An old saying is that one man’s trash is another man’s treasure. Well, folks, you need to look elsewhere if you’re trying to find any treasure watching this game.
We’ve got a couple of 1-6 teams set to face off in a Mountain West Conference showdown. The Wyoming Cowboys (1-6, 1-2 MWC) host the Utah State Aggies (1-6, 0-3) in Laramie, Wyoming, on Saturday. Kickoff is set for 7 p.m. ET on CBS Sports Network.
The Aggies are coming off a devastating 50-45 loss to New Mexico after holding the lead for 98% of the contest. It was a classic shootout between two teams who believe defense is optional.
Meanwhile, the Cowboys most recently suffered a 24-14 road loss at San Jose State.
You’re lying to yourself if you think you know exactly what will unfold in Laramie. Oddsmakers have the Aggies as 1.5-point favorites with the total set at 57.5.
Grab your hazmat suits and oxygen tanks because I’m diving into an Atlantic Ocean’s worth of waste for this glorious matchup. Let’s uncover the best betting angle in my Utah State vs Wyoming predictions and college football picks for Saturday, Oct. 26.
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- Utah State vs Wyoming Pick: Over 56.5
My Utah State vs Wyoming best bet is on both teams to go over the total, with the best line currently available at bet365, according to our live NCAAF odds page.
Utah State vs Wyoming Odds, Spread, Over/Under
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- Utah State vs Wyoming Spread: Utah State -2
- Utah State vs Wyoming Over/Under: 56.5 Points
- Utah State vs Wyoming Moneyline: Utah State -125 · Wyoming +105
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[subheader sizedown=”false” text=”Utah State Football vs Wyoming Footbal Preview” center=”true” logo1url=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/ncaaf/100/uts.png” logo2url=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/ncaaf/100/wyo.png”][/subheader]
Utah State Aggies Betting Preview: Good Offense, Bad Defense
The Aggies offense was shredding last week. They moved up and down the field with zero resistance. Their matchup against New Mexico had the highest total on the board (78.5), and they cleared it with roughly nine minutes to go in the matchup.
The Utah State defense forced four turnovers but still allowed the Lobos to rack up over 500 yards of offense. Its defense is easily a bottom-three unit in the entire FBS.
Quarterback Spencer Petras is the best option to run the offense, as he’s been an upgrade over Bryson Barnes. Petras has thrown nine touchdowns, but he has also compiled six interceptions.
The Aggies rank 36th in Line Yards and 47th in Pass Success Rate. They also do a decent job in the Havoc Allowed department, ranking 61st in that category.
This team plays at the fifth-fastest pace in terms of seconds per play, which suggests it’s “all gas, no brakes.”
The strength of the Pokes defense comes against the run, but the Aggies only run the ball 44% of the time, so it’s an accurate Air Raid approach.
This will be an incredibly juicy matchup against a Pokes defense that can’t defend the pass, tackle, create pressure or cover receivers.
On the other side, Utah State is awfully similar. It ranks outside the top 125 in all of the following categories:
- Rush and Pass Success Rate Allowed
- Havoc
- Defensive Line Yards
- Finishing Drives
- Quality Drives
It’s a complete dumpster fire of a unit, and it was just on the field for 78 plays last week.
There’s no way I will lay points with the Aggies against anybody right now simply because of their horrific defense. However, their offense should be able to hang another crooked number on the scoreboard.
[expertpickswidget league=”ncaaf” gameid=”226939″ date=”20241026″ week=”” seasontype=””][/expertpickswidget]
Wyoming Cowboys Betting Preview: Need Help From Svoboda
You thought the Aggies were terrible? Well, the entire fan base in Laramie just yelled, “Hold my beer.”
I keep hearing from Pokes Nation that quarterback Evan Svoboda is the next Josh Allen. If Svoboda is the next Allen, I guess Petras is the next Patrick Mahomes.
All jokes aside, Svoboda must be more accurate thus far, as he boasts a 48% completion rate. He’s the leading passer and rusher on the Pokes, chipping in three rushing touchdowns.
However, Wyoming’s offensive metrics are horrific, nut there’s one facet on the offensive side it does consistently well. The only offensive metric that it’s not outside the top 100 in is Havoc Allowed.
Outside of that, it sits outside the top 100 in the following categories:
- Rush and Pass Success Rate
- Finishing Drives
- Quality Drives
- EPA/Play
- Yards/Play
- Line Yards
The Cowboys would be better off running fullback dives every play.
The bright side is that the Aggies defense is so bad that Svoboda may actually replicate an Allen-esque performance this week.
The defensive side of the ball is slightly better, but there are still issues I’m concerned about. The Cowboys’ secondary has been shredded throughout the entire season, and to make matters worse, they’re going up against an excellent Aggies passing attack.
They’re 104th in Havoc and 93rd in Finishing Drives Allowed, so there’s a chance their defense is on the field for extended periods of time.
I can’t back the Pokes here despite the fact their offense should benefit from a soft matchup against the Aggies.
Utah State vs Wyoming Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Utah State and Wyoming match up statistically:
Utah State Offense vs. Wyoming Defense
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Offense
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Defense
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Edge
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| Rush Success | 98 | 60 |
[teamlogo linktoteampage=”false” league=”ncaaf” fullname=”Wyoming” logo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/ncaaf/100/wyo.png”][/teamlogo]
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| Line Yards | 36 | 75 |
[teamlogo linktoteampage=”false” league=”ncaaf” fullname=”Utah State” logo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/ncaaf/100/uts.png”][/teamlogo]
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| Pass Success | 47 | 115 |
[teamlogo linktoteampage=”false” league=”ncaaf” fullname=”Utah State” logo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/ncaaf/100/uts.png”][/teamlogo]
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| Havoc | 61 | 104 |
[teamlogo linktoteampage=”false” league=”ncaaf” fullname=”Utah State” logo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/ncaaf/100/uts.png”][/teamlogo]
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| Finishing Drives | 101 | 93 |
[teamlogo linktoteampage=”false” league=”ncaaf” fullname=”Wyoming” logo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/ncaaf/100/wyo.png”][/teamlogo]
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| Quality Drives | 91 | 109 |
[teamlogo linktoteampage=”false” league=”ncaaf” fullname=”Utah State” logo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/ncaaf/100/uts.png”][/teamlogo]
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Wyoming Offense vs. Utah State Defense
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Offense
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Defense
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Edge
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| Rush Success | 131 | 125 |
[teamlogo linktoteampage=”false” league=”ncaaf” fullname=”Utah State” logo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/ncaaf/100/uts.png”][/teamlogo]
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| Line Yards | 131 | 129 |
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| Pass Success | 132 | 122 |
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| Havoc | 99 | 126 |
[teamlogo linktoteampage=”false” league=”ncaaf” fullname=”Wyoming” logo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/ncaaf/100/wyo.png”][/teamlogo]
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| Finishing Drives | 128 | 131 |
[teamlogo linktoteampage=”false” league=”ncaaf” fullname=”Draw” logo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2021/08/Minus.png”][/teamlogo]
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| Quality Drives | 125 | 131 |
[teamlogo linktoteampage=”false” league=”ncaaf” fullname=”Wyoming” logo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/ncaaf/100/wyo.png”][/teamlogo]
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Pace of Play / Other
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[teamlogo linktoteampage=”false” league=”ncaaf” fullname=”Wyoming Cowboys” logo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/ncaaf/100/wyo.png”][/teamlogo]
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| PFF Tackling | 109 | 79 |
| PFF Coverage | 97 | 93 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 104 | 79 |
| Middle 8 | 126 | 110 |
| Seconds per Play | 22.6 (5) | 27.0 (59) |
| Rush Rate | 44% (118) | 57% (48) |
[subheader sizedown=”false” text=”Utah State vs Wyoming Pick & Prediction” center=”true” logo1url=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/252389_action-logo-check.png”][/subheader]
I’m going against the public here and targeting the over.
I would grab it before it eclipses 58, and there’s even a possibility that it drops a bit further.
Relying on Svoboda to score points is a scary proposition, but I truly think he will benefit from the Aggies’ lack of defense. They allowed 50 points to New Mexico last week, and there’s no telling how much worse they can get.
I expect Utah State to score on almost every offensive possession, which should contribute greatly to the total. However, the Aggies team total is too steep for me, so I’ll bank on the Pokes offense contributing as it takes advantage of a plus matchup.
Pick: Over 56.5 (-110, bet365) | Play to 58.5 (-110)
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[subheader sizedown=”true” text=”Utah State vs Wyoming Start Time, TV Channel, How to Watch” center=”true”][/subheader]
| Location: | War Memorial Stadium, Laramie, WY |
| Date: | Saturday, Oct. 26 |
| Kickoff Time: | 7 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | CBS Sports Network |
[subheader sizedown=”true” text=”Utah State vs Wyoming Betting Trends” center=”true”][/subheader]
- 87% of bets and 85% of the money are on Utah State to cover the spread
- 47% of bets and 73% of the money on the moneyline are on Utah State to win outright
- 33% of bets and 71% of the money are on the over
Betting trends via our live, updating NCAAF public betting & money percentages page.
[subheader sizedown=”true” text=”Utah State vs Wyoming Weather” center=”true”][/subheader]
[gameforecast league=”ncaaf” gameid=”226939″ date=”2024-10-26″][/gameforecast]
