Action Network’s NFL Luck Rankings — a betting-focused version of NFL Power Rankings developed by Action Network’s Predictive Analytics team — are out for Week 7!
These rankings are designed to help you identify which teams’ results have been luckier — or unluckier — than their on-field performance indicates.
For more on how the Luck Rankings work, check out this detailed concept overview. You can also check out our season primer to understand how to use it to bet on the NFL.
An NFL game must qualify for one of the following three criteria to be considered a “Luck Game.”
- A difference of at least 24 places in our weekly NFL Luck Rankings.
- A Luck% difference of at least 50% between two opposing teams at any point in the season.
- A Luck% difference of at least 30% between two opposing teams in Week 13 or later.
The unlucky team in matchups that fit one of those criteria is 122-70-6 (63%) against the spread (ATS) in the regular season other than the last week of the season when using closing lines — the hardest line to beat.
In Week 6, the lone Luck Matchup lost as the Patriots to the Texans, failing to cover the closing 6.5-point spread. That moves the unlucky team in luck-based matchups to a 9-9-1 (50%) record ATS on the season.
Luck totals must meet one of three criteria:
- A Luck Total above +10 after Week 3.
- A Luck Total above +5 after Week 11.
- A Luck Total below -5 after Week 2.
The three Luck Totals in Week 6 were all Luck Unders and went 1-2 to the under. That moves Luck Unders to 4-3-0 on the season, while Luck Overs remain at 3-0-0. Luck Totals are 7-3-0 (70%) for the season.
All luck-based bets meeting any side or total criteria are 16-11-1 (59%).
Here’s how our NFL Luck Rankings shake out for Week 7.
NFL Week 7 Luck Rankings
Note: Luck % represents the win probability swing between a team’s expected winning percentage from their on-field performance and their actual winning percentage. Lucky teams may regress and could be overvalued by betting markets.
| RANK | TEAM | Luck % |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |
35.42%
|
|
| 2 |
31.04%
|
|
| 3 |
25.88%
|
|
| 4 |
24.63%
|
|
| 5 |
23.13%
|
|
| 6 |
11.05%
|
|
| 7 |
10.23%
|
|
| 8 |
9.57%
|
|
| 9 |
8.13%
|
|
| 10 |
7.71%
|
|
| 11 |
6.21%
|
|
| 12 |
4.76%
|
|
| 13 |
3.84%
|
|
| 14 |
3.78%
|
|
| 15 |
3.15%
|
|
| 16 |
0.72%
|
|
| 17 |
0.17%
|
|
| 18 |
-1.14%
|
|
| 19 |
-1.83%
|
|
| 20 |
-2.94%
|
|
| 21 |
-5.03%
|
|
| 22 |
-11.14%
|
|
| 23 |
-11.35%
|
|
| 24 |
-13.68%
|
|
| 25 |
-14.88%
|
|
| 26 |
-15.41%
|
|
| 27 |
-16.68%
|
|
| 28 |
-18.72%
|
|
| 29 |
-19.25%
|
|
| 30 |
-21.37%
|
|
| 31 |
-32.45%
|
|
| 32 |
-36.63%
|
The Luckiest Teams
1. Houston Texans
The Texans dominated New England 41-21 in a game our Expected Score had as a 32-20 win for Houston. That lowered the Texans’ Luck% from 40.6% to 35.4%, but isn’t enough to drop them off the top line.
This week’s Texans vs. Packers game may determine who ends up at the top next week, of course pending other results.
2. Minnesota Vikings
After a Week 6 bye, the Vikings host Detroit in an important NFC North battle.
3. Atlanta Falcons
Like the Texans, the Falcons came away with a convincing win in Week 6. In this case, it was a 38-20 win over divisional-foe Carolina. That lowered Atlanta’s Luck% from 29.6% to 25.9%, which wasn’t quite enough to drop them below the Chiefs, who were on bye.
The Unluckiest Teams
30. New Orleans Saints
New Orleans got obliterated by Tampa Bay 51-27 in the highest-scoring game of the season.
The Saints falling from 29th to 30th was less about their misfortune and more about the Bengals finally getting a lucky result in a 17-7 win over the Giants that was closer than the final scoreline suggests.
31. Los Angeles Rams
Los Angeles had a Week 6 bye and remains in the bottom three.
32. Tennessee Titans
The Titans were actually lucky in Week 6 to not lose by more given our Expected Scores had them as a 17-11 loser compared to the actual 20-17 scoreline. That moved their Luck% up from -39.5% to -36.6% but wasn’t enough to let them leapfrog the Rams.
After five games, the Titans sit at 1-4. By Expected Scores, though, they’ve played more like a 3-2 team with Expected Score victories over the Packers and Jets that were actual losses, while playing the Bears closer than 24-17 final score indicated back in Week 1.
So, despite a small bit of luck in both Weeks 5 and 6, the Titans’ first three games were all quite unlucky. That leaves them as the unluckiest team on aggregate for another week.
_InlineAdBlockRestart