.png” link1=”” link1follow=”true” logo2url=”” link2=”” link2follow=”true” trailinglogourl=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/122955_FanDuelSportsBook@1x.jpg” trailinglink=”” trailinglinkfollow=”true”][/subheader]
Wind and rain are in the forecast in Seattle, which could make for some difficulty in the deeper passing game for each team. That could lead to more focus on each team’s run game, as well as the shorter passing game, both of which will run the clock.
Buffalo also gets a nice upgrade on early-down success rate, with Seattle’s defense allowing a 4.7% higher success rate on first and second down than the average opponent the Bills have faced so far. That will lead to more short-yardage situations, which equates to even more rushing attempts.
Seattle also keeps teams in front of it in the passing game, allowing the fourth-lowest aDOT and the fourth-highest ratio of short to long passes. That’s a big downgrade for Josh Allen, as the opponents he’s faced this year so far allow an aDOT two full yards higher on average than Seattle. When the Seahawks are allowing downfield passes, it’s typically thanks to their league-leading pressure rate, which causes more inaccuracy.
The return of Riq Woolen at CB for the Seahawks will also help keep Amari Cooper in check.
I have Cooper staying under 23.5, closer to 58% of the time, so this isn’t a slam dunk, and the extra yard does occur around 3% of the time, so I’d only take this at 23.5.
[subheader sizedown=”false” text=”Jaleel McLaughlin Over 4.5 Rushing Attempts (+115)” subtext=”” center=”false” logo1url=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/den.png” link1=”” link1follow=”true” logo2url=”” link2=”” link2follow=”true” trailinglogourl=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/859377_Bet365@1x.png” trailinglink=”” trailinglinkfollow=”true”][/subheader]
Denver’s RB2 McLaughlin should get some extra work, given the Broncos are double-digit favorites.
In his two years with the Broncos, when Denver wins, McLaughlin averages 5.2 rushing attempts per game compared to 4.1 when they lose in games Javonte Williams also played. That trend has only exaggerated itself this year, jumping to 6.0 rushing attempts on average in wins, going over the 4.5 line in three of four Broncos wins.
This is also a spot where Denver should run more overall, given the Panthers represent a huge upgrade for Denver in terms of opposing defensive early-down success rate. The Broncos will find themselves in plenty of short-yardage situations, leading to extra attempts for both backs.
In Bryce Young‘s two starts, the Panthers have held an average of just 23.5 minutes of possession. That’s led opposing offenses to average a ridiculous 40.5 rushing attempts per game. That includes 11 and 18 rushing attempts for each team’s RB2.
Even with Audric Estime joining the backfield mix, there should be plenty of rushing attempts to go around. Estime is also in the fumble doghouse after two in just nine rushing attempts so far.
My most conservative projection has McLaughlin averaging 5.2 rushing attempts with a 60% chance of going over.
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