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Rutgers vs. USC Prediction, Pick, Best Bets, Odds for Friday, October 25

It’s safe to say that one team is going to get back on track in this matchup. The Rutgers Scarlet Knights (4-3) and the USC Trojans (3-4) both come into this game on three-game losing streaks and face off at 11 p.m. ET on FOX on Friday.

USC is a consensus 14-point favorite over Rutgers on the spread (USC -14), with the over/under currently set at 56.5 points. The Trojans are -624 favorites on the moneyline to win outright, with the Scarlet Knights +449 to pull off the upset.

Rutgers showed some heart last week as it battled back against UCLA. It was down 35-19 entering the fourth quarter and closed the gap to three before the clock struck zero. USC comes into this game off a tough loss. The Trojans blew a two-touchdown lead to Maryland in the fourth quarter, as the Terps put together two quick scoring drives to escape with the 29-28 win.

Will the Trojans regain their form in Pasadena? Here’s my Rutgers vs. USC predictions and my college football picks for Friday.

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My Pick: Under 56.5

My USC vs. Rutgers best bet is on the under, with the best line currently available at DraftKings, according to our live NCAAF odds page.

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Rutgers vs. USC Odds

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  • Rutgers vs USC spread: USC -14
  • Rutgers vs USC over/under: 56.5 points
  • Rutgers vs. USC moneyline: USC -624, Rutgers +449
  • Rutgers vs. USC best bet: Under 56.5

Spread

I don’t have a pick on the spread for tonight, as the line has stayed relatively steady at USC -14.

Over/Under

My best bet for Friday Night Football on FOX is the under at 56.5. If you can find a better line than that, even better!

Moneyline

I won’t be betting the USC vs. Rutgers moneyline with the Trojans such heavy favorites but no value on the underdog Knights.

My Pick: Under 56.5

Betting Trends to Know

  • 62% of bets and 61% of the money are on USC to cover the spread.
  • 93% of bets and 81% of the money on the moneyline are on USC to win outright.
  • 53% of bets and 56% of the money are on the over.

Betting trends via our live, updating NCAAF public betting & money percentages page.

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Location: Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum
Date: Friday, Oct. 25
Kickoff Time: 11 p.m. ET
TV / Streaming: FOX / YouTube TV

Rutgers duels with USC at Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum on Friday, Oct. 25, at 11 p.m. ET on FOX and streaming live on the FOX Sports app and YouTube TV.

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For the Scarlet Knights, it all starts on the ground with Kyle Monangai. Monangai has carried this offense, rushing for 845 yards and scoring 10 times through just seven games.

He’ll have the opportunity to keep chugging against the Trojans’ defense, as USC ranks 86th in yards per rush allowed and 70th in Rushing Success Rate allowed.

Additionally, Rutgers’ ground game should be consistent throughout this contest, as the Scarlet Knights have the edge in the trenches. They outrank the Trojans 44 to 69 in Line Yards on this side of the ball.

However, the offensive success won’t just be limited to the ground game. Rutgers will be able to throw the ball, even with a struggling Athan Kaliakmanis under center.

USC ranks 120th in sack rate and 129th in opponent completion percentage allowed. Rutgers will put together multiple methodical drives on this Trojans’ defense and can control the game with its rushing attack.

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On the other side of the ball, the Trojans are a contrast to Scarlet Knights. USC is throwing the ball at the fifth-highest rate in the country this season.

The Trojans have full confidence in quarterback Miller Moss, and the former blue-chip recruit hasn’t led them astray. Moss is 40th in the country in completion percentage and holds a 14-to-6 touchdown-to-interception ratio.

The Scarlet Knights’ secondary has been susceptible this season, as well. They rank 98th in opponent completion percentage allowed and 66th in opponent yards per pass allowed, which has culminated in a rank of 65 in Passing Success Rate.

However, the Trojans’ biggest edge will be on the ground — if they choose to operate there. Rutgers is 113th in yards per rush allowed and is outranked 15 to 89 in line yards.

So, just like the Scarlet Knights, the Trojans will have the opportunity to move the ball methodically downfield with an even bigger push up-front. We should see them do so, as Rutgers has yet to prove itself against Big Ten opposition.

Rutgers vs. USC Matchup Analysis

Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Rutgers and USC match up statistically:

Rutgers Offense vs. USC Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success 31 70
Line Yards 44 69
Pass Success 72 44
Havoc 10 91
Finishing Drives 84 78
Quality Drives 78 49
USC Offense vs. Rutgers Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success 20 117
Line Yards 15 89
Pass Success 34 65
Havoc 58 107
Finishing Drives 50 49
Quality Drives 32 27
Pace of Play / Other
PFF Tackling 51 14
PFF Coverage 71 23
Special Teams SP+ 101 47
Middle 8 78 50
Seconds per Play 27.5 (71) 26.8 (57)
Rush Rate 58% (37) 40% (129)
Data via CollegeFootballData.com, SP+, Pro Football Focus and SportSource Analytics.

We’ve seen this total move both ways since opening, as it’s been as low as 54.5 and as high as 57.

That’s a testament to the amount of offensive success we should see from both sides in this matchup.

However, as I explained in both sections, each team has a significant edge on the ground, which will allow for long scoring drives with rushing success on early downs and third-down conversions through the air.

The spread will come down to which defense can adjust quickly enough, but either way, these offenses should eat a ton of clock and keep this game under the listed total.

Pick: Under 56.5 (Play to 54.5)

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Doug Ziefel

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