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Notre Dame vs. Navy Odds, Picks, Predictions

In 96 previous meetings between the No. 12 Notre Dame Fighting Irish (6-1) and the No. 24 Navy Midshipmen (6-0, 4-0 AAC), the stakes have never been higher. Now, there will be College Football Playoff implications on the line on Saturday at 12 p.m. ET on ABC, streaming live on YouTube TV and ESPN+.

The latest odds have the Irish as 13.5-point favorites over Navy on the spread (Notre Dame -13.5). The total has come all the way down to over/under 50.5 points scored, after opening just above the key number of 55. The Irish are -590 on the moneyline, with the Midshipmen +430.

Notre Dame’s lone 16-14 loss against Northern Illinois would be forgiven with a sweep of the remaining schedule, while Navy has its hands in several pots, aiming for an American Athletic Conference Championship appearance before the annual showdown with Army for the Commander-in-Chief’s Trophy.

The neutral site of MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, New Jersey is sure to be filled by both fan bases. Where does the betting value lie? Let’s dive into my Notre Dame vs. Navy predictions and college football picks for Saturday.

Notre Dame vs. Navy Odds

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  • Notre Dame vs. Navy spread: Notre Dame -13.5
  • Notre Dame vs. Navy over/under: 50.5 points
  • Notre Dame vs. Navy moneyline: Notre Dame -590, Navy +430
  • Notre Dame vs. Navy best bets: Notre Dame -13 · First-Half Over 26.5

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Prediction

I have two picks for this one. My Notre Dame vs. Navy best bets are on the Fighting Irish spread at -13 and the first-half over, with the best lines currently available at DraftKings, according to our live NCAAF odds page.

Spread

I’m betting the spread in this one, but I would look to bet it at Notre Dame -13 or better.

Over/Under

While I’m not on the full-game total on Saturday, I am taking the over in the first half.

Moneyline

I do not have a bet on the outright winner today.

My picks: Notre Dame -13 · First-Half Over 26.5

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Notre Dame Football

Head coach Marcus Freeman was clear in his weekly press conference: Notre Dame has been preparing for months to take on this Navy offense.

There are plenty of wrinkles in the Midshipmen offense that have been added this season, but the most important aspect of this game is the discipline of Irish defenders.

No matter if the triple option comes from under center or shotgun, the defense must plug the A-gap and set outside contain.

Howard Cross III and Rylie Mills will serve as the defensive interior to stop the fullback dive. Of all defensive interiors to play at least 100 run defense snaps, Cross and Mills rank just outside the top 140 of individual defenders.

Notre Dame supports a Stuff Rate outside the top 80, suggesting short-yardage situations may favor Navy.

The next item to handicap is outside contain when it comes to defending the quarterback run outside the tackle when the fullback dive is not used.

The Irish have used four different edge players in defensive rush snaps. Of defensive ends who have logged at least 50 snaps against the rush, Joshua Burnham is the only player to rank in the individual top 200, per PFF.

The numbers do not suggest Notre Dame will consistently defend the quarterback keeper, as three of the defenders named have higher-than-average missed tackle rates.

The final handicap of the Notre Dame defense comes against the play-action pass.

The Irish have seen 62 play-action attempts this season, giving up a mid-FBS Success Rate of 50% while generating a low number of negative plays.

Notre Dame has been elite in terms of not giving up the big pass play so far this season, but numbers against play action suggest Navy could find success.

The Irish are allowing a big-play rate of 23% against play action, which is notable against a Navy offense that uses one of the highest rates of play-action nationally.

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Navy Football

The Navy offense has blitzed every opponent on the schedule after minor tweaks to the offensive scheme. The triple-option offense has taken on a few wrinkles under coordinator Drew Cronic.

While the fullback dive, quarterback keeper and running back pitch are still a staple of the offense, pre-snap formations have a new look for Navy.

The Wing-T, spread option, RPO and plenty of play-action have created a boom in the stats for quarterback Blake Horvath.

Navy’s run concept usage has changes, with inside zone, power and fullback run getting as much usage as the triple option.

The numbers suggest this is one of the most efficient and explosive offenses in the nation, but a strength of schedule at 132nd means Notre Dame will be Navy’s toughest game of the season.

The Midshipmen have struggled on defense, specifically ranking outside the top 100 in rushing analytics such as Success Rate and Line Yards. Opposing rushing attacks have destroyed Navy with man and inside zone read concepts.

Coordinator P.J. Volker has struggled to find resistance in early downs versus passing downs, as Navy’s Success Rate moves from 102nd to sixth.

Notre Dame vs. Navy Matchup Analysis

Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Notre Dame and Navy match up statistically:

Notre Dame Offense vs. Navy Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success 57 103
Line Yards 42 123
Pass Success 67 18
Havoc 38 47
Finishing Drives 12 20
Quality Drives 41 16
Navy Offense vs. Notre Dame Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success 5 71
Line Yards 10 35
Pass Success 7 2
Havoc 1 26
Finishing Drives 7 17
Quality Drives 21 4
Pace of Play / Other
PFF Tackling 13 17
PFF Coverage 2 30
Special Teams SP+ 30 59
Middle 8 1 4
Seconds per Play 28.9 (106) 29.6 (120)
Rush Rate 56% (43) 77% (3)
Data via CollegeFootballData.com, SP+, Pro Football Focus and SportSource Analytics.

How to Bet My Notre Dame vs. Navy Pick

The bread and butter of the Notre Dame offense has been the usage of inside zone read concepts. The Irish run the ball at a 56% rate with quarterback Riley Leonard and workhorse running back Jeremiyah Love.

Backup running back Jadarian Price has seen increased attempts over the past two games as well, totaling 20 carries against Georgia Tech and Stanford.

The trio have been electric after first contact, with Love at 4.2 yards to Price’s 5.2 yards.

There’s no run concept that has gashed the Midshipmen defense worse than inside zone, as Navy averages a 38% Success Rate and a poor bottom-20 rank in Defensive Stuff Rate.

 

The explosives for Notre Dame are all expected to come on the ground against a Navy defense that raks 103rd in Opponent Rush EPA and 123rd in Defensive Line Yards.

The biggest question comes with a Notre Dame defense and the ability to stay disciplined in its assignments. Navy’s new-look offense includes more than triple option, with power and fullback dive serving as the most successful run concepts for the Midshipmen.

The Irish have struggled against a number of run plays in Navy’s arsenal, particularly inside zone and power.

There are advantages for both offenses early in this game, as offensive splits by half and quarter suggest an early blitz of scoring opportunities.

Notre Dame has seen a decrease in opponent scoring in the second half of every game this season, just as Navy’s offense has seen a decrease in points in the second half of games.

Navy is the second-highest point scorer in the first half of all teams in FBS. Look for the Midshipmen to empty the bag early against the Irish defense, while the Notre Dame rush attack picks up whatever it wants.

Pick: Notre Dame -13 or Better · First-Half Over 26.5 or Better

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Notre Dame vs Navy Start Time, TV Channel, Location, How to Watch

Location: MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, NJ
Date: Saturday, Oct. 26
Kickoff Time: 12 p.m. ET
TV / Streaming: ABC

Notre Dame and Navy go head-to-head in Jersey on Saturday, Oct. 26, at 12 p.m. ET on ABC.

Notre Dame vs. Navy Betting Trends

  • 65% of bets and 62% of the money are on Navy to cover the spread
  • 87% of bets and 27% of the money on the moneyline are on Notre Dame to win outright
  • 86% of bets and 82% of the money are on the over

Betting trends via our live, updating NCAAF public betting & money percentages page.

Notre Dame vs. Navy Weather

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