Shara Magomedov vs. Armen Petrosyan Odds
| Magomedov Odds | -175 |
| Petrosyan Odds | +145 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (-280 / +205) |
| Location | Etihad Arena in Abu Dhabi |
| Bout Time | 2 p.m. ET |
| TV/Streaming | ESPN+ PPV |
| UFC 308 odds as of Saturday and via BetMGM. Bet on UFC 308 with our BetMGM promo code. | |
Check out the Shara Magomedov vs. Armen Petrosyan odds for UFC 308 on Saturday, October 26, with my betting preview and breakdown.
Kicking off the UFC 308 main card on ESPN+ PPV on Saturday afternoon is a bout between unranked UFC middleweights with Magomedov vs. Petrosyan.
The steam is on Petrosyan in this matchup; he opened at +150 on the moneyline and is down to +130 at some sportsbooks.
Here’s my Magomedov vs. Petrosyan pick and prediction.
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Tony Sartori’s Tale of the Tape
| Magomedov | Petrosyan | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 14-0 | 9-3 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 14:09 | 11:33 |
| Height | 6’2″ | 6’3″ |
| Weight (pounds) | 185 lbs. | 185 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 73″ | 71″ |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 5/16/1994 | 11/3/1990 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 6.88 | 5.69 |
| SS Accuracy | 66% | 52% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 3.72 | 2.90 |
| SS Defense | 41% | 56% |
| Take Down Avg | 0.00 | 0.22 |
| TD Acc | 0% | 33% |
| TD Def | 71% | 31% |
| Submission Avg | 0.0 | 0.0 |
While I agree with the steam and believe that Petrosyan will pull off the upset, I want to target a different market in this matchup. Specifically, I want to target this fight to go the distance at -220, which is available at FanDuel.
That is a relatively large price tag compared to my usual analysis, but I believe there is still quite a bit of value in that number.
Let’s start with Magomedov, who carries a perfect 14-0 record into this matchup. He is a one-dimensional fighter: All the action takes place on the feet for Magomedov.
Subsequently, his method-of-finish odds are as follows:
- Decision (+145)
- KO/TKO (+350)
- Submission (+2600)
Eliminating submission, that just leaves the KO/TKO prop to worry about. While 11 of Magomedov’s 14 professional wins have come by KO/TKO, Petrosyan has been knocked out just once through 11 bouts.
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Magomedov vs. Petrosyan Pick
While a Magomedov knockout is certainly possible, Petrosyan is capable of weathering the storm. He has gone the distance against the likes of Christian Leroy Duncan, Caio Borralho and Gregory Rodrigues, all of whom carry finishing potential.
In fact, four of Petrosyan’s last five fights have needed the judges’ input. The only one that didn’t go to decision over that stretch came against Rodolfo Vieira, a submission specialist.
Magomedov is absolutely not a submission specialist.
Neither is Petrosyan, given that he joins Magomedov in the zero-submission game. Neither guy has ever made someone else tap, which is why both are north of 20/1 to win by that method.
The two main ways this fight are likely to end are by decision and knockout. Given that both are strong strikers with solid chins, I don’t think that -220 is a long enough price tag for this fight to go the distance.
Tony’s Pick: Fight Goes to Decision (-220 at FanDuel) | Play to -235
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