After a 3-2 showing in Week 6, I’m up to 14-4 on my four NFL player prop pieces this season.
That includes going 4-for-5 in Week 2, 4-for-4 in Week 4 and 3-for-4 in Week 5.
We’re on to NFL Week 7 with another player prop to kick off the slate.
Also, bookmark this page because I’ll likely add more NFL props throughout the weekend before NFL Week 7 kicks off on Sunday.
Dr. Nick’s NFL Player Prop Picks
- QB Geno Smith Over 24.5 Pass Completions (-117 at Caesars)
- Ja’Lynn Polk Over 1.5 Receptions (+104 at Caesars)
- Brandon Aiyuk Under 4.5 Receptions (-115 at bet365)
[gameheader haspick=”true” picktext=”Geno Smith Over 24.5 Pass Completions (-117)” league=”mlb” awaylogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/sea.png” awayname=”Seattle Seahawks” awayslug=”seattle-seahawks” homelogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/atl.png” homename=”Atlanta Falcons” homeslug=”atlanta-falcons” date=”Sunday, Oct. 20″ time=”1 p.m. ET” network=”” bookname=”Caesars” bookprimarylogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/256064_caesars_800x200.png” bookreviewslug=”caesars-sportsbook”][/gameheader]
I’m not a huge fan of saying a player has cleared a line in X of his past Y games as a justification for backing that trend. However, in this case, Geno Smith has cleared this line in five of six games this season and it’s probably just a bit too low.
Atlanta does a handful of things out of the ordinary that contribute to Smith getting the over here, so let’s just list them all:
- Shortest defensive aDOT allowed
- Second-lowest defensive pressure rate
- Lowest defensive sack rate
- Fastest offensive neutral game script pace
- Second-lowest offensive time of possession
All of those contribute to either higher passing volume or efficiency, which is why the Falcons allow the sixth-most completions per game.
That number would be even higher if the Falcons weren’t trailing for nearly twice as many plays as they’ve been leading in the second half, which has forced opponents into more run-heavy scripts. As a home favorite, Atlanta stands a chance of allowing even more passing volume than it has if the Falcons find themselves ahead in the second half.
Given how much pressure Smith has been under this year (fourth-highest among qualified QBs) and his significant pressure/no-pressure splits, this is a step up for Smith in expected completion rate. Even if the Seahawks lead, it’s likely through plenty of short passing efficiency in a high-tempo game.
Having a way to hit this prop regardless of game script is certainly helpful.
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[gameheader haspick=”true” picktext=”Ja’Lynn Polk Over 1.5 Receptions (+104)” league=”nfl” awaylogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/ne.png” awayname=”Patriots” awayslug=”new-england-patriots” homelogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/jac.png” homename=”Jaguars” homeslug=”jacksonville-jaguars” date=”Sunday, Oct 20″ time=”9:30 a.m. ET” network=”NFL Network” bookname=”Caesars” bookprimarylogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/256064_caesars_800x200.png” bookreviewslug=”caesars-sportsbook”][/gameheader]
Polk’s current catch rate of 43.5% represents the seventh-lowest catch rate over expected among all qualified receivers. His 12.6 aDOT should lead to a catch rate nearly 15% higher, and even if we discount poor QB play, he still should be closer to a 50% catch rate long term.
He also stands to benefit from the Jaguars’ schemes. While Jacksonville does play Cover 1 at the second-highest rate in the NFL, they also play two-high safety looks nearly all the rest of the time. Polk is targeted on 23% of his routes vs. two-high looks compared to 11% against single-high coverage.
He also benefits from the Jaguars’ lack of pressure. Jacksonville generates the 10th lowest pressure rate. Polk sees his targets per route run jump to 20% when Patriot QBs have a clean pocket compared to 11% when they are pressured.
Drake Maye has looked for Demario Douglas on 30% of his pass attempts so far, but I expect that to decrease as he becomes more comfortable as an NFL passer and distribute the ball around more.
That should help Polk as well, and once his catch rate aligns with his average depth of target, Polk should start seeing better days. Hopefully those days begin on Sunday in what should be a trailing game script for the Patriots.
I have Polk projected to clear 1.5 catches closer to 63% of the time, so there’s a nice edge here.
[gameheader haspick=”true” picktext=”Brandon Aiyuk Under 4.5 Receptions (-115)” league=”nfl” awaylogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/kc.png” awayname=”Chiefs” awayslug=”kansas-city-chiefs” homelogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/sf.png” homename=”49ers” homeslug=”san-francisco-49ers” date=”Sunday, Oct 20″ time=”4:25 p.m. ET” network=”FOX” bookname=”bet365″ bookprimarylogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/676387_Bet365@1x.png” bookreviewslug=”bet365″][/gameheader]
Jauan Jennings’ absence this week opens the door for more targets, but I’m not sure those will end up going to Aiyuk given the matchup.
Kansas City does two things really well that hurts Aiyuk. First, the Chiefs generate pressure at the highest rate in the NFL. Aiyuk’s targets per route run drop from 29% when Brock Purdy has a clean pocket to just 9% when pressured.
The Chiefs also employ two-high safety looks at the second-highest rate in the NFL. Against two-high looks, Aiyuk only sees a target on 16% of his routes compared to 25% against single-high safeties. That’s in large part why the Chiefs are tied with the lowest allowed median aDOT of just 4 yards. That doesn’t mesh with Aiyuk’s team-longest target depth.
Aiyuk does have 7.2 targets per game, but if we remove the game where both Deebo Samuel and George Kittle were out, that drops to just 6.2. Factor in the matchup, and the Chiefs ability to hold the ball and that should negate any target advantage Aiyuk gets from the loss of Jennings.
I have Aiyuk projected closer to 4.2 receptions with a 60% chance of staying under 4.5.
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