Action Network’s NFL Luck Rankings — a betting-focused version of NFL Power Rankings developed by Action Network’s Predictive Analytics team — are out for Week 8!
These rankings are designed to help you identify which teams’ results have been luckier — or unluckier — than their on-field performance indicates.
For more on how the Luck Rankings work, check out this detailed concept overview. You can also check out our season primer to understand how to use it to bet on the NFL.
An NFL game must qualify for one of the following three criteria to be considered a “Luck Game.”
- A difference of at least 24 places in our weekly NFL Luck Rankings.
- A Luck% difference of at least 50% between two opposing teams at any point in the season.
- A Luck% difference of at least 30% between two opposing teams in Week 13 or later.
The unlucky team in matchups that fit one of those criteria is 122-70-6 (63%) against the spread (ATS) in the regular season other than the last week of the season when using closing lines — the hardest line to beat.
In Week 7, there were no Luck Matchups, keeping the unlucky team in these games at 9-9-1 (50%) ATS on the season.
Luck totals must meet one of three criteria:
- A Luck Total above +10 after Week 3.
- A Luck Total above +5 after Week 11.
- A Luck Total below -5 after Week 2.
The three Luck Totals in Week 7 included two Luck Unders that went 1-1 to the under and a Luck Over that went 1-0 to the over. That moves Luck Unders to 5-4-0 on the season, while Luck Overs move to 4-0-0. As a whole, Luck Totals are 9-4-0 (69.2%) for the season.
All luck-based bets meeting any side or total criteria are 18-13-1 (57.8%).
Here’s how our NFL Luck Rankings shake out for Week 8.
NFL Week 8 Luck Rankings
Note: Luck % represents the win probability swing between a team’s expected winning percentage from their on-field performance and their actual winning percentage. Lucky teams may regress and could be overvalued by betting markets.
RANK | TEAM | Luck % |
---|---|---|
1 |
31.2%
|
|
2 |
29.34%
|
|
3 |
18.48%
|
|
4 |
17.61%
|
|
5 |
16.05%
|
|
6 |
12.23%
|
|
7 |
10.26%
|
|
8 |
8.94%
|
|
9 |
8.51%
|
|
10 |
8.46%
|
|
11 |
8.13%
|
|
12 |
6.7%
|
|
13 |
6.19%
|
|
14 |
4.86%
|
|
15 |
3.78%
|
|
16 |
3.77%
|
|
17 |
3.27%
|
|
18 |
-2.62%
|
|
19 |
-4.73%
|
|
20 |
-4.84%
|
|
21 |
-7.5%
|
|
22 |
-12.52%
|
|
23 |
-12.85%
|
|
24 |
-13.06%
|
|
25 |
-15.91%
|
|
26 |
-16.34%
|
|
27 |
-16.39%
|
|
28 |
-16.47%
|
|
29 |
-16.98%
|
|
30 |
-18.73%
|
|
31 |
-21.05%
|
|
32 |
-28.72%
|
The Luckiest Teams
1. Green Bay Packers
Packers vs. Texans last week was the unofficial “Luck Bowl” since the winner had a good shot of ending up in the top spot of the Luck Rankings. That turned out to be the case, as the Packers 24-22 win was actually a 26.8-18.0 Expected Score win for the Texans.
A lot of that was due to field position. Here’s what went against the Texans:
- They settled for a field goal after getting to the Packers’ 5 yard-line.
- Houston punted in Green Bay territory twice.
- The Texans settled for another field goal after a first-and-10 situation from the Green Bay 12
The maximum expected points from these four drives summed up to 15.9 points, but the Texans mustered just six. An offense of Houston’s caliber against this Packers defense is expected to put up much more than six points from those drives.
Meanwhile, Green Bay absolutely maximized its opportunities, scoring on all four drives (three touchdowns and a field goal) that took more than four plays. That’s an unsustainable way to produce points, especially with two relatively lucky touchdowns. The first was a 30-yard touchdown (touchdowns from explosive plays are less sustainable), and the other was a 14-yard touchdown on third down. The Packers would’ve settled for a field goal if they don’t convert, so the touchdown comes in nearly 2.5 points over expectation.
2. Kansas City Chiefs
The Chiefs are back to No. 2 in the Luck Rankings after an undefeated start to the season. A lot of this is just due to the fact that other lucky teams have fallen by the wayside, while the Chiefs just keep winning.
Kansas City’s Luck% has dropped from a peak of nearly 60% down to 29.3% this week, but that’s good enough to rank them as the second-luckiest team on the season as a whole.
3. Houston Texans
Despite the Texans very unlucky week, they fall only to No. 3 in the Luck Rankings because they had such a big lead heading into the week. However, their Luck% was nearly cut in half from 35.4% going into Week 7 down to 18.5%.
The Unluckiest Teams
Last week’s bottom three — the New Orleans Saints, Los Angeles Rams, and Tennessee Titans — remain this week’s bottom three in the same order.
That’ll happen when all three teams technically got unlucky, as even the winning Rams should have won by a bigger margin according to our Expected Score.
Combined, these teams should have lost by a total Expected Score of 84.6 to 56.7, an Expected Score margin of 27.9 points, but instead they lost by a total of 82 to 40, an actual margin of 42 points.
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